Last update from last night:
Last updated: 10/31/2020 12:23 AM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 87,798,086 • In-Person Votes: 30,786,147 • Mail Ballots Returned: 57,011,939 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 34,002,340
It would seem to be the case, but yeah, we can’t know yet. I mean, Trump just barely beat Hillary Clinton, who was widely despised. Biden is not considered so; and if the amazing turnout so far is the result of even greater numbers of people rushing out to show how they support Trump, then this country is far sicker than I thought. In 2016 there weren’t groups like “Republicans Against Trump” and the like. I see this election as a tougher one for Trump to “win”.
I can’t believe, until I have to, that turnout like this is any good for Republicans.
I think many didn’t turn out in 2016 wrongly thinking that no one would vote for Trump. They where wrong. I think the early turn out is people voting for Biden.
Trump has his supporters for sure, but no more than he had in 2016. Hillary never had great support, but the never Trumpers are out in force. We need to keep this up and have an overwhelming defeat of Trump. Something that even his SCOTUS can’t try to overturn. Or the country is screwed.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Last updated: 10/31/2020 11:27 AM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 90,055,033 • In-Person Votes: 32,698,826 • Mail Ballots Returned: 57,356,207 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,674,445
Wow 90m!
Trump has spent his entire term doing things to fire up his base and piss off his opponents. The problem is, the only way he can win with just his base is if his opponents aren’t strongly motivated, and he’s been doing his best to goad them into voting. It’s impossible to believe that the surge in voting is driven more by Trump voters who support him more strongly now than Democrats (and independents) who are outraged.
I’ve been saying this for the past there years and it indeed looks like it’s turning out like it looked like it would turn out. To imagine that there are a lot more people who just weren’t motivated to go out and vote for Trump last time but have warmed up to him in the past 4 years than there are who have been sufficiently pissed of that they will come out to vote against him is ludicrous.
Of course it remains to be seen if it will survive any tricks.
I’m sure of it. I almost did.
I was scheduled to be out of the country on Election Day. I lived in NY , and absentee voting was a real pain in the ass back then - mostly because you had to print out the request form and return it via US mail. And you needed an excuse.
I ended up going through the entire exercise, in large part because I knew it would be public record. But it seemed pointless at the time, NY is a dark blue state and the race seemed like a sure thing.
If I had been in town I might have ended up skipping it as well. Sometimes Election Day just ends up being one of those days … you plan to go in the morning then you get a frantic call from a client, you get stuck there for forever and the client is not respectful when you try to cut it short then you have an evening appointment that day…I so much prefer having the two week window.
I know, right ? I’m gun shy a.f. and I don’t want to jinx it, but I giggle inside whenever I hear about the “shy Trump voter” , because none of them seem particularly shy to me. I guess if you believe that “the left” is composed of nasty angry people that are prone to violence and are gratuitously mean to kind and loving conservatives, you might buy into it. But I don’t, I think “shy Trump voter” is oxymoronic, like “shy drama queen” or “shy attention whore”.
I actually know a few “shy Biden voters”, moderate Republicans that live and/or work in deep red areas.
But that “shyness” only comes into play when they are around people that are strongly for Trump -(otherwise I wouldn’t know they were for Biden😁). I don’t think the “shyness” on either side applies to an anonymous phone poll.
Anything can happen. 10 months ago, I thought we were doomed. But the Democratic Party managed to exceed my admittedly low expectations and mount a campaign that was actually a little better than just OK. The Republican campaign has been laughably ineffective. They built an impressively massive and formidable money machine, they skimmed of so much money they forgot to leave any for actual campaigning. The campaigning they did do was geared towards getting donations from their base, not bringing in undecided voters.
I might be wrong, the Democrats have an awesome talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. More importantly, Trump came to power as part of worldwide post-depression trend towards conservatism and nationalism.
It’s the last that concerns me and always has. Trump is a clown, a buffoon and a con man. He’s utterly amoral but he’s not particularly good at being corrupt, because corrupt politicians are expected to deliver. As exasperating as the past four years have been, I’m still eternally grateful we didn’t get President Cruz.
My greatest political concern is that religious dominionism and nationalism will continue to encroach upon and eventually subsume our liberal democracy. If we defeat Trump, that will be a huge setback for the forces advancing those goals. If we don’t, that means those forces - which are a worldwide phenomenon - are stronger than I thought and they’ll continue to gain strength.
ETA- I had an inactive Predictit account with something like 8 bucks in it, so I just put it all on Biden by more than 10 points. Tomorrow the roller coaster will be heading in a different direction but I feel good today.
The case will go in front of Judge Andrew Hanen on Monday. I predict that he will rule for the votes to be thrown out and that SCOTUS will agree with him.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Last updated: 10/31/2020 06:53 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 90,604,711 • In-Person Votes: 33,002,130 • Mail Ballots Returned: 57,602,581 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,426,397
Last updated: 10/31/2020 09:55 PM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 91,107,484 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 57,966,269 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,176,723
Last one from last night. They’re all mail ballots returned on this one.
Last updated: 11/01/2020 01:14 AM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 92,038,417 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 58,897,202 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 32,303,784
Last updated: 11/01/2020 10:32 AM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 93,322,526 • In-Person Votes: 34,004,455 • Mail Ballots Returned: 59,318,071 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 31,897,283
The Republicans in Texas are not even trying “tricks”. They are blatantly asking to throw out 100,000 votes from an urban area, most of which will be for Biden.
They are blatantly trying to destroy votes for their opponent. No tricks. Just theft.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Last updated: 11/01/2020 11:28 AM Eastern Time
Total Early Votes: 93,131,017 • In-Person Votes: 34,004,455 • Mail Ballots Returned: 59,126,562 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 32,084,041
Hmmm. Looks like a corrective change from the last update. Number of Mail Ballots Returned decreased.
I’m expecting to see a lot of people - mostly Republicans- attempt to vote twice by sending in a mail-in ballot, then showing up at their polling place. I wonder if we are seeing totals reduced because people attempted to vote twice. I hope they are all prosecuted.
Then don’t seem to get how voting works. When your vote is received ( whether by mail or in person), it’s linked to you. You can’t get your vote counted twice any more than you can get 2 tax refunds by sending in your return twice.
But I expect some Republicans to try and vote in person even though they’ve sent in a mail ballot - because Trump told them to do that to “test” the system. I hope it doesn’t cause to much havoc at the polling places, but if it does I really hope they succeed in keeping fellow Republicans from voting.
I think they know exactly how it works and by voting twice they’re hoping it gets caught, the media reports on it and it’ll further undermine the mail in voting system. If it doesn’t get caught, welp, that’s two votes for their guy.
What so many people fail to understand is that every time the media reports on people voting multiple times, they only reason they can report on it is because it was caught. The bigger problem would be if all the duplicate votes actually got counted.
I bet we could stop a lot of people from (purposely) doing this if instead of simply reporting that they happened, tallying up all those votes and showing who they’re for. If it shows that the overwhelming majority of duplicate votes are for a certain candidate those people might stop doing it since it’s making their side look bad.
I’d further suggest that attempting to vote multiple times should void all your votes and you shouldn’t be allowed to cast a vote in the current election, but I don’t want to punish people that actually made a mistake.
I think they are aimed for the narrative that goes “Thousands of ballots were rejected and they are all Republican”, burying the part about the ballots being rejected because they were duplicates.
AKA: See, we TOLD you there was voter fraud! And we’ll commit voter fraud just to prove it!
As any unclean cop will tell you, it’s soooo much easier to find evidence that you planted than the other kind.