I know it sounds crazy. I know the usual assumption is that Georgia will be squarely in Bush’s camp, but hear me out:
Denise Majette appears poised to win the Democratic nomination for Senate in today’s runoff election. My sense is that having her on the Democratic ticket in the fall could spur a huge turnout here among black voters, eager to take advantage of a rare opportunity to put a black Georgian in the Senate.
Those voters will likely be an almost solid block for John Kerry in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, a lot of Republican voters here, while they support Bush, are not especially enthusiastic about him. They might just stay home. Or at least enough of them might to make a difference.
Republicans are concerned about it, I think. Probably part of the reason they put an anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendment on the ballot, as a way to get churchgoers (and presumed Bush voters) out to the polls. Maybe that will be enough to get Republicans into the voting booths, maybe not.
Could Georgia produce a surprisingly close Presidential race? And if so, will Kerry’s team recognize the possibility in time to put some people on the ground here? (You may recall that Al Gore, thinking Florida was a lost cause, didn’t bother campaigning there until very late, when it became apparent the state could swing to him.)
Wonderful if true. But I think if Kerry takes Georgia, he doesn’t need it. I think the race boils down to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida. Take 2 of these, win the White House. If any other southern states are in play, then Bush is history.
I’d love to see it as much as the OP, but it just doesn’t seem plausible to me.
The black population of Georgia is only around 12%, right? So even if they turn out in substantially larger numbers than they ever have before, I don’t see how it can make much difference.
Denise Majette has a pretty tough fight just to win her runoff race against Cliff Oxford. Assuming she does that, I don’t think she is the type of politician that so energizes a race that it spills over into others. For the most part, she is known around here as the person that gave us a 2 year reprieve from the oddball ravings of Cynthia McKinney.
Of course speaking as white, non_Democrat I may not be receiving the “Get excited, it’s Denise!” mailings.
I think Atlanta might be a Democratic pivot point, but everywhere outside the perimeter will just spin around it, otherwise intact and for the most part Republican.
If that 28.7% of the population is energized, it could make a huge difference in a low-turnout state like Georgia.
If Denise Majette wins the runoff today, will her candidacy energize black voters? Mullinator is correct to say (or imply) that she is not exactly an electrifying politician, but I don’t think that makes much difference. My sense is that black voters will be so excited about the prosepect of sending a black Democratic Georgian to the Senate that they will turn out in numbers.
It may not be enough to turn the state. Hell, it probably won’t be enough to turn the state. But I’ll wager that the Presidential race in Georgia will be a lot closer than people expect and it will be because Majette is on the ballot.
I’m doubtful about http://www.electoral-vote.com/. The concept is good (and I approve) but they seem to be a ‘slam Bush’ group when you click the ‘Bush’s Record’ link. And that brings me to doubting their objectivity and whether they’re looking at things through rose-colored glasses.
This is the first I’ve heard that Georgia may be in doubt. Anyone have any recent polling of likely voters in that state?
I don’t remember it that way. What I seem to recall was the Vice President taking a very careful position on Elian Gonzalez because of Florida’s electoral importance. Is there any evidence the Gore campaign discounted Florida?
They don’t just make up their numbers, **Jonathan ** - although the Zogby and Rasmussen polls that constitute so much of their data base have their methodological weaknesses.
Oh I don’t doubt that a strong majority of Georgians, when polled, favor Bush.
The question is which voters will turn up at the voting booths. I think a large bloc of energized voters (black Democrats) may cause the race to be closer than polls now indicate. I don’t know if I would be so bold as to label Georgia “in doubt” but I do think it will be closer than is presently anticipated.
(I may be mis-remembering the situation in Florida 2sense. I was thinking that Gore made a tardy play for Florida, but it may have been a different state I’m remembering.)
I know this is the popular perception outside the South, but it’s just not so. In fact, I think a lot of white voters in the South (and maybe particularly in the rural South) are so eager to prove they’re NOT racist that they tend to flock to qualified, respectable black candidates. I’d call it liberal guilt, but it’s not just liberals who do this.
Case in point: Justice Leah Sears of the Georgia Supreme Court (black, female and liberal) was challenged this year (in a statewide race) by a conservative judge. The challenger had solid credentials. He had Republican endorsements. But he played the race card in a not-too-subtle way by sending out mailings showing a picture of his opponent (just so the voters would know she was black). Result: Sears won in a landslide.
No doubt. And I have no doubt Isakson will win. But that’s beside the point.
The point is that if Majette is the Democratic nominee, she will draw a lot of black voters to the polls who might not otherwise vote. I don’t think Majette will win, but her presence on the ballot will provide a boost to the Kerry campaign. Those Majette voters will not be voting for Bush at the top of the ticket.
I suspect that polling methodologies may not take this effect into account, which is why I think the race in Georgia will be closer than opinion polls are currently showing.
I’ve just come home after voting. For Oxford. I felt a need to punish Majette for her egregiously stupid move of mounting her quixotic Senate campaign, which had no hope of succeeding, and whose only practical effect was to return McKinney to Washington.
And I presume practically all of those blacks who vote, vote Democrat. What about the white population of Georgia? How many of them are Republicans and how many Democrats?