Elections, and special elections, are all about turnout. I can easily believe Ossoff makes, say, 40% in the special election (with a dozen republican candidates, the next best might be 15%).
But then in the runoff, Ossoff’s support isn’t going to go up any, and he’d lose 60-40.
If he can’t win outright on the first ballot, he can’t win on the second ballot once all the republicans are lined up behind their one candidate instead of fractured among a dozen.
Well, it can go up some, since there are other Dems in the race besides Ossoff, but probably not very much.
Sure, but unless the race is
Ossoff: 49%
Other Dems: 2%
Republican Field: 48%
Independents: 1%
Ossoff needs to win on the first ballot.
It’s not quite as simple as the aggregate Dem vote vs the aggregate Republican vote. FiveThirtyEight did an article in the last couple of days (can’t link right now) looking at other “jungle primary” elections in the past, and the 2nd round winner very often got a greater proportion of the vote than their aggregate party vote from the 1st round.
It’s not hard to imagine a way – presumably, there are some anti-Trump Republicans in the race and some pro-Trump Republicans, considering how many Republicans are running. If Ossoff gets to 47%, and the #2 vote getter is a strongly pro-Trump Republican (say, at 20%), then it’s very possible that at least 3% of those anti-Trump Republican voters might consider voting for Ossoff, or staying home.
Certainly not guaranteed, but not terribly unusual, either, at least according to that article.
Uh, no. You have Ossoff with 51% of the vote on the second round.
Regards,
Shodan
Bolding mine.
Yeah, saw that too late to edit.
It’s all good, I’ve done it myself.
Back to the election itself, I"m surprised by all the volunteers that were out waving signs both in the morning and at lunch, at nearly every polling place. I wonder if they’ll still be there on the drive home. I haven’t seen this much interest in an election around here since 2008.
I guess if you consider polling at 43% “close”. The Democrat in KS-4 got 45% last week. My guess is that Ossof won’t even match that.
That was a plus 30 district for Trump, IIRC – this one is something like plus 6. We’ll see, but I think Ossoff has a decent chance to win (either in round 1 or 2).
Hmm. These local House elections, they don’t involve an Electoral College, or some such, right? They just count up the votes, and the mostest wins?
For this election, state law says that whoever gets more than 50% of the vote wins, NOT whoever gets the most votes.
If nobody gets 50% in this round (likely with 17 candidates), the top two vote getters head to a runoff, where there will be a winner except in the unlikely event that there’s a tie.
No electoral college, but in this special election in Georgia you actually have to get a majority, not just a plurality, so if, for example, Ossof gets “the mostest” votes, but less than 50%, he doesn’t win. He would advance to a runoff election where just the top two vote-getters compete (on June 20th), at least that’s how I understand the rules.
BTW 538 has a good write-up on this race. He calls GA-6 “about 9.5 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole.”
I think most of the polls are closing in about half an hour (7pm ET). I believe I read that a couple of polling locations will be open a little later due problems getting started on time.
Here’s a link to live election results courtesy of the New York Times. Nothing yet but the first results are expected around 7:30 ET.
To follow up on my last post…
All the sites that had people waving signs still had people there on the way home. Most of them looked really tired and a lot of them were sitting instead of waving like maniacs. Can’t say I blame them, it was a summer day full of pollen here in the Peach state.
Still, this is the most politically active I’ve seen Georgia in a long time.
Well damn, with less than 1% reporting that is an impressive graphic. Here’s to hoping it continues that way. (63% Ossoff)
For what it’s worth, based on the early voting, the betting markets just jumped from 50% to 67% for the Democrat.