538 and the Senate

Politics & Elections
161

2018 could be ugly for Dems, even though it’ll be an offyear election, which often favors the party not holding the White House: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

The Dems will have 23 seats (and 2 Dem-aligned Independents) up for grabs that year; GOP will be defending just 8.

162

The map is so ugly it might be impossible to gain seats, but if Trump is unpopular it might prevent significant GOP gains. And the House is still the House, it can be won if Trump is unpopular enough.