I was just going to note this, though Ossoff was as low as at 41 or 42 earlier today. So the bettors think the early numbers are good for him.
I’m happy with that graph as is, but the early voting was always going to go well for Ossoff.
3% of the vote in, Ossoff is at 61.5%. I’m hoping turnout on election day goes high, as that’s usually good for Dems even in a district like the Sixth.
538 earlier wrote:
Sounds like he started off well. With 4% reporting now, NYT still shows him at 60.6%
“Well, the Election Day vote better be great for the GOP. Because the early vote is simply much better than expected for Ossoff”
Funniest response to that tweet:
“Stop it, I remember what you did to our frail little hopes in November”
Speaking of November… Here’s how the race for this seat played out then.
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Price (Incumbent) 201,088 61.68
Democratic Rodney Stooksbury 124,917 38.32
I boldly predict that this one will be closer.
Betting markets back down to about 50 for Ossoff. Maybe some early excitement, but still too soon to tell.
with 41 of 210 districts (20%), Ossoff is sitting at 56.7%. I’m not surprised about the betting markets: I assumed the initial jump was people not understanding how early voting usually goes.
At a quick glance it looks like there are 4 other Dems on the ballot totaling less than 1% of the vote at this point.
Yeah, just seems to be mirroring the vote, and not taking into account that the Ossoff tallies likely to fade over time.
Andre Pollard of the Tech Party is in last place with 27 votes. I think I could get more than 27 votes with friends and family.
Another big chunk of vote came in from Cobb County and knocked Ossoff down to 50.8%. The “good” news is now Cobb is 73% in and that is Ossoff’s worst county.
Ha, he squeaks back up to 51.0% at 97 of 210 precincts!
Yea, it looks like he’s not going to keep the 50+% he needed. Shame.
Nate Cohn says it’s headed for 48 - 48.5%.
Here’s my general thread nitpick that everyone is free to ignore. The phrase “the betting markets” was used a few times in this thread, but it was always in reference to a single betting market, PredictIt.
Down to 50.1% with more Cobb vote in.
Cobb, Ossoff’s worst county, is 88% in.
DeKalb, Ossoff’s best county is 95% in.
Fulton, which could end up on either side of 50%, is 16% in.
Get it together Fulton.
Ossoff is going to lose narrowly.
Umm…
The worst case scenario is that he wins handily and qualifies for the runoff.
And that is generally a bad scenario for Ossoff. He’s winning here because he’s basically the only Democrat people are voting for (the other four are collectively at less than 1%). If it’s just him and a Republican (which looks like it will be Karen Handel at this point), the Republican vote will no longer be split, and his sub 50% total here is unlikely to rise in the runoff.
Unless Trump gets more unpopular and causes a handful of additional Republican votes to flip, and / or Democratic voters are just plain more energized and more likely to turn out for the runoff than Republicans, neither of which is an implausible scenario.
Straight up 50% plus one vote is looking less and less likely. 49% plus 1% for other Dems is still very much on the table. And even 48% total for Dems means the runoff could go either way.