But were any of the hurricanes at Cat 2 or Cat 3 at this house?
Not as direct hits, no. But Michael was pretty bad.
This morning the track has shifted west. It’s now about 30 miles west of the house, which is not great since it will put us on the bad side of the storm, but who knows. The 11am today I think will be the one to watch. She’s still unstacked and the longer that takes to happen, the better off we all are.
I admit to being frightened of the rain flooding potential here in the steep Western North Carolina mountains. We have already had several days of heavy rain and the forecast is for up to 15 inches of rain in the next two days or so. A “high-risk flood event” is what they are calling it.
I’m in southern Palm Beach county near the ocean. So about the middle of the north / south extent of the total Miami metroblob on the east side of the Florida peninsula.
NHC has put out a tropical storm warning for the whole metro area. All 6 million of us. The wind potential is pretty limited, the storm surge risk is nil, but they’re expecting us to get 1 to 4" of rain. Which can lead to urban flooding. The winds ought to pick up to whatever speed they will sometime in the wee hours of Thu and stay that way for most of Thu daylight.
My prep is simple: bring in the patio furniture. Probably wasted effort, but I don’t have much to move.
We’ve had intermittent rain in the afternoon already that’s clearly the very outermost of the outer rain bands of Helene. Right now it’s gray, dry, and the slightest of breezes.
Some folks in metro Miami are sure to be flooded and sure to lose power. Probably not me but we’ll see. This’ll be my first event in my current residence and I’m thinking of it as a dress rehearsal for when we eventually get hit here for real.
As to @Zakalwe, he’s in for a blow. I fear you’re going to have some bad times with this one. Good luck.
Were I where I think you are, and were I inclined to evacuate, I’d be going to Baton Rouge.
I have evacuated in the past for hurricane warnings and my general attitude is drive far enough that I’m totally out of the storm’s influence and well beyond where the evacuees will go. I want sunny days, plentiful hotels with vacancies, and normal gasoline supplies. Then once folks back home have electricity, cell service, water, and gasoline, then I’ll come back. Whatever devastation occurred to my residence and stuff won’t be improved materially by trying to get back there before the infrastructure is back to normal.
Thus far I’ve been lucky and of my 3 evacs only one sustained damage to our neighborhood, and my own losses were limited to an entire fridge & freezer of food. But I was damned glad not to spend 5 days in the HVAC-free, no electricity, and no running water conditions like my neighbors had endured.
YMMV.
Good luck my friend.
I’m working from home this afternoon, and I’ve had the Weather Channel on, which is, of course, wall-to-wall coverage of Helene.
As an ad guy, I notice some very canny, point-of-need advertising for Generac’s backup generators, including a testimonial interview from some homeowners who’ve lived through hurricanes and power outages, and are glad that they now have a Generac. It’s too late, of course, to get one now, for this storm, but it’s a really smart place to be running their ads – if for no other reason, than to plant the seeds of “I want one of those, for next time.”
Of course, a Generac won’t help much if the storm surge has wrecked your home.
Latest reports I’ve seen are saying it could ramp up to Category 4 at landfall, with storm surge up to 20 feet.
I’m a dozen miles south of LSLGuy, and if I remember correctly, a bit more inland. I’m doing…nothing. Well, I brought a loose hose in from the patio. But my grill and lounge chairs are still there.
My local forecast is for sustained winds of 30mph and gusts up to 45mph. My area doesn’t even meet the requirements for a tropical storm warning, based on that:
An announcement that sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Blockquote
That doesn’t change the fact that I am under a Tropical Storm Warning, of course. Lots of people are going to get really, really, really bad impacts from this storm, but I don’t think it’s going to be in my part of town.
Oh dear. Cantore is in town.
Latest track has the centerline about 35-40 or so miles West. Putting us on the east side. Cat4 predicted now. ZakWife and I had a long discussion and ultimately decided to stay. It’s not going to be fun, but, good or ill, it’s our home.
Fun fact of the day (TIL): Tallahassee has never recorded hurricane force winds. I think that record will be broken, but who knows? As of the 8pm, it looks like we’re now in the 70-80% band for 64kt WSP - which is scary, but better than this morning.
Prep is complete except for some last-minute stuff we’ll do in the morning. All stuff we do here, no further errands to run.
Thanks for the good thoughts, @LSLGuy! I know what you’re saying, but getting a tarp on the roof as soon as possible can (and has for us) prevented a lot of secondary damage.
My route to work goes right by a Lowe’s and this morning, the entire back area was PACKED with semis (I counted 6, but may have missed one or two), with two sitting in the road waiting for space. On the other hand, Harbor Freight had a sign up saying “No generators. No tarps. No drop cords.” I just needed an adaptor for a v-plug - which is apparently a thing that doesn’t exist.
I’m 13 stories up 1/2 mile from the beach. You’re at ground level. Big difference in the collateral damage your patio furniture can cause versus mine.
Were I at ground level I’d be leaving mine out too.
Yeah, the patio furniture stays out, but I’ll strap the chairs and table together. It’s a screened porch and the table is heavy as hell. If that’s blowing around, I’ve got bigger issues than worrying about the furniture.
FYI, if you have an iPhone 14 or later, update to IOS 18.1, it includes satellite texting if the cell service dies.
Up at 'em this morning. Pulling in and securing items.
Centerline is now about 2 miles to the west of ZakHouse which take us through the eye, but probably avoids the worst of the eastern eyewall. Another 10-20 miles east would make a huge difference. ETA: ~5p.
Good luck.
Starting about 2am we’ve had gusty winds here in Palm Beach county. Now approaching 8am the local NWS says it’s 22 gusting 38 MPH. My own reading out on my balcony is 10-15 mph. I’m up high on what’s now the mostly windward side, but deep in the turbulent wind field immediately around the building. I’ll bring my anemometer with me when I go out this morning and try to get better readings closer to official conditions.
We had some rain overnight, and radar & NWS expect it to pick up again noonish.
Severe flooding is already occurring here in Western North Carolina and the hurricane is still to come. This will easily be the worst disaster in our area’s history. Some places may get over 25 inches of rain and in these steep mountains many homes and lives will likely be lost. I convinced my sister and wife to leave and I am staying in a hotel safe from the flooding. I am an essential worker-- I work in grocery and have to help get people food. Just a terrible situation.
Ah yeah, I forget you’re in a high-rise. I spent a nervous few hours in a category 1 storm on the 12th floor on Fort Lauderdale Beach many years ago. I had to wetvac water out of the living room because the sliding glass door was bowing in, allowing rain to get through. It was very scary.
I heard some strong wind around 6:30 this morning. It’s breezy but otherwise not remarkable here in west central Broward. I expect some squall lines and lots of gusts today. Glad I get to work from home, because there’s a big difference between watching the gusts and driving in them.
@Zakalwa good luck and stay safe today! Hope you keep power on.
I forget if you’ve mentioned it - have you been through a strong storm like this before? One common thing for people with a direct hit is to mistake the eye of the storm for the end of the storm. It is really calm in the eye, and it’s tempting to go outside. I did this during Wilma, to clean up some debris that I didn’t want flying around. But you have to keep a watch on the weather, because when the other side of the eye wall comes, it comes fast and hard. And the back half of the storm can cause more damage than the front half, because the winds are coming from the other direction. The first half of the storm is blowing trees and such in one direction. Now the ground is saturated, and the winds come from the other direction. It’s effectively wiggling trees and power poles, which makes them more likely to fall.
@Biotop - good job getting the family to somewhere safe! Hopefully when things start reopening and you start doing your thing, people can remember to be polite. I’d hate to be in a grocery store dealing with those customers.
Obviously nothing quite like this, but I have been through the eye of a storm - Francis in 2004 went right over Tallahassee, but as a TS. Nicole in 2022 same thing.
I find your attractiveness to hurricane eyes … disturbing. Please don’t move to where I am. 
A lot more have missed me than hit me.
Here in the area north of Tampa it’s been breezy, with some scattered rain. Nothing too bad, and I expect we’re going to escape any serious damage. The weather is predicting rainy conditions for the next 7 hours, with a thunderstorm to follow. Tonight will be a good night to be indoors with a good book.
I agree Tampa will probably be OK as to wind and rain. OTOH storm surge might be quite an issue for the waterfront and near-waterfront areas.
I’m in Henderson County NC and it’s getting bad here. The creek near my house flooded and they closed off the road. There are so many roads closed, the county ran out of barricades. The bridge is roped off with caution tape with a “high water” sign in front.
I heard a sinkhole opened up on I-26 near the French Broad River bridge. That’s fun.
And this is just the outer bands. The actual storm hasn’t gotten here yet. I’m having Hurricane Floyd flashbacks.