Assuming Washington wins in the late game, we will have 5(6) unbeaten teams fighting for 4 playoff spots
Georgia
Michigan/Ohio State winner
Florida State
Washington
Oklahoma
Just to start this thread out in late October I’ll throw out a few prompts
Which team is most likely to lose? I’ll go with FSU. They have not impressed me at all this season.
What 1 lose team could edge out an undefeated team? If Texas dominates Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship they could jump FSU. Likewise if Oregon dominates Washington in the Pac-2 championship.
Is there a way for the Michigan/OSU loser to get in? I don’t think so. With this field this year, you have to at least go to your conference championship game.
First playoff rankings are out
1 THE Ohio State Universtiy
2 Georgia
3 Michigan
4 Florida State
5 Washington
6 Oregon
7 Texas
8 Alabama
9 Oklahoma
Let’s be real, It will be the Michigan/Ohio State winner that makes the playoffs so let’s call it
1 Michigan / Ohio St
2 Georgia
3 FSU
4 Washington
Washington has played like crap the last 2 games but 3 of their 4 next games are against ranked teams and it is assumed they will play Oregon in the Pac-2 Championship game so if they win out they will be ranked #3 or higher. I’m still trying to figure out why everyone loves Florida State. By now they are in by default by being an undefeated Power-5 school but if you want the best 4 teams in the playoffs they should be jumped by 1 loss teams once the season is over.
Talking about one-loss teams, I suppose Oregon, Texas, Alabama and Oklahoma all have a chance to make it if they win their conference championship. Whoever loses between Michigan and Ohio St cannot play in the Big10 championship (assuming both are undefeated when they meet) so can we assume the loser is done?
Didn’t Alabama win its most recent national championship after not even making the SEC championship game? If the Ohio State/Michigan loser has no other losses, don’t count them out of the playoff just yet - especially if Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.
It was 2017. It was a weird year in that there were 3 undisputed playoff teams and a whole bunch of also rans. The playoff committee used whatever bias they had that year to put Alabama in ahead of the rest. I just don’t see that happening this year. Suppose Oregon beat Washington in the Pac-2 Championship and Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC championship and Texas beats Oklahoma in the Big12 championship. And FSU wins out. That makes 1 undefeated team + 6 one-loss teams that went to their championship game. There is no way the playoff committee picks the UM/OSU loser over any of them.
Except that Michigan’s only loss would be to the one undefeated team, and the other one-loss teams would have losses to teams that also had a loss. The fact that they are in conference championship games is, for the most part, irrelevant. It’s hardly Michigan’s fault that it is in the same division as the #1 team in the country.
Remember how the committee chooses the top 4:
(1) Six teams are selected
(2) The six teams are ranked against each other, and the top three get the #1-3 rankings
(3) Three more teams are selected, and added to the three left from step 1
(4) These six teams are ranked against each other, and the top one gets #4.
Back in 2008, Missouri beat Kansas to qualify for the Big 12 championship game, which it lost to Oklahoma, and then watched as the Orange Bowl passed them over in favor of Kansas - and because of the “you can’t have more than two teams from the same conference in BCS bowls” rule at the time, Missouri ended up in a Who Cares bowl.
There looks like there may be some great 1-loss teams but would any of them deserve a spot in the playoffs if we have undefeated Michigan/OSU, Georgia, Florida State and Washington?
Speaking of that, does Washington’s win tonight bump them ahead of FSU?
Second playoff rankings. Ohio State’s strength of schedule puts it above Georgia and Michigan. Washington’s strength of schedule puts it … behind Florida State?
I still gotta believe the Michigan/Ohio St loser is out as conference championships are a major criterium except so is strength of schedule and we see they dismiss that as wanted.
As for the one loss teams
Oregon, Alabama, Louisville take care of business and win the rest of your games PLUS your conference championship. Note if Oregon and/or Alabama and/or Louisville win their championship(s) that means that Washington and/or Georgia and/or Florida State will not be undefeated (assume they win out) so at least one one-loss team gets in up to 3 one-loss teams.
Penn State and Ole Miss has to knock out an undefeated during the regular season.
Texas cannot make space in the top-4 with their championship like Oregon, Alabama and Louisville so they just need to win and hope.
It may depend on the four teams. The Ohio State-Michigan loser’s only loss would be to one of the four teams. Meanwhile, how would that team’s wins compare to, say, the ACC champion’s wins?
Keep in mind something else; assuming the Ohio State-Michigan winner is ranked in the top three and the loser isn’t, then if the loser is Michigan, the Big Ten’s representative (and also Michigan’s AD) doesn’t get to vote on the fourth team, but if it’s Ohio State, then he does.
It’s 41 (Wash) vs. 58 (FSU) not exactly a huge difference. Georgia is 90 and Michigan is 111. Why aren’t you bitching about that? SOS is a shitty metric anyway. According to your metric the Top 4 of the 5 undefeateds should be OSU, Washington, FSU, Georgia, and Michigan. We appreciate you moving us UP a spot.
Look at number 2 on the criteria. And yes, it seems to apply only when the committee wants to use it in their bias. Bottom line Washington should be in the top 4.
The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
Conference championships won,
Strength of schedule,
Head‐to‐head competition,
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.
Okay. That’s wonderful. Numbers 1 and 3 don’t apply to any of the unbeatens (as expected at this point in the season). Are there any common opponents? So my ranking of 1-5 should rule and we should be #3 and Michigan should be outside looking in. Again, at this point in the season. But I don’t see you complaining about UGA and UM being ranked higher than they should. You just want to complain that Washington should be over FSU. You cherry-picked a criteria, but only want it to apply to your team and one other, not all. Why?
It was more about Ohio St has an awesome SoS so they’re number 1 but that apparently doesn’t apply to Washington. I agree Washington should be number 2, I just picked on FSU because we have to hop them.
Or Georgia or Michigan apparently. But let’s face it, we all know ESPN has a big influence on the CFP and they have major contracts with the SEC and Big1$, not so much with the ACC and the now defunct PAC12.
It’s possible. A few years back, Penn State beat Ohio State and won the Big Ten championship. The committee picked Ohio State anyway, ignoring Penn States head-to-head win AND their conference title. Seems impossible and a gross injustice, but it happened.
It was in 2016, and it didn’t help Penn State’s case that it had two losses to Ohio State’s one, including a 49-10 loss to a Michigan team that lost to Ohio State.
True and, by the way, good research. Still, this is one of those cases where, “Too much thinkin’ ain’t good for ya’” Head to head, mano a mano, with all the cards on the table, Penn State beat Ohio state and won the conference title. Football has become a game for lawyers and legal briefs more than a sport. This one beat that one who beat the other one, etc, etc.
