With those numbers, then so far 2/3 of the total 2016 turnout has been recorded via early vote. The “outstanding ballots” are like another 27%, and not all of them will take advantage and may just choose to take them to in-person or dropbox on the day itself.
Impressive.
I’m going to guess that for many, if not most, places, the worst lines were on the first day of early voting. Lots of people are eager to vote against you know who. Anyway, the site has been updated again, about an hour after the last time. The total only went up by 30-some thousand.
Last updated: 10/30/2020 03:48 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 85,755,756 • In-Person Votes: 30,518,913 • Mail Ballots Returned: 55,236,843 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 35,578,838
You’re talking about lines during in-person early voting, which, in the states that offered this, was spread out over weeks.
I’m talking about lines on November 3rd (Election Day). It remains to be seen how bad these lines will be.
The GOP is scared in Texas. They are trying to void 100,000 drive-thru votes in Harris County.
Heck, I’d run a mile through sand to accomplish that.
My little polling place is usually sparsely populated. I’m voting at about 6am Nov. 3rd and would be happy to see, and be happy to wait in a socially distanced line out the door.
This article has me a little queasy:
Key quote:
Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.
That article makes me wonder if Biden will do well in the sun belt (eg Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas) while doing worse than expected in Pennsylvania and Florida. That would still be a Biden win.
Florida is a slightly right-leaning swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden lost it. I want him to win it because they count their votes quickly and I don’t want Biden to have to rely on a blue shift (that Trump is busily discrediting ahead of time).
I haven’t seen a Randy Rainbow link around this place for a while. Anyway, if you’re thinking about being one those early voters, but dadgummit, you’re undecided about how you’ll vote, Mr. Rainbow is here to let you know how to tell the right from the wrong candidate.
Agreed. Even with the accurate numbers, this is quite stunning, isn’t it?
Can you imagine if the Democrats take Texas, and as I have read, the demographics of that state are changing, as more young, more progressive people move there? If Texas goes blue, this could be the death knell for the Republican party as we know it today. At least as far as presidential politics.
i wouldn’t be so confident.
If BIden wins his first term and wins Texas, there’s no guarantee that he or Harris would win Texas in 2024. Obama won North Carolina in 2008 but lost it in 2012.
Even if the Republicans win Texas, though, it is now a purple state. It may be a decade from becoming a light blue state like Virginia, which isn’t even being considered a swing state this election.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Last updated: 10/30/2020 08:00 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 86,476,900 • In-Person Votes: 30,647,176 • Mail Ballots Returned: 55,829,724 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 35,036,191
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Last updated: 10/30/2020 09:49 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 86,833,888 • In-Person Votes: 30,655,487 • Mail Ballots Returned: 56,178,401 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 34,689,283
Do we know that more voters is better for Biden? Or at least confident? In the last six months Republicans registered more voters than Democrats, iirc.
Historically, better turnout is better for Democrats.
The Economist came out with a study which showed, counterintuitively, that increased voter registration by one party has no correlation with the electoral result.
Uh oh…a train is coming.
I’m just glad people are voting!
Whether that gets positive results remains to be seen.
Last updated: 10/30/2020 11:26 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 87,202,186 • In-Person Votes: 30,786,147 • Mail Ballots Returned: 56,416,039 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 34,568,752
I note that the number of Mail Ballots Returned is going up faster than the number of Mail Ballots Outstanding is going down. This is probably because some states do not report how many were sent out, but do report how many have returned. Texas is one of these states, likely there are others.