Indiana has gone red again, mainly due to relentless ads showing how Evan Bayh isn’t really an Indianan anymore. Which is true, his only connection to Indiana is a small apartment he’s probably never seen.
It’s actually starting to look really hopeful for the GOP. The Democrats got some good candidates name wise but mostly crap quality wise, resorting either to supposedly popular retreads or activsts who are too liberal for their states.
The GOP is looking at 52-48 and might even get 53-47 if Johnson overtakes Feingold. Tammy Duckworth in Illinois is the only sure pickup.
That being said, tons of really close races, so this could go anywhere from 55-45 GOP to 53-47 Dems.
Okay, I gotta ask, how is Strickland polling at sub-30%? I realize Portman’s done well and Strickland poorly, but he’s a relatively popular ex-governor. Portman up 10 I can see, but 30? I’ve never seen a candidate that well known repudiated that strongly unless there was some kind of scandal.
For a truly honest U.S. Senate campaign ad, click on the first (Gil Fulbright) video: Honest Political Ad | This might be the only truly honest political ad you see this election cycle 😂 | By RepresentUsFacebook
See here: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805396
At this time, Trump, has been declining a bit in 538’s odds, but Republican control of the Senate is now up to 53.8%. In line with the above, I suspect that this is primarily due to the lagging effect of Senate polls.
[Also worth noting that a portion of the Republican’s Senate odds is based on the likelihood of the Republicans ending up with 50 seats and Trump winning. So if you buy Clinton winning, then Republican odds of Senate control are less than 50% at current calculations.]
Over the past week, Silver has changed IN, MO, and NH from Blue to Pink.
With all 3, that would put Republicans at 51 without the Veep.
NH changed from Blue to Pink this morning then back to pale Blue this afternoon.
Those two women have got to be looking like Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed in the final round at this point. No matter what happens, they BOTH deserve a vacation come Wednesday.
In general, ISTM that the Republicans are ahead in enough campaigns to hold the Senate. But several of those are razor thin margins. The likelihood that the Republicans win all the seats in which they’re ahead by a point or so in the aggregated polls is low. By contrast, the Democrats tend to have the bigger leads.
I’ll throw this unlikely to occur scenario out here.
We may not know which party wins the the Louisiana senate seat until December 10th. There’s seven people on the ballot including multiple Republicans and Democrats. If no one gets 50% of the vote (likely) the top two vote getters go to a run off on December 10th. This could be a Democrat and a Republican (likely). The Dem could win the run off (unlikely).
Louisiana recently elected a Dem governor and Trump won’t be on the ticket on the 10th so I’m not ruling this completely out.
Also, imagine the amount of money that will flow into Louisiana in that month if Clinton wins and the senate is 49-50 D-R between Nov 8 and Dec 10.
If that happens, I know where Air Force One will be flying.
How early in the day is it reasonable to expect the Senate race in New Hampshire to be called?
Called by who? Various internet pundits will be calling it by 9am Eastern.
Called by two or more publications/networks that care enough about their reputation that they would avoid calling it while it’s far from certain whether or not their call will hold up.
ETA: Since the original question was on a previous page (depending on your settings), I’ll clarify: the question was, How early in the day is it reasonable to expect the Senate race in New Hampshire to be called?
nm. Started to say something inaccurate.
Depends how close the vote is. The Minnesota race with Al Franken wasn’t called for weeks because of recounts, etc.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see the NH race called within an hour of polls closing (which is 7pm).
I think we’ll take back the Senate, but it will be very close.
Well general opinion seems to be that Evan Bayh is losing Indiana but I didn’t call it for him anyway so it won’t impede the chances for a tied Senate.
NPR said several hours ago that Bayh seemed likely to lose, FWIW.
Yes, Bayh lost.
Democratic pickups in New Hampshire and Illinois, but Republicans still control the U.S. Senate and now have a six-vote majority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016
4, really, since the 2 independents are Democrats for practical purposes.
One thing to keep an eye on is that some of the people being floated as possible Trump cabinet members are current US Senators. I’ve not checked, but assume they wouldn’t appoint someone who wouldn’t be replaced by another Republican. Still, that opens these seats for challenges in the next election.