Well said, flurb, and I agree. Got to keep fighting the good fight, and someday you just may find yourself winning.
I don’t think it’s in lost cause below 1% chance territory. But IMHO it is in the lost cause 1 or 2% chance range, assuming you’re ok with calling those chances a lost cause.
Another issue with Texas and Florida, as opposed to a state like Georgia or Arizona, is the absolute numbers involved rather than the percentages. A 3 or 4 percentage swing is more manageable when it’s tens of thousands of voters rather than the several hundreds of thousands that would be required to flip Texas or Florida. In AZ or GA, a Democrat can focus on Phoenix or Atlanta and win. A Democrat focusing on just Houston or Miami won’t have the same return on their investment. The problem isn’t a whole order of magnitude larger, but it’s close.
And see:
Good Lord, maybe I just wasn’t paying attention but I had not heard that Trump is promoting Herschel Walker to run in the Georgia Senate race and that he’s frozen the field while he makes up his mind. Such a Trump move.
Yep, Walker would have a strong chance of picking up a Senate seat in GA. It’s a pity he’s an R, and I personally abhor this notion that the only qualification for being a Senator is that one is famous.
The good thing is that GA is full of transplants and it’s been a long time since Walker played football.
From what little I’ve seen from Herschel Walker speaking about politics, if he runs, it’s very possible he’d say something dumb enough to give his opponent (Warnock, right?) a leg up. But we’ll see.
40 years since he helped UGA win their last national championship. Still, a lot of those transplants have become fans and/or are sending their kids there, so I don’t discount the built-in fan base he would have if he got into the race.
As a Texan, where we’re all apparently waiting for Matthew McConaughey to decide whether he wants to run for governor, I can’t say I’m a fan of celebrity candidates. I just hope that the media has learned from Trump to treat celebrity candidates like real candidates, rather than a novelty.
Hadn’t heard that about Matthew McConaughey! Hmmm. Here’s more:
I have nothing against celebrity candidates, as such, if they have a brain between their ears, have actually given some thought to public policy, and are running for a better reason than ego.
I see no indication that McConaughey doesn’t fit those qualifications. I’m pretty sure he’d do a better job than Abbott. If he does run, presumably as an independent, and the Democrats sit the race out, he would probably even have a decent chance of winning. I don’t think there’s any Democrats that have a chance of winning, not even Beto. IMHO we should run Beto if McConaughey sits it out, or the Democrats should sit the race out if he does run.
Has McConaughey taken any stands or expressed any views on the important public issues of the day? Where do you think he stands, if anywhere, on the American political spectrum?
He’s into Jordan Peterson. That can’t be good:
In trying to figure out what’s going to happen in the midterm, it’s easy to forget that there are elections this year. Off-year elections have sometime been a harbinger of things to come – big Republican wins in VA and NJ state races in 1993 foreshadowed the Republican romp to follow in 1994.
In that vein, the Democratic win in the special election to fill NM-01 is heartening. The election was called to fill the seat vacated by Deb Haaland when she became Secretary of the Interior. A Democratic win wasn’t unexpected – the district has been voting Democratic for several cycles. But the 25 point margin strongly exceeded expectations. Just one data point, but a hopeful one for Democrats facing the midterm curse next year.
When it’s used as a vehicle for starting at the top, I find it somewhat objectionable. Maybe start as mayor of Austin or state rep., Matthew, and show everyone what you’re about. I’m guessing it’s not much more than a half-baked personal philosophy and ‘folksy’ solutions to complicated problems.
It is, I suppose.
But I can’t help but notice that in the 4 special elections since Biden won, the GOP over-performed in GOP-leaning districts and the Democrats in Dem-leaning ones. I wonder if this is just another sign of the increased polarization. Or perhaps that “lean” based on past races isn’t as useful anymore.
If so, looking at the seats in play, it would be potentially good news for Democrats in NH and NV, neutral in AZ/GA/PA/WI, and bad in NC/OH/MO/FL (using the “top 10” list from above).
Basically if every state just mirrors in 2020 result in its Senate race (which has been more and more common as ticket-splitting fades), Democrats would gain two (PA and WI), but have toss-ups in defending GA and AZ. But if the national margin moves even a little bit then they could easily lose AZ and GA without picking up PA or WI.
ETA: Or to put it more bluntly, Biden won 60% to 37% in NM-01 in 2020. Stansbury won 60.3% to 25.7% this week. We seem to be in an “all races are national” environment right now.
I think Dems are likely to hold both Arizona and Georgia. Kelly and Warnock are both strong, appealing candidates.
That was exactly my takeaway. From a partisan standpoint it’s a fine result. But taken with the others it’s worrisome nationally, if for no other reason than it hints gerrymandered districts (of which there are many) will continue to be non-competitive.
AZ/GA/NC will be two years bluer; they’re moving ever so slowly in that direction. PA/WI are really worrisome because they’re bluing even slower than that (more of an addition by subtraction process in those states). But, yeah, I agree that all races are indeed national right now and election night will be a nail biter. I think I’d settle for 52-48 when the dust settles and we begin the stretch run into 2024 when Orange Man gets Dems back out in monster numbers.
I hope our elections are just fair and free by then.
I don’t think there’s much evidence that NC is “bluing,” at least not at the federal level. Trump slightly increased his vote share in 2020, and Tillis won with almost exactly the same percent of the vote as his last race in 2014. AZ and GA may be on a better trajectory, but even that is tenuous.