Latest generic House polling: US House polls - The Hill and DDHQ
In New Jersey’s 9th district incumbent Bill Pascrell shockingly died at 87. It’s a solidly blue area but this throws some uncertainty into an area the D side shouldn’t have had to worry about.
Just saw that. As I understand it, because the vacancy occurred more than 70 days before the general election, party leaders will be able to pick a new Democratic nominee who will appear on the ballot.
Is “shockingly died at 87” sarcasm?
Or a lightning strike or an accident with a hairdryer.
Sarcasm hiding anger. He was guaranteeing he was going to die in office by continuing to run at 87 with health issues. Anyone who thinks that the answer would be to primary him out doesn’t understand how much influence the power brokers in this state have. I’m sure that’s the case in other states but here it’s been perfected into an artform.
This goes over the process. They have until August 29th or things get complicated. I’m sure they will meet the deadline. The Democratic Committee members who will pick the successor will not pick his opponent in the primary since they did not endorse him. His opponent made the primary all about Gaza. Even though the district has the largest Palestinian enclave in the U.S. the strategy failed.
https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2024/08/how-democrats-will-choose-rep-bill-pascrell-replacement/
This recent “generic ballot” poll from a well-regarded outfit is hopeful:
Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?
Aug 17-20 YouGov/The Economist Democrat +4%
Are there any intelligent estimates of how much over even Ds need to go to overcome the GOP districting advantage?
I’m not aware of any such estimates, but the redistrictings that have happened since the last cycle are largely a wash. Republicans managed to force through a gerrymander in NC that will net them 3 seats, while courts forced VRA-related redistrictings in AL and LA that will net Democrats 2 seats. NY tilted one Republican-held seat more blue.
Thanks for finding that. I was aware of the NC issue.
With two months to go until election day, House Republicans have only one thing they need to do before they can all go back to their districts to campaign – pass a continuing resolution (CR) that will keep the government funded after the current fiscal year ends on September 30. But it looks like they’re well on their way to fucking that up, with Speaker Johnson insisting that he will attach legislation to the CR that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. This is – shocker – an attempt to placate members of the Freedom Caucus. This approach is DOA in the Senate, which sets up House Republicans for either a humiliating climb down or shutting down the government. Neither look is good for vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts right before the election.
Yeah let’s shut the government down to make something illegal that’s already illegal. The GOP seems to think that continuing to fund the government should only come when concessions are extracted from the other party. I think they’re hoping that the chaos that comes with a government shutdown will be blamed on Biden and by extension, Harris. But to quote the immortal Rocket J. Squirrel: “that trick never works”.
And Mikey’s had to pull down the continuing resolution, which the House was supposed to vote on today, because he couldn’t get enough Republicans to support it and Democrats were almost all opposed.
I don’t know why he though this work. He, and McCarthy before him, have been down this road before – i.e. trying to bribe the Freedom Caucus into keeping the government operating by pairing the vote with some whack-a-doodle FC priority. But it’s never enough, because enough of their members just want to burn the whole thing down.
Of course, he probably knew it wouldn’t work and he can now blame the FC when he has to put a clean CR on the floor that will pass with majority Democratic votes. I rather doubt we’re going to see him holding the gavel next session, regardless of who holds the majority.
Newt Gingrich tried something similar, back in the day, and it blew up in his face, too. When will House Republicans ever learn?
Rhetorical question, obviously…