See also this thread for Debby-specific content:
And now it looks like it gave Canada a miss but may hit Iceland and Ireland. While still a cyclone it shouldn’t be that large compared to what they occasionally get anyway: as a matter of fact there is a storm just north of Ernesto that looks even more powerful than it is which was never a hurricane at all. They predict that the two storms will merge and then slide in between the islands relatively safely.
I’ve been down at the Jersey Shore for the week. Ernesto really churned up the surf. For a few days there were 6-8 foot curls. Today the ocean looks like a lake.
More and bigger hurricanes coming:
Here’s a similar message about the data and forecasts but with none of so-called “accu” weather’s hysterical hype.
Typhoon Shanshan is heading toward Japan and is expected to still be hurricane strength when it hits. I don’t know what the error bars are for its course and strength, but the median path seems to be Osaka in the path of 100 mph winds and exposed to a storm surge.
I’m not sure how bad it’s going to be because I can’t find anyone freaking out about it on the Reddit thread, but it seems that since the winds will be coming from the direct south, the surrounding islands will funnel the water into an almost perfect inverted “V” shape to exacerbate the surge.
Named Helene.
Nitpick:
Nope. Named Potential Tropical Cyclone (“PTC”) 9.
It’s expected to be renamed to TD 9, then Tropical Storm Helene then Hurricane Helene if the global weather evolves as expected. But not yet. Stuff still might change.
Watching the Weather Channel now and they’re showing a convergence of prediction paths through the Florida Panhandle; beyond that the various models start to diverge as the storm moves north, but the elbow of Florida seems to be the consensus landing place.
Digging into more detailed sites there is still some likelihood of it sliding further right/east. Because of the shallow angle of approach to the peninsular coast, that means a relatively small change in storm track can slide the impacts a long way south.
IOW: Tampa’s in no danger of taking a direct hit, but if the storm gets big enough and strong enough they could still see conditions resembling a pretty good tropical storm and surge even though landfall of the eye would occur 150+ miles north.
And we are in the middle of the cone as of 8pm tonight with the track showing the center line about 20 miles east of my house. Gonna be a tense few days here in the ZakHouse. Gennie is out and on the charger (for the electric start battery). Wife is going to do a little shopping tomorrow and I’m filling up the Jeep on the way to work (long lines this evening).
And, the NHC says that’s a distinct possibility. From tonight’s 11pm ET forecast discussion (emphasis mine):
Latest discussion from a blogger I respect. Which contains a bunch of commentary about eye landfall location uncertainty and the wide range of possible impacts due to that.
I’m in a coastal county just north of Tampa. Today the grand Pooh-bahs at the courthouse are convening to decide if they’re closed Thursday, and I’ve already been instructed by my office to lay out sandbags Wednesday after work.
Is it weird that I’m sort of rooting for it to move this way? I could go for a change of pace.
Be careful what you wish for.
One of my co-workers lived 2-1/2 miles inland in Fort Myers and not near any estuary or canal. After Ian was done they had to live in a 5th wheel trailer in their front yard for 2 years while their house was rebuilt from the foundation up. The ocean had been 6 feet deep throughout their house for over a day.
So based on the 11a track today, the actual center line of the track passes less than a mile from my house and it’s still expected to be a Cat3 or Cat2 at that time.
Frankly, we would leave, but I don’t know where to go - everywhere I have places is in the cone and I would still be worried about the house. The uncertainty is too large and we could end up worse than we are here. I’ve got a solid house, have done my prep (which pretty much guarantees the storm won’t hit here), and have resources to call on if I need help.
I’ve lived in Florida my whole life. I’ve been through lots of 'canes. I’d rather be where I know the people around me and I can help them or they can help me.