It’s slightly less annoying than C&Ping, which you also do often. Also, I don’t think the only choices are civil war or everything being swept under the rug, despite WAR TO THE KNIFE!1!!!
They probably don’t want us to do anything. In Iranian politics, U.S. backing is pure poison.
And will in the future. Be annoyed. Be very annoyed.
Does any third choice present itself? Ahmadinejad obviously is not going to cave, and I can’t see how Mousavi or anyone else could carry off a bloodless coup. If the Army tries a coup, that pits the Army against the Revolutionary Guards, which can’t end without bloodshed.
Well…it’s always possible that Ahmadinejad may be ‘shot trying to escape’ or something. Or, the folks who are really in charge may decide that the best course is to cut him loose anyway, and put their other hand picked guy in place to appease the masses. I don’t think either is likely, but there are several other courses besides nothing will happen or revolution.
-XT
It’s hard to really know what goes on in Iranian corridors of power, but it’s entirely possible Ahmadinejad himself is “really in charge” now, as Ibrahim Yazdi asserts. Or, if anyone is pulling his strings, it’s probably not the Guardians but the Guards.
Sigh. I don’t want to be in a position of seeming to defend Ahmadinejad, but on this one point, please, for the hundreth time, can you, or anyone, cite that he ever said he wanted to wipe Israel from the map? Not something you were told, or a second- or third-hand account you read, but an actual cite.
I’ve read a statement of his, translated directly from Farsi that’s been misquoted often enough, and corrected just as often, but perhaps he actually did say he wanted to wipe Israel off the map, or a similar sentiment, at some other time. So if you could help a brutha out that would be hunky, not to mention dory.
Yazdi, given his sensitive position, is isolated in his own fashion and may not be the most reliable interlocutor. My impression is that he is taking a nugget of fact and inflating it into a mountain of conjecture.
While Ahmadinejad does seem to have expanded the Interior Ministry and his influence through it, the Revolutionary Guards, army and police report directly to Khamene’i - all their leaders were appointed by him. Beyond that Khamene’i also appoints the head of the television and radio networks. The idea that he is an isolated puppet, deprived of any meaningful information, seems pretty at odds with his long history of astute political maneouvering and networking, even if you were to exclude his enormous constituitional power, which far dwarfs Ahmadinejad’s.
It may well not be up to Ahmadinejad. He may have consolidated some more power into the presidency, but Khameini still calls the shots, for now.
Here I more or less agree with you. If the US is legitimately seen as giving help to the resistance, their chance of gaining more support crumbles.
Naturally, they want us to endorse Ahmadinejab for his heroic support of Israel and the United States’ goals.
I sincerely doubt it.
The idea that the Revolutionary Guards would side with Ahmadinejad, who never rose above the middle ranks, against Khamene’i, their commander and chief and the person their are indoctrinated to support above all else, in an serious conflict seems exceptionally unlikely. Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular, but Khamene’i appointed a new commander in 2007 who if anything is purportedly closer to folks like the current mayor of Teheran, who is not exactly in Ahmadinejad’s camp ( very conservative, but of a different faction ).
It would take some pretty fancy footwork on Ahamdinejad’s part to convince the IRG to take down the Leader and Guardian Council, the very organizations they were created to uphold.
Your other points of division are a little less contentious, but as I’ve argued before I think a bit exaggerated IMHO.
I’d amend that to Iraq is nowhere near as volatile as Iraq, but it definitely is a lot bigger ;).
This is perhaps faint praise, as Iraq was always a ramshackle edifice at best. But the only one of its neighbors Iran is less stable than, is Turkey. As a historical entity it has far deeper roots than most and that counts for more than some people might think.
An explosion is certainly possible ( witness 1979 ), but whereas I’ll be faintly surprised if Iraq still exists in its current configuration twenty years from now, I seriously doubt Iran will go the ways of the Balkans and cantonize.
This is completely wrong. The hardliner putsch was more than willing to use the military to maintain communist rule. They just botched the coup very badly.
The way I remember it, the main reason the coup failed was that the common soldiers, when it came down to it, were not willing to turn their guns on Soviet civilians in the streets, no matter what their officers ordered.
How many factions are there? Serious question.
Above my paygrade :). I’m just not well-informed enough to even pretend to offer a definitive list. For one thing they seem to morph and shift from one year to another and boundaries can get blurry. The ‘Reformists’ alone consist of myriad little seperate parties and organizations.
But there does seem to have been a split in recent years between more restrained ‘moderate conservatives/New Technocrats/pragmatic conservatives’ vs. ‘radicals/ultra-conservatives/neo-conservatives/fundamentalist conservatives/hardline conservatives’ in Ahmadinejad’s camp. So for example, I mentioned the current mayor of Tehran and former national police chief Mohammed Bagher Ghalibraf. He is considered a political opponent of Ahmadinejad, while still being a loyal follower of the revolution and close to Khamene’i, rather than part of the ‘reformist’ camp.
See for instance this article contrasting Ahmadinejad’ ‘Neo-Conservatives’ vs. ‘New Technocrats’ : http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav061008.shtml
Or this one, ‘Pragmatic Conservatives’ vs. ‘Fundamentalist Conservatives’: http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1212394739518&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs%2FMAELayout
Yes, and I presented it earlier. The Religious Council could “find” enough evidence of questionable counts that they authorize a run-off which Moussavi wins. Meanwhile he has privately negotiated with the council and things are run mostly how they want things to go. End result is some modest rearrangement of power structures within the council and some slight diminishment of the Council’s power overall but only to the point where they are more co-equal with the Presidency.
Tamerlane, and just how reformist is the reformist camp? I’ve gotten the sense that in actuality the reformists would be likely to produce policies that were more moderate conservative than anything else. Is that off base?
No Commies?! 
No, you’re pretty close. The reformists actually seem to be all over the map, depending on the faction. But remember Khatami is usually lumped into the ‘reformist’ camp ( albeit, perhaps the outer conservative wing ) and he was/is hardly a flaming liberal. The most out there are inevitably cut out of the political process and these days you have to toe the line pretty damn well to get the ‘reformist’ label and be allowed to run for office. Part of the steady de-liberalization of Iran that has been going on since 1979.
There are more radical voices out there, but so far they have been marginalized pretty sucessfully.
Actually that’s a very interesting digression. Iran has a long and interesting flirtation with communism, including the first SSR outside Russia ( short-lived ). The Left generally ( including many communists ) was a very important component of the 1979 Revolution and briefly shared power with the theocrats. Khomeini, always the populist, oddly embraced popular communist touchstones, like May Day celebrations ( you can find stamps celebrating it issued by the Islamic Republic ).
But no, they’ve long since been squeezed out ( the Hostage Crisis was the shot across the bow of that internal struggle ). There are ( so I’ve been told ) plenty of closet leftists still in Iran especially amongst the professional and middle classes, but they sure aren’t allowed within sniffing distance of the government. Far as I know the only active remnants are armed groups like the MEK et al.
The BBC reporter on the spot has said the word “revolution” is being bandied about by many in the large crowds.
Hmmm . . . Interesting . . . Never mind Commies, is there any significant number of democratic socialists?
Maybe Fedaian?