What will come first and why, a female president or an African American President.
I have been toiling over this for years with Mrs.Phlosphr. Her argument is that it stands to reason that with the current trend in governmental politics there is a higher likelihood of a female president in the coming decades elections than an African American President. This year in Gubernatorial races there is the highest number of female candidates than there ever has been. In Hawaii both candidates are female.
There is some rationale in this current trend, but how close is the American Government to actually having a female president?
How ready is the American Government to have a female president? What if she got pregnant during her term?
Personally, if Colin Powell ran for president I’d certainly vote for him, but how do others feel about this. I see nothing wrong with having the right man or woman for the job, regardless of race, gender or creed. Granted a muslim president I’ll most likely never see. But why did Powell not run? I seem to remember him saying he did not want the pressure or problems etc…etc… But He’s a General right? What would the difference be between him and say Eisenhower? Both Generals, both icons…???
Is the race issue in American culture melting in the great teeming pot, or is it just condensing into a solution?
A couple of side points. I don’t expect a Jewish President within my lifetime. We’re still waiting to even see a 2nd Roman Catholic.
Back to the OP: There could be a tie if Condi Rice was the one.
As to what will actually occur, I think it depends on personalities and on history. Powell had a shot at being President, but he didn’t want it. Hillary Clinton seems to want it, and she has a shot. I think she would have a good chance to win in 2008.
I think a female president will come long before an African-American one. The sole exception is if Colin Powell decided to run, in which case everybody would vote for him. My reasoning is that although women are now treated much more equally in politics, the same is not always true of African-Americans. Although gender would not necessarily be a big factor in setting policies, race almost certainly would be. African-Americans are percieved as having certain affiliations and certain opinions concerning policies such as affirmative action that would turn a potential black candidate off to viewers (whether these views were actually held or not). A vehement denial of these views would probably result in that candidate losing the black vote. In the end, a black candidate would probably have a much harder time holding onto a constituency base.
I think Powell turned down the nomination because it would have been too high pressure for his wife… or something like that. I heard she had some sort of mental problems (not necessarily as bad as it sounds; may be depression or something) and he felt it would not be best for her.
I’m not sure how close America is to a female president. Perhaps as close as 2004, depending on how things play out. I think that unlike the situation of an African-American candidate, it is not because of sexism.
Both at the same time. Condi Rice. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dubya picks her as VP candidate in 2004 and she then becomes a serious Presidential contender in 2008 and 2012. In fact I would go so far as to say that she is the only really serious possibility for President among both females and Blacks in the next ten years. Incidentally I started a thread on this some time back.
Colin Powell would easily win a general election but I doubt he could win the GOP primary plus I am not sure he wants the job.
Hillary Clinton is poison in the crucial Southern states. The Dems would have to be really stupid to nominate her and she still wouldn’t win.
I really can’t think of anyone else who has a shot.
I would love to see Condi become VP, and later run for pres in 2008. I believe that she will be the VP, if Cheney decides to not pursue another four years. If she does decide to run, I think she’d have a reasonable chance of winning.
I personally believe that the first black president will almost have to be a Republican. Black democratic politicians tend to follow the Official Black Party Line in this nation pretty closely, and this will turn off a large number conservative-leaning swing voters. Such issues as affirmative action, reparations, and such aren’t the sort of thing that really unifies people (especially given that the majority of Americans oppose those things), which is important to winning a presidential election. Conversely, a black Republican will have the Republican vote, and a large minority, if not a slim majority, of the black vote. Plus, I think swing voters would tend to support him, in a “rooting for the underdog” sort of way. The wild-card would be in the black power base. African American groups, such as the NAACP, almost universally loathe black republicans. But what if a black Republican was actually a strong candidate for president? Would they support him? I would think they’d almost have to, for fear of losing support.
As far as Hillary running for president, I seem to recall recent polls showing that most people want her to stay the hell out of the Oval Office.
Definitely a black man will be first, if we don’t look at specific people but rather just generalities about the voting public. I think that as racial stereotypes continue to break down, men will see their commonalities with other men of all races, but will continue to see their differences with all women. A white man, in day-to-day existence, shares many more common interests with a black man than with a white woman, because the genders often have divergent goals (for whatever reason, you can call it culturally imposed if it makes you feel better.)
Yeah, when it comes to the issues, people may be in total agreement. But think of how many conservatives are more in agreement with Walter Williams or Mary Matalin right now than they are with their moderate GOP president, but would either of those two have won against him? I speculate that alot of people vote based on who they “trust” more, and I think most men would trust a black man over a woman of any sort to lead the country, whether or not they acknowledge it.
Think about the common complaints men have of women in their daily encounters, that they don’t understand women, that women are unpredictable. I honestly think that would be in the back of many men’s minds when they went to the polls and saw that woman’s name on there.
I look at this race here in Missouri as an example. (Just FYI, I am voting for the woman, just to piss off Ashcroft and his Big Brother goons.) Jean Carnahan had to go out and do a photo-op skeet shooting to reinforce that she wasn’t a gun control freak. Her poll numbers went up dramatically right afterwards, especially with men, who perhaps trusted her more now that they knew she shared an interest with them that many women do not.
It all depends on who it is. Either will have to overcome the hesitation of people to vote for someone “different” for the first time, but the right person would do it. I don’t think that there would be any more hesitation in the general populus against one over the other.
BTW, Powell’s wife has treated depression. When asked if that was why he wasn’t running, he answered in such a way that did more good for demystifying and normalizing mental illness than a thousand Nightlines: “Well, uh, no. Everyone knows about it and her medicine works a lot better for her than my high blood pressure pills do.” I think that he is just someone who likes to avoid conflict unless he is assured of victory … such was how he acted in the Gulf War as well - don’t go in until you can go in with such overwhelming force that you are sure to win decisively and quickly.
december, I don’t know about a Jewish president. Leibowitz would have a shot if he didn’t come off so nebbishy. I think that the same applies to a Jewish canidate as to a black one - they’d do better if they were playing against type and running as moderate or conservative Republicans. The kicker there being able to get through the primaries. Next best as a conservative Democrat. It would help further if the MidEast wasn’t such a hot spot area.
I think either a black or a female president is equally likely in the near future. Don’t forget Britain had a female Prime Minister as early as 1979! Its simply a question of time. Regarding the OP’s mentioning of getting pregnant whilst in office - I would think most female candidates would already have grown up children so I wouldn’t see it being an issue.
Elected presidents come mostly from the Senate or a governor of a state. If you look at this likely ‘pool’ of future presidents, you see many more females that blacks.
Of course VPs often become president and that may be the most likely way the first female or black would rise to the position.
My guess is that we’ll see a conservative white woman become president before we see a black man or a liberal woman. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Elizabeth Dole were the first female president. She’s relatively moderate–more so than many Republicans–and fairly popular. As CyberPundit pointed out, there’s no way on earth Hillary Clinton would win Southern states. But Dole probably would, particularly if she wins the North Carolina Senate seat she’s now campaigning for and serves as the NC representative for a term or so.
By the time a woman paid her political dues and gained the experience and clout necessary to run for president, she would mostly likely be too old to have more children, so I don’t see pregnancy as a factor.