Sorry to create yet another 9/11 anniversary thread, but I didn’t see anything specifically about this topic. I’m wondering how concerned I should be about going out on Sunday the 11th. I live in the DC area. I’m already planning not to use public transit. Is this enough to keep me safe? Is DC really prepared for another attack? I’m not sure we are, and I’m scared.
It seems to me that there’s a high risk for an anniversary attack, especially since al-Qaeda is probably feeling inflamed after bin Laden’s death. While some have suggested that his death has fractured the organization, I’d find it much more likely that because he’d been in hiding for years and everyone knew he was under the gun, they’d shifted power to other individuals.
On the other hand, it would be very predictable for another attack to fall on the exact anniversary. So should I be more worried about going out tomorrow (Saturday) or perhaps Monday? Should I tell my friends and loved ones not to use public transit on Monday? I know it’s stupid, but if I didn’t and something happened to someone close to me I’d blame myself forever.
Take a deep breath and turn off the TV.
Consider the odds.
The population of the US is about 300,000,000 assuming a new attack were to kill 1,000 people (a highly unlikely number I think you will agree) that would give you a .00033% chance of being killed.
but I live in DC you say.
Right.
According to Wiki the population of the greater DC area is 8,924,087 assuming an attack that kills 1,000 that gives you a .0112% chance of being a victim.
You also have to consider that any attack is just as likely to occur in New York, or Chicago or even LA you actual risk is way, way lower than these numbers.
Now if you add into the fact that terrorists go for flashy targets (Pentagon, WTC, White House) the chance of you being involved in an attack while going about your business on a Sunday is damn near nil.
go about your business.
Enjoy the day.
I doubt al-Qaida’s ability to put together an attack that would leave anyone with the impression that they were still to be feared. Bin Laden’s dead, and while Zawahiri is still at large, the organization under him has been decimated, thanks to our President’s focus on al-Qaida.
I’m sure they could try to set off a car bomb somewhere, and it might actually succeed in killing and wounding dozens of people. I don’t think they will, because while it would kill some Americans, it would also demonstrate to what extent they’d lost the ability to do anything on the scale of the 2004 Madrid train bombings or the 1998 embassy bombings, let alone anything like the 9/11/01 attacks. It wouldn’t exactly be a recruiting aid for them, even among the world’s most anti-Western Muslims.
Here’s an article on Slate.com that says it would take 1,667 Times Square car-bomb attacks to justify the current spending by DHS. While that doesn’t exactly answer your question, it does give you some idea of how the fear of attacks seems wildly over-blown.
Personally, I’d go about my business with no worries, but keeping my eyes open for anything that might seem odd.
Well, I’d ask the most obvious question - if someone wants to hurt you real bad do you really think they will ceremonially choose the most obvious day? And, if someone wants to hurt you real bad do you really think you can prevent it?
We are a complacent people. Unless there is an occasional attack, we’ll forget they’re out there.
But yeah, the terrorist won nearly a decade ago. (‘9/11 changed everything!’) With all of the hysteria after the attacks, many people seemed to be convinced that ObL would personally go door to door in the U.S. sawing people’s heads off unless we attacked Saddam Hussein. :rolleyes:
A successful attack right about now would certainly terrorize Americans, and the terrorists know it. But if I were a terrorist I’d wait until the U.S. sighs collectively in relief that nothing happened on The Anniversary, and then launch an attack, Of course as Rick said, the odds of any individual person being harmed is vanishingly small. And if you’re sitting in a diner in Ottumwa, Iowa you’re even less likely to be a victim than someone visiting a high-profile target. (Which, to reiterate, will have beefed-up security.)
Everyone focuses on airliners. No one pays attention to trains, which can be be very effective targets. Hitting a major port would cause massive economic disruptions. Coordinated attacks on buildings and public places in several cities using bombs in rental trucks would cause widespread panic, since anyplace could be a target. (There’s been some buzz about the so-called ‘threat’ posed by private planes, but nobody says ‘Boo!’ about far-more-threatening rental trucks.)
There are a lot of targets out there, and with the sorta-kinda success of the first WTC bombing and the success of the OKC bombing and the greater motivation of terrorists to launch attacks, we are at greater risk of another attack. But even with the ‘Gotcha-ya!’ factor, I don’t think we’re at much greater risk in the next week than we were last week or last month.
Their ability to put together an attack like 9/11 hasn’t changed. The total cost to purchase 4 separate 400,000 lb weapons was $1 per weapon. The initial short term cost to the economy was over a half trillion dollars. We react to each new attack by throwing more money at the problem. And while the organization has been attacked in a publicly visual way thanks to our President’s ability to follow the last President’s playbook, nothing has changed in respect to the potential threat. If anything, the instability of the Mid East and the nuclear weapons program of Iran is changing the landscape in ways that are harder to predict. The real face of Egypt is starting to emerge and it’s decidedly not favorable to Israel or her supporters.
Killing people was never their goal. They could have multiplied the number many times over with equal success with the assets they used. It was an attack on the symbols of Western military power, economic success and political influence. The body count was just the icing on the cake.
I’ve never understood why the threat level would be higher on 9-11, and here’s my reasoning:
9-11 has already been most successfully ‘owned’ by the terrorists.
Pick another day to ruin, preferably on the other end of the year…maybe March?
Repeat until Profit! is achieved.
Besides, supposedly the protection level is higher on 9-11…what would be the point of doing it then? Not saying terrorists in general are the smartest crayons in the box, but come on. Pick Christmas, at least, or Veteran’s Day. Memorial Day! There we go, that’d be a good one.
But 9-11 again? It’s been done, quite thoroughly.
They announced additional security measures for our college football game today. All bags searched. State and local cops on hand. They want everyone in the stadium seated early before the game. They are pretty nervous this 9/11 weekend.
It does seem a bit ridiculous. Heightened security on Sept 11. Day passes without incident, security relaxed, terror attack put into place a few days later. Why would the terrorists care if they have to postpone their plans 48 hours?
I don’t see how anyone living in the US could not know about 9-11. Your warning them that it’s the anniversary probably won’t be news. With the increased security, it’s probably going to be SAFER this weekend than, oh, say next Wednesday.
p.s. If anything happens next Wednesday, I am not responsible!
