There are 3 upcoming House elections to replace members who took up a role in the new administration. These were of course drawn from very safe Republican districts, where the members had won with around a 20 point margin.
What do you think the chances are of any of these seats flipping? I think there is a chance, however slight, since there have been wild blueward swings in special elections in the past decade or so. I’m not sure if there have been any 20 point swings, but there have been double digit ones. And the enthusiasm gap now that Trump is not on the ticket and is indeed firmly in control of the government would seem to be higher, if anything, than in previous elections.
If I were forced at gunpoint to lay odds, I’d say there would be around a 1 in 10 chance that one of the seats will flip, due to the aforementioned structural issues but also black swan events like illness or a really horrible candidate. I’d say the chances that all 3 of these flip is quite less, even though elections are correlated to each other, because I don’t think that an enthusiasm gap alone can make up the 20 point difference. But it is possible enough for me to consider, and not just some foolish hope one clings to during disaster.
Much nearer to zero than 10%. Patronis is popular (FL1) and Fine (FL6) is a populist GOP demagogue running in a very conservative district. And I can’t see northern New York electing a Democrat. That’s a very rural, conservative area.
I agree. For all the horror that Trump’s actions are generating in some circles, there’s little evidence of the sort of widespread disapprobation that would flip an R+20 district.
This is something that has always puzzled me: Why does upstate New York always elect conservatives? They can see just across the border how people in Montreal live far better lives than they do.
The party faces long odds in the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s seat, but unique conditions could make the race more competitive than you think…To be clear, I’m not saying it’s likely, or even a coin flip. Democrats will be significant underdogs in NY-21, and winning would be a monumental upset and an embarrassment for the GOP. But I count at least three significant factors that could make this race look very different from a typical election year.
The first: Stefanik isn’t running. Her big margins of victory and gigantic campaign war chest will go with her to the UN once she’s confirmed. There are a number of Republicans vying to be the candidate, but none have her name recognition, her platform in the conservative media ecosystem or her fundraising ability.
So, for this one, it is okay to hope. But expect it to stay GOP.
The kerfuffle with Eric Adams could make those upstaters rethink voting for the Reps. There may be a small chance. No chance in Florida; those people are beyond hope.
As a Floridiot and a registered Dem I get solicitations from the Dems every day to donate to flip FL-6. They at least are retaining the hope it’s doable. Their cheerleading certainly sounds plausible. is it reality-based? Hellifino.
In 2024, the GOP candidate got 274k votes. The Dem candidate got 141k votes.
In 2022, the GOP candidate got 197k votes. The Dem candidate got 93k votes.
Turnout in midterms is usually about 20-40% lower than turnout in presidential year elections for congressional seats. Turnout in special elections is even lower than midterm turnout.
The democrats are never going to win the popular vote in FL-1 in a normal election. But turnout in special elections is very low. If the 141k democrats who voted for a candidate in 2024 are motivated, but the 274k republicans who voted for Gaetz are not motivated, then it could flip. But in special elections, generally the supporters of the party in power is less motivated to show up to vote. I remember in the special elections of 2017 and 2018 that the democrats did extremely well.
Take the house special elections of 2023.
In VA-4, in 2020 the Dem got 240k votes and the GOP got 149k votes.
In 2022, the Dem got 159k votes and the GOP got 85k votes.
In the 2023 special election, the Dem got 82k votes and the GOP got 29k votes.
Dem turnout in the 2023 special election was 34% of the turnout vs the 2020 presidential year election, GOP turnout was 19% in 2023 vs 2020.
Its possible FL-1 will flip, but the GOP will have to be really demoralized and all 141k Dems will have to show up to vote.
If GOP turnout in FL-1 special election is 1/3 of the presidential year turnout, then only about 90k Republicans will turnout out to vote. If democrats can get their turnout to be as high as midterm turnouts, then they may pull off a squeaker.
No one’s pointed out in this thread that Stefanik is not going to be resigning her seat. Trump has pulled his nomination of her to be UN Representative because they’re afraid the district will flip. This was partly due to a state senate seat flipping in Pennsylvania and partly due to a poll showing the D in FL06 was doing lots better than Trump’s result there.
There’ll be two other House special elections this year, but they’re to replace Democratic Congressmen who died in March.
I’m in FL1. The Dems have sent out four mailers in the last couple of weeks and have ads on the web today. Their focus is education and health care with some stop Trump, but mostly positive. The Patronis ads have been all Trump, but today are more about how the Dems hate Patronis and anyone who votes for him. All negative.
The recent Trump news has been so bad that Rs may not bother to vote. At least one can hope.
Huh? Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Fort Walton, and Destin are all increasingly dependent on tourism along with a huge military retiree population. That’s also where most of the people live.
FL-01 is still going to vote R, but it’ll be increasingly a LEPF* vote.
Not quite sure I catch your point with that phraseology.
If you mean the voters will give themselves a Pyhhric victory, ISTM that applies to every R voter everywhere. They have utterly f***ed themselves. And us.
The problem is that most are so deluded by propaganda that they may never figure out what they did. Even after they personally have been screwed.
I meant this. I actually listened to a Florida Senate committee meeting today and one of the County Commissioners for Walton County (home to Destin and Fort Walton) said that 70% of their economy is tourist-based. The hearing wasn’t about Trump, but it was telling. These people are hugely dependent on tourism and during the colder months especially, that means people from up north, including Canada.
But like you said, they won’t see it until it’s waaaaay too late, if ever.
Well, democrats lost both races. However they were closer than normal presidential or midterm races.
In FL-1, the democrat won 42% of the vote, vs 34% in 2024 and 32% in 2022.
In FL-6, the democrat won 43% of the vote, vs 33% in 2024 and 25% in 2022.
The main culprit is that turnout was lower in republicans vs democrats. In FL-6 for example, the GOP turnout was 39% vs the 2024 turnout (110k vs 284k), while Dem turnout was 58% vs 2024 turnout (83k vs 143k).
The New York Times just called the Wisconsin Supreme Court race for Democrat Susan Crawford. At this point she’s got almost 56% of the vote, with 63% of the votes counted.
Elmo dropped a lot of money in Wisconsin. I think that was deeply resented by many. I hope he keeps it up! He’s poison.