Wow!!
To my surprise, ESPN hasn’t changed their hidden API for the Tournament Challenge and FiveThirtyEight hasn’t changed the columns of their NCAA forecast spreadsheets in the past four years. As a result, my hodgepodge of Python functions for calculating 538’s probability of each bracket (or groups of brackets) winning still work.
| Bracket(s) | % Probability of Winning |
|---|---|
| Jahiegel | 22.05 |
| Jahiegel 2 | 9.65 |
| Ponch8 1 | 7.12 |
| ThatBuckyGuy 1 | 6.43 |
| Railer13 3 | 5.94 |
| Third Bracket | 5.81 |
| Blue Tigers | 5.37 |
| Kimble 1 | 5.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion | 4.96 |
| Thing Fish | 4.80 |
| Jahiegel 3 | 4.47 |
| Purple Passion | 4.35 |
| Biotop | 3.01 |
| Frosty’s Triple Threat | 2.60 |
| Bullitt 3 | 1.84 |
| Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3 | 1.76 |
| Bullitt 2 | 1.69 |
| Jas09 | 0.69 |
| Bullitt 1 | 0.56 |
Combos with <0.5% chance of happening
| Bracket(s) | % Probability of Winning |
|---|---|
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3 | 0.49 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Frosty’s Football Flip | 0.24 |
| Blue Tigers, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3 | 0.21 |
| Bullitt 2, Third Bracket | 0.17 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Jahiegel 2 | 0.11 |
| Blue Tigers, Jahiegel 2 | 0.08 |
| 62Shoeless 1 | 0.08 |
| Bullitt 3, Third Bracket | 0.08 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Jahiegel 2, Frosty’s Football Flip | 0.06 |
| Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 2 | 0.05 |
| 62Shoeless 2 | 0.05 |
| Bullitt 2, Bullitt 3 | 0.04 |
| Bullitt 3, Jas09 | 0.03 |
| Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1 | 0.03 |
| 62Shoeless 1, 62Shoeless 2 | 0.03 |
| Purple Passion, Thing Fish | 0.02 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Thing Fish | 0.02 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, Thing Fish | 0.02 |
| Bullitt 2, Bullitt 3, Third Bracket | 0.01 |
| Railer13 2 | 0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1 | 0.01 |
| Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1 | 0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, 62Shoeless 1 | 0.01 |
| Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1, 62Shoeless 2 | 0.01 |
| Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 2 | 0.01 |
| Jas09 , Third Bracket | 0.01 |
| Bullitt 3, Jas09 , Third Bracket | 0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1 | 0.01 |
| Jahiegel, Jahiegel 3, Thing Fish | 0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, 62Shoeless 1, 62Shoeless 2 | <0.01 |
| Jahiegel 3, 62Shoeless 1, 62Shoeless 2 | <0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, 62Shoeless 1 | <0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Frosty’s Football Flip, 62Shoeless 1, 62Shoeless 2 | <0.01 |
| Bullitt 2, Bullitt 3, Jas09 | <0.01 |
| Purple Passion, 62Shoeless 1 | <0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Frosty’s Football Flip, 62Shoeless 1 | <0.01 |
| Purple Passion, Thing Fish, 62Shoeless 1 | <0.01 |
| Blue Tigers, Purple Passion, Frosty’s Football Flip, 62Shoeless 2 | <0.01 |
Thursday’s data dump: What teams need to win today to keep your bracket alive?
| Bracket | ESPN user | Must-wins Thursday |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Tigers | divemaster13 | (safe) |
| Purple Passion | divemaster13 | (safe) |
| Bullitt 2 | echo7tango | Arkansas and FAU |
| Bullitt 3 | echo7tango | KSU or (Arkansas and FAU) |
| Bullitt 1 | echo7tango | Arkansas and FAU and UCLA |
| Railer13 2 | teeare | Kansas St and Arkansas and (FAU or Gonzaga) |
| Kimble 1 | Kimble | FAU and (UConn or UCLA) |
| Jas09 | Jas0009 | UCLA |
| Jahiegel | ThisIsJoepardy! | Tennessee |
| Jahiegel 3 | ThisIsJoepardy! | (Arkansas and Tennessee) or (UConn and UCLA) |
| Jahiegel 2 | ThisIsJoepardy! | (safe) |
| ThatBuckyGuy 1 | ThatBuckyGuy | Arkansas or UCLA |
| Frosty’s Football Flip | Frosted | Michigan St and Arkansas |
| Thing Fish | espnfan0977140795 | Gonzaga |
| ekedolphin 1 | ekedolphin | (already out) |
| Ponch8 1 | Ponch8 | UConn or (Tennessee and UCLA) |
| Biotop | espn80563733 | Gonzaga |
| 62Shoeless 1 | 62Shoeless | Arkansas or UCLA |
| Railer13 3 | teeare | UConn or Gonzaga |
| Railer13 1 | teeare | (already out) |
| Third Bracket | divemaster13 | Michigan St or FAU or Arkansas |
| Frosty’s Firsts | Frosted | (already out) |
| 62Shoeless 2 | 62Shoeless | UCLA or (Michigan St and Arkansas and Tennessee) |
| Frosty’s Triple Threat | Frosted | Gonzaga |
Figuring out which of the 16 ways the games could go today was done by computer. I did the simplifying of the results myself, so there could be some errors there. If anyone cares enough to double-check, the raw data follows:
Thursday night results that can lead to bracket victories for each bracket
--- Blue Tigers by divemaster13 --- 16
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Purple Passion by divemaster13 --- 16
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Bullitt 2 by echo7tango --- 4
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
--- Bullitt 3 by echo7tango --- 10
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
--- Bullitt 1 by echo7tango --- 2
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
--- Railer13 2 by teeare --- 3
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
--- Kimble 1 by Kimble --- 6
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
--- Jas09 by Jas0009 --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Jahiegel by ThisIsJoepardy! --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Jahiegel 3 by ThisIsJoepardy! --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Jahiegel 2 by ThisIsJoepardy! --- 16
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- ThatBuckyGuy 1 by ThatBuckyGuy --- 12
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Frosty's Football Flip by Frosted --- 4
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
--- Thing Fish by espnfan0977140795 --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
--- ekedolphin 1 by ekedolphin --- 0
--- Ponch8 1 by Ponch8 --- 10
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Biotop by espn80563733 --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
--- 62Shoeless 1 by 62Shoeless --- 12
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Railer13 3 by teeare --- 12
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Railer13 1 by teeare --- 0
--- Third Bracket by divemaster13 --- 14
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Frosty's Firsts by Frosted --- 0
--- 62Shoeless 2 by 62Shoeless --- 9
Kansas St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Kansas St UConn FAU UCLA
Kansas St UConn Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas FAU UCLA
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee UCLA
Michigan St UConn FAU UCLA
Michigan St UConn Tennessee UCLA
--- Frosty's Triple Threat by Frosted --- 8
Kansas St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Kansas St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St Arkansas Tennessee Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn FAU Gonzaga
Michigan St UConn Tennessee Gonzaga
Everything you need to know for tomorrow about the brackets still alive:
| Bracket | ESPN ID | Prob to win | Must-wins on Friday | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble 1 | Kimble | 21.14% | HOU | HOU > ALA |
| Ponch8 1 | Ponch8 | 15.91% | — | CONN > ALA |
| Railer13 3 | teeare | 11.45% | TEX | TEX > ALA |
| Blue Tigers | divemaster13 | 10.83% | — | ALA > TEX |
| Third Bracket | divemaster13 | 10.06% | HOU and CREI | HOU > duke |
| Jahiegel 2 | ThisIsJoepardy! | 7.62% | ALA and HOU | ALA > HOU |
| Thing Fish | espnfan0977140795 | *7.05% | — | GONZ > ariz |
| Purple Passion | divemaster13 | *5.62% | — | ALA > TEX |
| Biotop | espn80563733 | 3.59% | ALA | ALA > GONZ |
| Frosty’s Triple Threat | Frosted | 3.37% | ALA | GONZ > ALA |
| Bullitt 3 | echo7tango | 3.36% | — | ku > KSU |
Lowercase team names indicate eliminated teams (except for Duke, where it also serves as an insult); bracket probabilities with * includes half of a 0.06% chance of a tie
I turned off the UCLA - Gonzaga game with about a minute and a half left, thinking UCLA was toast. It sounds like I missed a hell of an ending. One of these days I’ll learn…
And GO K-STATE! That Markquis Nowell is on fire!
Another night, another bracket going from “best chance to win” to “eliminated.” Who’s next?
| Bracket | Win | Must-wins this weekend |
|---|---|---|
| Ponch8 1 | 26.80% | UConn |
| Railer13 3 | 24.38% | Texas |
| Thing Fish | 19.00% | Gonzaga |
| Blue Tigers | 13.84% | UConn |
| Purple Passion | 12.50% | Gonzaga |
| Bullitt 3 | 3.48% | Kansas St and Miami |
Flow chart for the winner, in not-so-handy text form:
Start: TEX win it all?
→ Y = Railer13 3
→ N = GONZ make the final?
→ Y = Thing Fish
→ N = CONN make the final without both losing to KSU and beating MIA in the F4?
→ Y = Ponch8 1
→ N = MIA and KSU meet in the final OR KSU beat CONN beat MIA (as above)?
→ Y = Bullitt 3
→ N = CONN make the Final 4?
→ Y = Blue Tigers
→ N = Purple Passion
They put a microphone on the brother of Markquis Nowell of Kansas State? That’s bordering on ridiculous.
This is a good game so far. At halftime it’s FAU 42 - KSU 38.
And Cinderella continues to dance. Florida Atlantic defeats Kansas State, 79-76!
FAU outrebounded KSU 44-22 and was 18-22 from the line. So despite 22 turnovers, they won the game.
And I have no idea why Markquis Nowell did not have the ball in his hands at the end of the game.
And a complete domination of Gonzaga by UConn. Huskies looking great.
Updated probabilities, most of which can be directly read from the FiveThirtyEight predictions page at this point:
| Bracket | Win | How they win the pool |
|---|---|---|
| Ponch8 1 | 53.59% | UConn makes final |
| Blue Tigers | 24.20% | Neither UConn makes final nor Texas wins it all |
| Railer13 3 | 22.22% | Texas wins it all |
Wulp, I’m out of it. Not surprising.
That San Diego State - Creighton game had a great finish! Before the final play I was envisioning another 1992 Grant-Hill-full-court-pass-to-Christian-Laettner type of finish.
Hello! Do you know Ponch8? We’re a Basketball Tournament Pool contestant. People still don’t recognize us, but…
That game winning shot by San Diego State was just beautiful.
And in the “misheard cheers” department, while I was in the kitchen working on dinner, I heard my wife in the other room yell “Let’s go Aztecs!” Except it sounded an awful lot to me like “Lets go have sex!” 
I am the winner of the pool, no matter what happens in the championship game. Celebrate good times, come on! Ponch Sings Celebration - CHiPs - YouTube