A notable counterexample to this is, well, Iran.
Oh, I agree that revolutions happen, and sometimes the good guys win, and hopefully that’s what we’re seeing now. It would be wonderful. I just don’t think they’re inevitable. A lot will depend on just how brutal the Iranian authorities are willing to get. The examples I gave were uprisings or attempts at revolution which went nowhere because the authorities were willing to crack down with considerable violence.
Where are you getting this info from?
I said they were big. If you want to call them enormous, that’s fine with me. I don’t see any evidence that the Guardian Council is going to give in or that enough of the populace is behind the protesters. The Supreme Leader will find some scapegoat to blame for a few election “irregularities”, and then get back to business as usual.
Yes, they have. Don’t expect regime change any sooner than 2013.
He says that, but it’s probably just a talking point. (The religious leaders would actually mean it.)
:mad: Godwin!
And many of the Iranian people remember the revolutionary frenzy of 1979 and its aftermath, and – even if they remember it with a certain fondness, the way some Boomers remember the '60s and some Chinese remember the Cultural Revolution – would probably rather endure any tyranny than go through anything like that ever again. If you’re doing well enough out of the present social order, you don’t want it overthrown.
:dubious: Ya think?! See post #23.
For what its’ worth, I’ve just scanned through Der Spiegel’s English-language website and found no mention of Hizbullah involvement.
ETA: But Andrew Sullivan says:
The linked-to webpage is in German, so is anyone able to translate for us?
Sam Stone You raise some good points, but I don’t think the situation is as pessimistic as you make it out to be. First you mention that a lot depends on how violent the regime is willing to get, I don’t think oppression is the killer card you make it out to be. For all of Iran’s faults the people there have been relatively free, compared to their neighbours of Iraq and Afghanistan, they easily travel between cities and abroad- so any violence may backfire spectacularly- The Iranians know how to pull off a revolution 
Also there is the influence of Ayatollah Montazeri to contend with, and I wonder how this report affects your judgement, a foreign journalist says that members of the special forces were de facto protecting some protesters from a larger pro-government crowd. I wish we had a clearer view of what was occurring within the governmental structures.
Also some members of the EP seem to believe the leaked results, although it is the Greens and MEP’s seem to be generally nutty so that doesn’t mean so much.
What does anyone think about the demands of the posters, may be far fetched but that might help them in the long run.
Thanks EddyTeddyFreddy I have some friends I can ask to translate that for me, might be a bit more useful then google translate.
Oh and mea culpa on mixing up the Girls school fire incident, should have known better.
Godwin is a reference to Hitler. Comparing the Basij to brown shirts is entirely appropriate. Those guys are 16 year old kids that beat women in the street for having their locks inappropriately covered by their Hijab.
Andrew Sullivan is all-Iran, all the time, right now, and he appears to have plenty of lines to lots of sources in the belly of the rampaging beast. Here’s his quote of a message from one of his readers, in today’s current entry:
Sullivan goes on to draw some interesting parallels between Obama and Mousavi’s campaigns and election, and says:
From what I’ve seen so far, Sullivan appears to have some of the best coverage of what’s happening now – certainly considerably more depth to it than what I’m seeing in the mainstream broadcast media.
Roughly, “According to reports by the broadcaster ‘Voice of America’, up to 5000 Lebanese fighters from the Hizbullah militia assisted the regieme in the showdown.”
That’s the only mention of Hizbullah in the article–again, second hand.
It’s been five days, depending on how you count Friday and today. Don’t you think it’s a tad early to conclude that Ahamdinejad will retain power?
A lot of you don’t like this guy because he’s kind of a hard right commentator, but he has a lot of insight and pretty good connections.
Iran protests: live - 17 June 2009 | News | theguardian.com The one at 6:15 PM.
How about the fact that an Ayatollah has called for an emergency meeting of the Guardians’ Council?
It is certainly not too early to hope he will. The alternatives . . . see post #23.
Would you please stop referring to your own posts as if they were the Word of God? It’s annoying, especially as they are merely your opinion, and not everyone who reads them neccessarily agrees with them.
Perhaps not, but no one in this thread has expressed disagreement yet (except WRT the relative popular support of seculars vs. religionists). Anyway, referring to one’s earlier post is merely a way to avoid repeating oneself.
I’ve read this quote several times, but thought I’d post it with a question:
(From CNN)
My question is…what do these guys think we could do? Or that the European’s, or anyone else could do? I can’t see how we could do anything at all, to be honest. 
-XT