Hey, I got A’s in Statistics too…and the logic flaws in your premise are glaring.
Reread your post again, with a critical eye, and I’m sure that you’ll see them too.
-David
Logical flaws? Talk about understatement.
Victoria, where did you get your statistical training? Oral Roberts University?
Oh, and by the way, it’s over. You’ve been called home.
Victoria_Rose
Ignoratio elenchi fallacy. Perhaps along with your statistics course, you might consider a course in logic.
“It is lucky for rulers that men do not think.” — Adolf Hitler
Vic:
(1) Tom provided much more substantiation for his critique than you did that the prophecies in question have been fulfilled. Accordingly, it’s your turn to provide evidence that he’s wrong, or fold.
(2) Speaking as the guy who taught stats for an eon or two, your assumptions are faulty, and your probabilities are wrong. What you’ve done is like saying, “the very day after my friend and I had been talking about Bob Blank, I ran into him for the first time in twenty years. What are the odds against that?” In one sense, they’re astronomical. But in the sense that there are always a few zillion possible coincidences that could happen, the probability that some extremely unlikely coincidence will happen this week is fairly large.
Ditto the prophecies. How many prophecies are there in the Bible? Of that number, what’s the likelihood that 38 of them (assuming you’re able to counter all of Tom’s digging) would happen to be fulfilled in this generation, and zero will be proven false? A little bit of combinatorics ought to get us there in no time, once we’ve got the total number of prophecies.
Given that one of your prophecies is from Psalms, and appears to be descriptive of the writer’s present, rather than predictive, exactly what is the borderline of prophecy? How do we know whether a Scripture is being prophetic, or merely descriptive, allegorical, or whatever? Gotta get a good count, here.
That one is sort of a sure bet, isn’t it? I mean, doesn’t the Passover Haggadah say, “In every generation they rise against us in order to annihilate us”?
Actually, I ain’t so smart, I found that quote and many others on a page called Guilty, Guilty, Guilty which has lots of educational quotes about anti-Semitism, like:
“With all due respect to those dear people, God Almighty does not hear the prayers of a Jew,” Bailey Smith, founding father of the Christian Coalition
“I don’t know why God chose the Jew. They have such funny noses.” Ibid.
“The . . . Jewish people are . . .members of the synagogue of Satan.” from “The Synagogue of Satan,” a popular racist article posted on the LogoPlex BBS (sponsored by the Liberty Lobby)
“The Jews were pruned for the Gentiles’ sake, but they were also pruned for their disbelief.” From the latest version of the McGuffey Reader biology text [!!] favored by the Christian Coalition and other conservative groups for use in schools and home tutoring.
Now that’s science!
Christians have long hated Jews for being “Christ killers,” conveniently ignoring the fact that he was crucified by the Roman army. It is a deep and abiding hatred (see also Anti-Semitic Legends, which are Christian in origin) and is nothing new.
“I hope life isn’t a big joke, because I don’t get it,” Jack Handy
To elaborate on that, the only way your ‘statistics’ work out is:
- There are exactly 38 prophesies in the bible - no more, no less.
- They are completely unambiguous
- They must take place within exactly 50 generations, and can cross no generations.
- They cannot happen more than once.
- They must be independent events. i.e. having one come true cannot make it easier for another to be true.
Your list meets none of those criteria. Lots of those ‘predictions’ matched events that have happened many times, or have been true through all 50 generations. Other quotes from the bible simply don’t say what you claim (you say you’re a scholar of the bible, and it’s clear that you’ve never even read some or most of the passages you are using). Still others are vague enough that they could be interpreted as applying to many events throughout history.
Libertarian wrote:
Darn it, now I’m going to have to haul out the big scary Latin dictionary…
… And it says that “elenchi” means “pearl pendants worn as earrings,” which doesn’t help me at all!
So … what is the Ignoratio Elenchi fallacy?
The truth, as always, is more complicated than that.
First of all, that information is taken from Grant Jeffery’s book, “The Prince of Darkness.” They are not my words. Second, there are thousands upon thousands of prophecies in the Bible. Since you know the Bible so well, each and every one of you, and your spiritual eyes are supposedly open, you will know that is true. Third, RTF, how do I REALLY know that you actually TAUGHT a stats class. Forth, I did take a logic class. Fifth, I don’t go to Oral Roberts University. I wouldn’t even think of going there. The college I attend is ranked 41st in the nation, and we are only 4 or 5 professors shy of being considered ivy league. (That’s for those of you who think you’re hot shots.)
IF you were to study the scriptures closely and compare them with the events of today, you will see that they are right. Enough said.
God bless!
Victoria Rose
There is a reason for everything, no matter what happens to us.
Um, I really hate to quibble with people who are essentially agreeing with me, but the total number of predictions made in the Bible has nothing to do with the odds of any individual prediction coming true. Therefore, it aslo has nothing to do with the odds that this particular conjunction of predictions has (or has not) come true. To be fair, it does relate to the question of whether Bible prophecies taken in toto are correct significantly more often that chance.
The core fallacy here is the idea that a probability can be assigned to a prediction simply on the basis of time since the prediction was made. Trivial illustration:
Suppose I predicted 60 days ago that millions of people would die in disasters related to the mock-millenium. Well – I predicted it 60 days ago, so the odds that it would come true today are 1 in 60, right? EEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNNN!
Sorry – have a lovely parting gift.
Since the assigning the probability for each individual prophecy represents the very first step of V_R’s proposition, all else is meaningless.
Your instructor did you a grave disservice. Might I suggest a course in probability theory instead? It has been my experience that undergraduate stats classes often rely on training non-mathematicians in th erote application of a few probability distributions. As has been demonstrated, this rarely prepares them to apply statistical reasoning to real world situations.
The best lack all conviction
The worst are full of passionate intensity.
*
Oh, and by the way, you said that my “master” has called me home. No He didn’t, or else I wouldn’t still be here posting messages. My “master” is Jesus Christ, and when He calls me home, THAT’S when I’ll go!
God bless!
Victoria Rose
I’m curious, when has a generation ever been 40 years? I think that the span used to quantify a generation is about 25 years. And if you averaged out the time between generations over the last 2000 years the number is probably closer to 20 years than 40 years.
So, Vic, is it possible? You haven’t answered me. I’ll even post the question again, just because I’m a nice guy:
[quote]
[qoute]Time is relative when it comes to God.
Either time is relative to the Big Man 
or it isn’t, there are no two ways about it. Which is it?
“I hear the mermaids singing, each to each. I do not think that they will sing to me.”
-T.S. Eliot
Spiritus: It does matter how many predictions overall there are, if we are allowed to pick and choose which ones were correct after the fact.
For Rose’s claim to be correct, it would be necessary for a prediction to be like this: “There is an event that is guaranteed to happen within the next 50 generations. I predict it will happen in generation X”. Obviously, none of these predictions fit that criterion.
I notice how the original poster very quickly backtracked by claiming that A) she was just quoting someone else (and therefore would not debate it with us, I presume), and B) withdrew into typical generic ‘Jesus is my Saviour and that’s all I know’ - type rhetoric.
Given that, I think we can safely say that her attempt to ‘prove’ the bible by invoking statistics or any kind of logic was a complete, dismal failure.
Victoria_Rose:
So you just posted a list without examining Jeffery’s claims? First you say they are “all true” when they are clearly not and you cannot support how any of them are true. Then you try to duck responsibility for them. (If you actually believe the silliness that Jeffery wrote, you should be able to point out how any of those “prophecies” are true, rather than simply claiming that you didn’t say it. If you cannot provide you own support, why do you insist that they are true?)
Tom~
Victoria Rose: You lost me with all those numbers back there. Math is hard. You must be really smart to be able to do those calculations and stuff.
Do you have a Ph.D. in math?
tracer:
It is the formal name for an irrelevant conclusion error, one of three falacies characterized as “missing the point”. The other two are petitio principii (begging the question) and the famous strawman.
“It is lucky for rulers that men do not think.” — Adolf Hitler
Victoria, you would have to actually calculate the probability that each of these prophecies would happen in a specific generation. But the fact that the overwhelming majority of the prophecies are wrong…
You know, doing what is right is easy. The problem is knowing what is right.
–Lyndon B. Johnson
Vic - I obviously can’t prove here that I’ve taught stats classes, or that I’ve taught a logic class (also true), or that I’ve got a Ph.D. in math (ditto), or that my current job title is ‘mathematical statistician’ (ditto), although the last substantially overstates the statistical component of my work.
But if you want to get into a discussion of anything in graph theory or combinatorics, where I did my doctoral work, I’m your guy.
Dhanson:
I have already noted that the number of prophecies does factor into any computation of the overall prophesorial (sorry, couldn’t resist) accuracy of teh Bible. It does not, however, factor into the probability that this specific string of predictions will/has come true.
Your question is probably a more valid test for the reliability of scriptural augury, but it is not the problem that V_R proposed.
Victoria_Rose:
It does little credit to your argument to ask whether RTFirefly really did teach statistics. His occupational history is entirely irrelevant. The grade you got in statistics is aso irrelevant to this discussion, though I suspect not to a discussion about the degrading standards of a University education. he germane points are:
The statistical argument you made was grossly incorrect.
Several people here have pointed out areas in which it was lacking.
You apparently lack any means to refute these criticisms.
You apparently lack the humility and/or integrity to admit that you were wrong.
BTW
I did not realize that membership in the Ivy League was now being determined by number of professors. Does Harvard know?
The best lack all conviction
The worst are full of passionate intensity.
*
Using your very own logic, Victoria_Rose, how do we REALLY know that actually you TOOK a stats class? Or got an A in it, for that matter?