That’s hopeful…though I hope it isn’t just because the Overton window has shifted so far, and bad behavior is so normalized, that the youngsters don’t process it as “polarization.”
Interesting article in the local paper/website. I’ll link to it but it’s subscriber only. The gist of it is that New Jersey’s 7th district is too close to call. The incumbent is a Republican but it could very easily filp. The district is very purple. It was held by a democrat just 2 years ago. My feeling is that Kean still has an advantage but a large anti-Trump turnout may lead to his defeat. The race has been targeted by Musk’s PAC. So lucky me gets to watch those commercials when I’m trying to watch baseball.
I have a feeling that CO-8 will flip to Republican. Barbara Kirkmeyer barely lost in 2022 after saying no abortions for any reason then backpedaling. Gabe Evans is running a strong campaign and incumbent Yadira Caraveo has practically disappeared. Incidently, this would mean Colorado has a split delegation should the Presidential election come down to a vote by the House.
Over in CO-4, Lauren Buffoon will win a district that would vote for anyone with R after their name so at least 2 more years of competition for “Dumbest Person in the House”.
Does anyone friends/family/neighbors still remember the cluster that was Speaker elections? Anyone using that to lean D in their vote?
Unfortunately I believe the race will be won by Kean. It was a seat that could have been flipped. In the not too distant past the district had both a middle of the road Democrat and a centrist Republican as a representative. It’s my opinion that it was a mistake to run a progressive activist with no political experience in a purplish district. At least Andy Kim will be the next Senator.
So the Republicans took the presidency and apparently the Senate, but the House isn’t decided yet. Where is the best place to follow the House races that aren’t decided yet?
CNN has a tracker: House election results 2024 | CNN Politics
Currently it stands at 215 R to 205 D, with 218 needed for a majority. The remaining races would have to overwhelmingly break to the Ds for them to take over a House majority. Trump has also announced his intention to appoint two sitting House Republicans to his Administration, which will create temporary vacancies until those seats can be filled by special election.
Yes, minor miracle for the House to turn Dem. BUT it will likely be such a tiny GOP majority that they will never be able to do anything big the Dems dont like.
It’s been such a trainwreck with their current majority, I hope to see equal productivity for the next two years.
It looks like it might be worse. They might have a majority of 2 after trumps appoints a couple.
Even if the GOP has the exact same majority as the current Congress, I think the political dynamics will be very different. Johnson got repeatedly stymied on trying to pass a continuing resolution because a small group of hard-core Freedom Caucus members refused to vote for a budget that didn’t include cuts – which wasn’t possible because Democrats controlled the Senate and the White House. With unified control of government, they can pass the slash-and-burn budget of their dreams. And if it ever comes down to a small group of House Republicans standing between Trump and something he wants, he’ll come down on them like God’s hammer.
I also don’t discount the possibility that – after last week’s election – some House Democrats in swing districts may be ready to play ball. Democrats were remarkably unified this last session, but that could fall apart if those that barely survived their elections decide their constituents were trying to tell them something.
Not an unreasonable prediction.
God save the nation from political figures who read too damned much into the election results! 
Winning-party politicians who see a sweeping mandate for all their most extreme policies and losing-party politicians who see a sweeping rebuke of all their principles and policies, when the best evidence is that this was a tantrum by voters unhappy about inflation.
GOPers, especially in purplish districts: not everyone who voted Trump is MAGA, and many will be just as pissed at Trump at the 2026 elections if he causes inflation or a recession. Trump lost in 2020. Support the more extreme versions of Trump’s tariff or his economy-crippling fantasies of sweeping deportations at your peril! Most people do NOT want you to kill or cripple Social Security or Medicare.
Dems: don’t throw women, minorities, LGBTQ people, immigrants, and refugees under the bus to make the party more electable. You know immigrants are a key part of a vibrant economy, and while you may well have to compromise to get legislation through or keep legislation from being draconian, don’t compete with the MAGAts for how hard you can be on immigrants. Or just how white-middle-age-men-in-dark-suits you can be. You can’t win those two battles anyhow.
That’s how a lot of decent folks get pulled into the mud in politics, no doubt. After all, you can’t do anything or help anyone if you’re not elected, so you should do what the results suggest….
To comment on my own posting, I read an interesting article in the Washington Post, “What the numbers actually say about the 2024 election” With the intriguing subtitle “In what is likely to be the narrowest margin of victory since 2000, Trump probably benefitted from who stayed home.”
The author echoes my point:
We remain in the post-election period when consultants and politicians try their best to frame the results as a clear vindication of their own policy priorities and worldview. It is eternally remarkable how many people knew exactly how their side could have won and how many winning candidates are confident that voters agree with every element of their platform.[Snip]
So his 2024 win is not a referendum on inflation. It is, instead, a landslide, a sweeping mandate for Trump himself. A dramatic shift in the electorate itself. Etc. It isn’t, though. A review of the preliminary voting data, using The Washington Post’s Post Pulse models of the outstanding vote, shows that Trump’s victory was modest, as was the likely realignment in the electorate.
While tens of millions of votes have been counted so that the presidential results are known, millions of votes are still uncounted in California and hundreds of thousands in other states.
It is likely that, when all of the votes are counted, Trump will have received about half of the votes cast, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by about a percentage point. As a function of the two-party vote, Trump’s popular vote victory — his first — will probably be the smallest since Al Gore received more votes than George W. Bush in 2000.
Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle would do well to remember that and not either get too big for their britches (GOP) or throw out the baby with the bathwater (Dems)!
The article also has some interesting takes on the battleground-state results and the demographics of who voted for Harris compared to Biden 2020 as well as Trump 2024.
With Gaetz resigning his seat, is the House GOP count back to 217 rather than the winning 218?
Yes but the GOP will still get there. There are nine left to be called and three or four will go to the Republicans. It would be funny if he didn’t get confirmed for AG and out of a job.
Looking more closely at the nine left, the Dem leads in five and the GOP leads in four.
Two of the Dem and two of the GOP are super close and could truly go either way.
The Oregon race was just called Blue and it was a flip. Both sides have each flipped seven seats so we are back to even.
It’s now 218-209 GOP.
Hilarious. But that makes their majority say 4, minus Gaetz =3, minus the two reps trump has or will nominate for cabinet positions=1. Lose a couple more repubs and the Dems take back the House- at least for a while, anyway.
Four more calls for Blue and it’s now 218-212. We are still even as far as flips go.
Five races left to call.
IA-01 GOP leading
OH-09 Dem leading
AK-01 GOP leading (flip)
CA-13 GOP leading
CA-45 GOP leading but very very close
If things hold it will be a one seat gain for the GOP or exactly the same as before if CA-45 goes the other way. Of course this doesn’t include the two FL Republicans leaving.