Honestly, I have no idea. I don’t usually have to use it. I won’t have to if the INTERNET WOULD STAY ON. I lost it around 9:22 this morning (when I was attempting to pretend to normalcy by going back to work) and it came back on ten minutes ago. Optimum, you’re such a tease. And not in a good way.
There’s now a storm forming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. I’ve been watching Accuweather tonight, and the concern is that it’ll develop quickly, and could bring very heavy rain to parts of Florida: the forecasters are saying it could be as much as 30" in some areas, over the course of several days next week.
I was just thinking of what a shit summer it’s been here this year. Either blazing hot and dry as a bone for weeks, or raining raining raining. Nothing in between. Looks like we’re in for a shit fall too.
The expected rainfall is much less:
I just saw an article in my local newspaper that says the entire length of the Blue Ridge Parkway in VA and NC is closed until further notice while the Park Service does damage assessment. Apparently there is significant to catastrophic damage, particularly from Milepost 280 to Milepost 469.
Grandfather Mountain is closed until further notice as well.
No fall foliage outings this year.
That new storm is now TD14, and expected to become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Milton. The initial official forecast is to stay just below a major, but the NHC notes that it is likely to have to increase their forecast. Right now the cone covers virtually the entire peninsula. The details will matter a ton, of course.
If it goes a little south of the initial track, and flattens out a bit, it could look like Wilma. I don’t want to go through another Wilma.
When Helene was coming, I used my IPhone’s weather app to check the wind in the area, and you could see the tight circle of the eye out over the gulf.
This new storm has its own eye, and it’s tightening up.
And this cone isn’t very welcoming.
Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie are both out in the middle of the Atlantic - nowhere near any land. However - the remnants of Kirk could hit France and western Europe in the next few days.
I finally heard on social media from an old high school girlfriend who lives in Asheville. She said they still don’t have running water, and described it as “big T trauma”. (with apologies to @BigT; he didn’t cause any problems for the Carolinas).
Meanwhile, Florida has preemptively declared a state of emergency for 35 counties in anticipation of Milton.
Crap, we still haven’t gotten the propane we ordered before Helene. We’ll need it to run the generator when the power goes out. So as of today, we’re minimizing cooking with the stove, and use of the clothes dryer. The power’s already flickering, because blackouts aren’t that unusual here. We could be boned. Come on, Suburban Propane!
Good luck w your propane.
I’m out of FL right now, but coming back tomorrow = Mon. Just in time for the excitement to start the next day. Greater Miami seems to be sorta gritting our teeth ref Milton. Current suggestions are lots of rain from Tue going forward until Sat = 2 or 3 days before Milton passes to 2 or 3 days after.
Right now the wind risk doesn’t seem too serious here; the bigger blows on the east coast will (probably) be farther north near Melbourne / Cape Canaveral. We’re sitting at 50/50 for winds breaking into the official Tropical Storm standard of 34kts = 39mph.
But memories here are strong that one of our more recent destructive hurricanes was Wilma that also attacked greater Miami from the west, not the east. It wasn’t disaster damage anywhere but it was widespread minor damage like ripped up roofs and downed trees, coupled to widespread power outages taking 1-2 weeks to fix. Ugh.
Swell~my slightly older rocket scientist brother lives in a house on stilts in a swamp on Merritt Island.
He’s probably in for a bit of a ride.
NHC are officially calling it Hurricane Milton now:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
You might get some storm surge from Hurricane Kirk. It’s not expected to make land, but it is still pretty big and will have some impact.
Meanwhile, Milton is tracking to go across Florida from the west. Except for 4 years (the Trump presidency, actually), I’ve lived in Florida since I was born in ‘78. I don’t ever recall a direct hit to the Tampa Bay region from the Gulf (I thought currents kept it safe), but that’s what it’s looking like.
(Googling confirms this. We have to go back to 1921 to find a direct hit on Tampa)
From west to east Milton looks like it’s going hit the wife’s family one after another. Starting with cousins in the Fort Myers area.
Wilma was my first real adult storm as a homeowner. The first time the eye passed over me. I remember like 95% of the traffic lights in Broward were missing. Like…not a single one at most intersections. I was lucky and got power back after 2 days.
I looked up her track yesterday. A few models keep Milton south until he’s close to the west coast, and it’s going to make me nervous if I have to wait to see that northern turn!
I’m about 120 miles north. It’s a big variable where in that range this thing hits, but the cone of uncertainty contemplates basically the entire western border of the state. Most of the predictions I see, however, look to be north of Ft Meyers. Not to say it won’t be affected, but I don’t think it will get a direct hit.
Me, on the other hand? I’m thinking I should stock up on provisions tomorrow.
You would be a wise man to do so.
I wouldn’t want to be a lineman right now. Here in the area of Helene linemen from states away came in before the storm hit. Parking lots of old shopping malls and such have been filled with mobile trailers for the linemen to live out of and they’ve been here more than a week and still aren’t done. Now after this area is done they’ll probably have to go to Florida.