Having bought drinks for many a visiting lineman, they love it. They are absolutely making bank. Effectively double or triple-time plus all expenses paid. One of the guys I talked to bought a car and took his family to Disney for a week after the 2005 storms hit Florida. He said that, all told, he was in Florida for about 3 months that year. He was here for Hermine when I met him. From Tennessee, IIRC.
Remember in the Olden Times before AGW when the late-season storms were in the Atlantic rather than the Gulf?
I have been thinking about this. Are places that typically somehow get missed by hurricanes now in the crosshairs? Like Tampa/St. Pete and southern Appalachia? Heck, we even had the remnants of one come up the west coast last season. I have read a little on “tornado alley” shifting slightly east to more populated areas, due to climate change, but are hurricanes also changing from historical pathways?
Perhaps? But that may be going too far. Most of the seasons storms have not been too unusual in their tracks.
But we do know the frequency and intensity of storms is on a definite upswing.
It’s not like Tampa has never experienced a hurricane. Likewise I recall some of the same parts of North Carolina getting hit pretty hard by Hugo 30 years ago. Mostly hurricane force wind in western NC but unprecedented in the historic record to that point. Also, Pacific hurricanes were known to come up north from time to time.
The difference now is that such occurrences can’t be taken as once in a generation or once in a lifetime but possibly once a decade events. And when they do occur, they tend to be stronger.
I just read that Milton has been upgraded to a cat 5 hurricane. Batten down the hatches and best wishes to everyone out there.
I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how decent the hurricane coverage on the cable channel Fox Weather is. While the words “climate change” are never spoken or implied, the coverage is otherwise straightforward, in depth, and comprehensive, with clear explanations of what’s happened/happening without tipping over into sensationalism.
Fox? Really? I know, right? But Fox Weather does seems to keep the politics out of their coverage.
Yes, but only as it passes north of the Yucatan peninsula, then Cat 4 as it crosses the Gulf, and still predicted to be Cat 3 when it hits the west coast of FL.
Also note that Hurricane intensity categories, while useful, should be taken in context. Intensity is just about the wind speed, while the damage from a hurricane comes from more than just wind.
And even two different hurricanes with the same intensity can vary widely in size and effect. More wind does generally mean more dangerous and damaging, but it’s not the greatest correlation. Even some tropical storms can be sufficiently damaging to have their names retired (Allison and Erika, both in the last quarter century).
It’s a bit oversimplified but there are 3 things that we look for with any hurricane strike: wind damage, storm surge, and rain/flood. Much of the immediate impact from Helene came from storm surge (along the coast, anyway) and wind damage but much of the subsequent damage we’re seeing well inland is from flooding.
While the strength of the wind will matter a great deal in terms of how much immediate damage to expect, no matter if Milton lands as a Cat 3 or a bit stronger or weaker, the storm surge is going to be severe up and down the west coast of Florida. And much of the state look like it’s going to get another foot of rain.
Well, things are starting to get real.
There are mandatory evacuations in flood zones A & B (I’m in C), the grocery stores look to be as busy as a holiday weekend, and schools/courts are closed thru Wednesday (and probably the rest of the week, once the storm comes through). Tampa airport is closed tomorrow at 9 am.
And my office is closing down in about 20 minutes, with hope to be back Thursday (which, again, seems weirdly optimistic).
(Also, Asheville friend checked in again; they still don’t have running water).
For those of you in this area, the need to hunker is coming. Just be sure that, when the time comes, you hunker in the right direction (if you don’t do it down, you might get caught in a crosswind!)
For awhile I thought the “flash flood” chances on the map were overblown since they are at “40%” in a whole swathe of the peninsula, and indeed, reading the fine print means that it is a percentage of area that is within 25 miles of receiving a flash flood amount of water (whether or not it is actually flooded.)
On the one hand it doesn’t mean that there is a 40% chance that the entire peninsula will be flooded (or 40% of the peninsula will definitely be flooded.) But it means that there is a 40% chance that most of the peninsula will have to look out for floods before driving anywhere, along with some flooding of homes. Looks quite serious.
One of the striking things about the coverage I’m watching for Florida is the tremendous mass of debris that the authorities are desperately trying to clear away before it becomes missiles when the hurricane arrives.
This is an update about North Carolina from Rep Jeff Jackson. He’s in a unique position as both a congressman and an officer in the North Carolina National Guard.
It’s not THAT the winds a blowin… It’s WHAT the winds a blowin
Precisely.
As of the latest (5pm ET) update from the NHC, Milton now has sustained winds of 180mph, and will likely intensify even more overnight, before weakening somewhat (but growing larger) prior to reaching Florida.
Volvos are the worst.
“…You’re bleeding…”
Understandable based on the photos on this page. The water system took a serious beating.
I grew up in eastern NC, near I-40; up to a certain point, the eastbound lanes had double-sided signs, apparently so both sides of the interstate could be used in the event of an emergency. I’ve never been to Florida, so I don’t know if they have similar arrangements. I’m sure this has been asked before, but is there a reason they aren’t taking advantage of both sides of the interstate for evacuations?
Contraflow is remarkably more difficult to actually implement than you would think. It can be done but the plan has to be in place beforehand, state staff trained, etc.
Texas developed a contraflow plan following the total mess before Rita but has only used it sparingly. And it’s a real pain in the rear and ties up a LOT more personnel and resources than you’d think.
There are negatives to contraflow. It takes several hours to do - you need to clear traffic on that side, set up safe transfer points, arrange clear lanes for responders and other personnel to still make it to the emergency zones, etc. It also ties up a lot of state police setting it up and people still get really confused doing it, tying up resources that could be used elsewhere.
Basically, Florida studied contraflow (as in literally commissioned engineers and professionals) and thought the potential benefits weren’t high enough. There are pros and cons, so they went with the options they were recommended.