The key thing is, whether something is good or not has next to no bearing on whether it wins the award.
Fraser will win because it makes the best story.
I don’t know about that. Austin Butler won the BAFTA. It’s a 50/50 between those two.
You also can’t write off Colin Farrell. I haven’t see the movie, but sometimes it seems like they just think somebody is due one at some point in their career and this is as good a time as any.
Here’s another interesting site: https://www.goldderby.com/charts/combined-graphs/oscars-winners-2023-predictions/
I don’t understand what that site supposed to be. It has EEAAO at 6/1 against for best picture, that’s obviously massively wrong. All the odds and percentages are completely wrong.
It is no great work of art but hands down it is the most entertaining movie I’ve seen this year. The rest of the family are in agreement which is pretty unheard of. We came out of the cinema with grins a mile wide and couldn’t stop singing its praises at the restaurant afterwards.
I learned nothing from it but I had an absolute ball. I would understand completely if the academy awarded a more “worthy” film but if it gets the nod I wouldn’t be at all surprised.
What category is that? There’s no category for “overall appearance and craft.”
Well, there is. It’s called Best Picture.
Yeah, those odds are weird, particularly because the numbers that are supposedly their source are right next to them and massively favor EAAOO.
Per what you wrote: Best Visual Effects; Best Film Editing; Best Cinematography
At 6/1 it has the best odds, which seems to be the consensus among observers, that it is favored to win. But since the result won’t be based on past results or public sentiment, but on the Academy voters ballots (and there is no exit poll for this), the odds are spread.
Personally, I like the graphic view. It sort of matches up with what I’ve been seeing in publications and prognostications since the nominations were announced.
Maybe I’m old, but having a “celebrated TikTok personality” dressed like a Mad Max extra providing some backstage coverage of the pre show seems a bit … desperate? I mean, how much of the TikTok audience is tuning in to ABC, anyway?
My two bits about Top Gun: Maverick - yes, incredibly entertaining. Yes, very well made. And I say a considerably better movie, story-wise and overall, than Top Gun was. Sure, there’s no way TG:M is going to win Best Picture, but I have no issue with it being nominated, nor with the screenplay getting an Adapted Screenplay nod.
It’s not a trippy mind-blower like EEAAO, or an Irish Civil War allegory like Banshees Of Inisherin (and honestly I didn’t get that angle anyway), or a visceral anti-war classic remake like All Quiet On The Western Front, or a personal Spielberg story like The Fabelmans, but you know what? That’s okay. I think TG:M was an objectively well-made, objectively good film, and I’m fine with it getting a little Oscar night love.
Well said.
FTR, I don’t think Top Gun: Maverick should win the award for Best Picture. However, if the question is whether it deserves to be among the nominees, the primary criteria ought to be whether those with deep investment in the film industry (the bulk of the Academy voters) think it exemplifies something they are proud of, whether that is artistry, craft, entertainment, or even business excellence.
Well that Hugh Grant interview was awkward. I never watch these things, but picked the right time, I guess.
You’d almost think a movie that was worthy of being nominated in many categories of filmmaking might be worthy of nomination for being a really good overall movie.
It’s hardly a new phenomenon; both Avatar movies have been nominated for Best Picture, and I didn’t think either was as good as Top Gun Maverick.
He seemed completely unprepared for the “Who are you wearing?” question.
6/1 against for EEAAO is massively wrong. That’s a 14% probability of winning. Check any other source - the correct market odds imply >90% probability of winning.
There is a well-defined market for betting like this, and all of the odds on that site are wildly wrong.
You may like the graphic view, but the underlying data are complete nonsense.
I just read an article about Jamie Lee Curtis that said she walked down the aisle with her 75 year old husband. I thought, “Huh, she married a guy older than her by a lot.”
:smack:
It’s Christopher Guest! He’s 75! Spinal Tap are in their 70’s!
My kids started watching “Better Call Saul” this past week after finishing “Breaking Bad” a few weeks ago. They were very critical of the acting chops of the lady who plays Mike Ehrmantraut’s daughter in law.
The lady is of course Kerry Condon, the odds on favourite to win the Oscar tonight for Best Supporting Actress.