2024 Hurricane Season

It’s an amazing book, and I recommend it–and in defense of the donor, there were also high school kids who (in theory, anyway) might be getting books from the donation. But I read it in my forties, and it was a lot for me then; I would be really, really leery about recommending it to any high schooler.

Thanks. I was iffy on it, but I think I’ll try it now. I’m not completely ga-ga yet.

Nerves are getting frayed here. The FEMA misinformation has definately gotten a foothold. Weeks without potable water are putting a strain on everyone. The cleanup has been progressing but as day after day goes by I have noticed frustration growing and tolerance retreating.

I try to stay positive on the job but day after day after day of heavy business with fewer team members is taking its toll. We need a break, the customers need a break, the clean-up and repair crews need a break. Of course there is the occasional day off, but that is spent dealing with one’s own problems. So not really any break at all. I can’t even imagine how those who lost homes or worse are getting through this.

One day at a time.

Not sure how to stay strong with the extra stress of this frightening election hanging overhead. I can’t even retreat to my favorite mountain trails as they are all closed and trail maintenance/recovery/rebuild, understandably, is a very low priority.

Not in a good space today.

Ugh, sorry to hear that, @Biotop. That sounds miserable and frustrating. I know kind thoughts from a stranger don’t really help at all, but you have mine anyway.

+1. I know it doesn’t matter much to those having to go thru this, but know a lot of us are thinking of you all (and donating to help).

I’m so sorry, that sounds terrible, especially the can’t go to the trails part. :frowning_face:

Grrrrrr:

I hope you’re doing better, @Biotop! If it’s the grocery store I’m thinking of (HT on MA?), I was in there a couple hours ago.

re: now Hurricane Rafael. I’m in South Florida, but am flying to Dallas for a quick Thursday to Saturday trip. I’m hoping that the only impacts I get from the storm have to do with flying around the worst of the storm. My travel companion is a nervous flyer and I’m concerned that we’ll have more turbulence than normal.

Thursday will be fine. Saturday might not. But by “more turbulence” you’ll have more duration, but not more intensity.

We aggressively avoid intensity and only put up with duration where there’s no practical alternative. Which there often isn’t; we’re not going to go Dallas-SoFL via e.g. Chicago, NYC, and then FL just because it’s kinda bumpy everywhere in e.g. Georgia.

ETA: I just looked. The latest NHC & NWS maps suggest to me that Sat won’t be much different from Thu. Any turbulence in the US southeast is more due to jet stream placement and the various highs and lows over land than any influence of Rafael.

Thanks! Always good to have the voice of experience in this. The latest tracks are also showing Rafael staying further south. Hopefully this will help keep my friend calm.

The fear of reality is always worse than the reality itself.

These dark days it will be important to remember this about more than the weather.

LSL, your articulate, compassionate voice of calm reason enriches da Dope not only as a pilot whiz but also as a steadfast all-around human.
Well, except for that bizarre preference you have for sweltering temperatures and the blazing sun.

And wild wimmin. Don’t forget the wild wimmin. :grin:

Seriously, thank you. This thread is relevant to everyone feeling overwhelmed right now:

To follow up - the flight to Dallas Thursday was only slightly rougher than average, IMO. However, the pilots appears to expect worse - the fasten your seatbelt light was only off for about 20 min the entire flight, at which point the pilot suggested that it was a small window of time and that if you wanted to use the restroom or get up for other reasons, now was the time. We never got beverage service, and it was announced that it was because of anticipated turbulance.

The flight back on Saturday evening was smooth until we got somewhat close to Fort Lauderdale, at which point we had a few bounces. We were delayed an hour for take-off, but that was due to the incoming aircraft from El Paso. That was likely due to a strong line of storms between El Paso and Dallas.

It was amusing that Southwest notified us early that our flight might be delayed due to Dallas weather. It was an absolutely beautiful day in Dallas, which matched the forecast.

In any case - mission accomplished, and Rafael did not cause us any real issues.

And maybe make landfall in Florida. The odds are increasing, but it’s still not a sure thing. At their Wed 11/13 4pm ET forecast release, NHC upgraded the designation of the area to PTC 19: National Hurricane Center - PTC 19.

Some more IMO quality commentary on the range of possibilities for PTC 19 / Soon-to-probably-be-Sara.
From noon-ish on Wed 11/13:

From early morning on Wed 11/13:

Models and forecasts are trending weaker for future-Sara. This can change, but it’s encouraging for now. The earlier intensity guidance, as shown on Tropical Tidbits, had most of the models peak in the mid-level hurricane range. This morning, there is only one that even reaches category 1.

Basically, they seem to be picking up a more over-land route, which will disrupt/prevent some strengthening.

The north coast of Honduras is in for a rough go.