2024 Hurricane Season

Instead, they use the road shoulder to open up more lanes of traffic. (Also, tolls have been suspended)

(My bold)

https://www.fdot.gov/emergencymanagement/esu/default.shtm

Isn’t it sad that these kinds of videos even need to be made? Think of all the badly needed resources that get diverted into combating lies.

I am glad to see that there’s some effort by government agencies to get ahead of the next inevitable set of lies that will surround whatever happens with Milton.

That said, I’m amazed at how quickly this storm has intensified. I have friends down there in harm’s way and I hope it isn’t as bad as feared right now.

I loathe Ron DeSantis with the intensity of a thousand suns, but I had just the tiniest bit of respect from him when asked about “refusing” to speak with Biden or Harris.

Paraphrasing, he said he hadn’t been told that they tried to call. And he said he didn’t try to call them because ‘everything we’ve asked of the federal government we’ve received.’

In his press conferences, Desantis has been talking up the effectiveness of government. Like a public servant should.

You and me both! From reporting, speeds increased by 95 mph in 24 hours and by 130 mph in 36 hours.

I am struck by the irony that so much of the misinformation that needs to be de-bunked about the FEMA response to the hurricane is happening in and around Asheville in Buncombe county NC. Buncombe county is after all the place where bunk was invented.

I just checked-- the storm is at 897mb. (regular sea level pressure is 1012). Milton one of the top 5 strongest storms, most intense, in the Atlantic since records have been kept. This is in the company of Allen, the Labor Day storm, Katrina, and Camille-- in top 10. It’s stronger than Katrina, and Camille.

My wife is currently in Orlando on business, scheduled to fly home Friday. As New Englanders, our hurricane experience is limited.

I’m concerned about her. How worried should I be for Orlando?

Maybe she should consider flying out now, if at all possible?

Friday will be over a day after the storm passes, so there’s a fair chance of flight delays out of Orlando, but that’s tough to project at the moment. There’s also a fair chance many/most flights will go out as planned. I would not be confident at all about any flights into or out of Tampa for a while.

Orlando itself should be relatively ok. Milton is still projected to be at hurricane strength as it passes through Florida, so there will be strong winds and a lot of rain (maybe 6-10 inches), with the concomitant damage, but the worst damage will occur at the coast. I wouldn’t be surprised by widespread power outages and blown out windows.

But as long as she has a good, sturdy place to ride out the storm through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning and stays away from windows, she should be ok. It should go without saying but venturing outside during the storm should be avoided if at all possible.

Some tips: get some water, if possible at this point, along with a few days of non-perishable food. That may be difficult so close to the storm, though. Fill a bathtub with water, not necessarily for drinking but for flushing and for washing. Make sure her phone is charged and if there are power outages, consider conserving battery power (turning it off) for some stretches, though after confirming to you she’s ok mid-day Thursday after the storm has passed. If she has a portable battery, make sure that’s charged as well. A LED flashlight or lantern are nice to have as well (unless the battery is low, those last for hundreds/thousands of hours). Portable AM/FM radio is good for getting news if the power goes out. Get a decent book or three and/or a deck of cards.

She’s in Orlando for business, but I don’t think anyone will be doing business Wednesday through Friday–they will either be preparing for the hurricane or dealing with the aftermath. So I think she should leave either Tuesday or Wednesday if possible.

The in-laws are in the Orlando area. He won’t leave and she is very worried. I’m not worried because they are no where near water and live in new construction that is hurricane rated. It’s hard to reassure her because of her cognitive decline and what she’s seeing in the news.

If she’s going to leave, it would need to be today. It looks like Orlando International Airport is shutting down Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, as I wake up, I see that Milton has lost some strength (It’s now Category 4). It’s still really strong, though.

It’s something hurricanes do. They rarely stay at peak strength for more than a day.

Milton has a good likelihood of strengthening back to a Cat 5 (albeit not quite as intense as yesterday) but now spread over a wider area. Then doing that again tomorrow which would make it a strong Cat 3 or possibly a weak Cat 4 before it hits Florida but now covering a much, much larger area than it did yesterday.

While the “signature” wind speed number does matter, it’s more that huge area and the >10ft expected storm surge that has officials calling for people to get the heck out of the Tampa area.

In terms of physical safety, they’re likely fine, of course. Hurricanes cause relatively few direct deaths in land from wind. Most direct deaths are due to the storm surge (which is why anybody in Tampa should really get out if they haven’t already) and a much, much lesser number to due wind - getting hit by debris or collapsing structures or whatnot. If the storm is massive rainmaker (like Helene) of course there are also the subsequent flooding issues.

Even if they are physically safe, there’s a good chance it’s going to be unpleasant for at least a few hours if not days or weeks. It’s up to each person but especially for older folks, I’d think about getting out. It’s not like things are going to be back to normal for a while. Even in the Orlando area, it’ll be the better part of a week at best before things return to something resembling normalcy for most folks in the area.

My MIL owns a condo on a barrier island near Venice. Gaspirillo Bay Area? She goes most winters for part of the season anyway. Only assessable by a ferry. The island had really just recovered from Andrew and she was prepping to sell end of season when Helene hit. Her unit okay. Another building burnt down. Now? Expectation is the island will be past tense by Thursday. Insurance had kept covering them at substantial premiums so she’ll get something out.

No water yet here in Black Mountain, NC.

The misinformation network, however, is flowing hard and I have done my best to correct lies about FEMA, government response, etc.

Unfortunately the media or Facebook where many people are getting their “news” is more interested in promoting the lies ahead of the election. I have had more than one person tell me how Donald Trump and Elon Musk are going to save us.

As day after day goes by many of us are simply losing it.

And now Central Florida. I pray for those people. With the election coming the whole apocalyptic feel here is palpable.

I just discovered a website called Ventusky, which shows real-time weather patterns. The circular pattern of Milton is very evident.

The local Publix grocery stores are closing at 3 pm today. But there doesn’t look like panic in the aisles, and although the water was sold out yesterday they had lots of restock today. I picked up 4 gallons.

The courts also finally decided to close Thursday and Friday.

The weather has slightly cooled off (which is nice. It’s been consistently in the mid 90s; we’re down to about 85 degree Fahrenheit now), but it’s still humid. The sky has been covered with dark clouds all day, but there’s no rain or wind.

Tomorrow, which is the last day before it hits, is expected to be rainy. I’m sure we’ll feel the drop in pressure. And we’ll get gusty weather before Milton hits (“feeder bands”, my ex and I would call out, whenever we felt a big breeze), so it will seem more ominous.

Today is literally the calm before the storm.

Yeah, it’s pretty nice out. I always wonder what the animals are thinking. Tuesday: “Whoa, this is great.” Wednesday: “What the hell?!”

Can you just fill some pots and stuff from the tap? I assume the utilities will all be fine until the storm actually hits…

I have a similar thought. I suspect that they know something’s up when the barometric pressure drops, but that’s just my unsupported assumption.

Then again, there’s at least one article online (so it must be true!) that describes the phenomenon.

So far, though, my cat isn’t impressed. She’s napping as usual.

I plan to fill the bathtub for use as “grey water”.

Where I’m at, yes. But other areas have decided otherwise.

For example

The NHC just released their 5pm ET update:

  • Milton has restrengthened, and is back to Category 5 for now, with maximum sustained winds currently at 165 mph.
  • It took a bit of a southeastern wobble today, and the forecast cone has been adjusted slightly south, but landfall on the west central Florida coast, somewhere around Tampa Bay, is most likely.
  • Its fields of hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to double in size in the next 24 hours.
  • It is still forecast to weaken a bit tomorrow, but (a) it’ll still be an intense, major hurricane when the eye reaches the Florida coast, and (b) high winds, heavy rain, and strong storm surge will extend well away from the forecast cone.

I can tell you from unambiguous personal experience that dogs can tell when a big earthquake is coming – at least an hour beforehand, in my case. I am sure wild animals know that something big and bad is headed toward them before hurricanes arrive. Whether they can do anything about it, I guess, depends.