A Growing And Real Theory That Israel Will Soon Bomb Iran...

Great Debates
1

Hey,

There has been a documentary made by the BBC which is ample entitled “will Israel bomb Iran” which was made just after the unrest which took place in Lebanon and although that conflict was pretty intense which seems to have stopped now it is not the end of the story as Israel is certain Iran is supplying Hezbollah with their rockets to fire into Israel.

Fair enough, but there is a greater threat which Israel sees, which is that Iran is building and producing nuclear fuel which they say is for peaceful use, but most world leaders suspect that Iran is producing it for a atomic bomb, and when or if it attains this it will be untouchable in many respects as its common sense not to invade or attack a country with a nuclear bomb, just as its been shown with North Korea.

But the reason Israel has to worry about this emerging nuclear Iran is that its president has declared and stated in many public speech’s that Israel should be wiped off the pages of history and Ahmadinejad (Iran’s President), who has a history of similarly fiery rhetoric, said “Israel no longer had any reason to exist and would soon disappear.”

America doesnt want to see Iran acquire nuclear weapons but because of the politics and the failure in Iraq it is unlikely that America would be able to take any direct action due to politics, so as unbelievable as it might seem Israel might go it alone and take out key targets in Iran. This is not a far out conspiracy theory but top government officials in Israel are even making plans with how to deal with the crisis if the UN lets it go unchecked.

But all in probability Israel will not allow Iran to come close to making weapons grade fuel and the prime minister even says “Iran would have a price to pay if it doesn’t back down from its nuclear ambitions” hinting broadly that Israel might be forced to take action - his strongest words yet about the Iranian threat.

But to sum it all up if Iran is left to continue its program, there is no doubt among the leaders, former leaders, generals etc of Israel that something must be done, so its only option would be a military one as it has done in the past to Iraq’s nuclear program 25 years ago by destroying its compounds.

In the BBC documentary i downloaded it predicts that Iran will reach the point of no return no later than summer 2007, so Israel will need to act before that time, and as far as the leaders mind-set’s are…will.

Then who knows what will be unleashed if or when this happens, but the price of oil will most likely shoot through the roof.

I’m telling this second hand from the video i viewed which if you want to download is available here

BBC Program - - - Will Israel Bomb Iran???[/]

Interesting stuff but sadly could point to a bigger and much more serious unrest in the middle east

2

:dubious: And the “Debate” here is…what? :dubious:

3

It’s one thing to say that Israel can’t allow Iran to build nuclear weapons.

It’s another thing when you ask yourself what could Israel do to stop them.

Bomb Iran? Fact is, it’s not gonna work. A few bombs dropped on a few nuclear research sites might delay the Iranian bomb slightly, but cannot stop it. I’m sure there are people in Israel drawing up contingency plans right now, but the existance of those plans doesn’t mean they are likely to be carried out. Israel has plans on the shelf for war with every country in the middle east, they’d be foolish not to, that doesn’t mean they want war.

So the only thing that can stop the Iranian nuclear bomb is regime change in Tehran. And that ain’t gonna happen just because the US or Israel wishes really hard that it will.

So what are the results if Israel drops a few bombs on Iran? They’ll have to overfly either Turkey or Iraq or Saudi Arabia to bomb Iran, and likely Jordan or Syria too. They aren’t going to get permission from any of those countries. And of course, permission to overfly Iraq wouldn’t come from the Iraqi protogovernment, but rather from the United States. So this pipe-dream where Israel bombs Iran without the US getting blamed is ludicrous.

Israel can’t bomb Iran without American complicity, and even if it could, America would be blamed. You think Iran is going to believe the US when we say we had nothing to do with it, when we clearly would have to give Israeli warplanes permission to overfly Iraq? Of course not. An Israeli bombing would have the same consequences as an American bombing. So if the US doesn’t think bombing Iran is a good idea, why would we sit back and let the Israeli’s do it, when we’ll take the blame?

I can’t guarantee that the Bush administration isn’t so dumb that they don’t realize this, but I think it’s pretty likely that they’ll understand that a bombing by Israel will result in retaliation against the US, and if we’re going to get retaliated against we might as well do the bombing ourselves, we can deliver a lot more ordnance that Israel can.

So either the Bush administration is going to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, or nobody is. And bombing Iranian nuclear facilities doesn’t stop the Iranian bomb, merely delays it. And then we’re looking at war between Iran and the US. Do you think we can just bomb Iran, and they sit there and smile and do nothing? Or are they going to retaliate? Iran largely doesn’t sponsor terrorism against the US, what will it look like if they start? What will happen in Iraq when the Iranians start ramping up? We aren’t going to be able to bomb them, then declare the war over once the bombing is done, no backsies.

4

Don’t people realize that all of the bluster and braggadocio from tehran is just propaganda? the Iranians would be BEYOND foolish, if they ever loosed their missiles on israel. The Iranian president and the mullahs would be sighning their own death warrants-and those of probably 20 million Iranians. Nope: the Iranainas are NOT stupid.

5

It not be far out conspiracy theory, but this is not evidence: contingency planning is their job.

6

Edit: “It might not be far out conspiracy theory…”

7

I’ve always been of the beliefe that the Iranians want the Israeli’s to bomb them. What better way to rally the Iranian people then a bombing by the great satan and/or the zionists?

8

I agree. If it weren’t for an outside threat of bombing or invasion, the Iranian people might get that 2nd revolution going sooner rather than later.

9

The link included in the OP is to a torrent. Do you have permission from the BBC to reproduce and redistribute this material?

Israel will bomb the ever loving shit out of Iran if and when they feel like it. What was the debate again?

10

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11

It would take more than one bombing run for a hostile nation, be it Israel, the U.S., or whoever, to seriously set back Iran’s nuclear program. Israel’s hundreds of miles away from Iran. How many roundtrip sorties are they going to fly?

If anyone’s going to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, it’s going to be the U.S., which has the capacity to park aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, and keep the bombing up for however long it takes.

I’m not saying it’s a good idea for the U.S. to do that; I’m just saying that this looks like way too big a job for Israel.

12

Well the Israelis did take out Saddam’s nuclear plant.

However I would be more inclined to worry about suitcase bombs.

The funny thing is that the US got sicced onto what the Iranians were up to by a load of satellite photos which either came from Father Christmas or the Israelis (source BBC World Service - but they did not mention Santa)

Something makes me think that it was not satellite photos, and probably not the Israelis.

13

Yes, launching nukes at whoever directly from Iranian territory would be suprememly foolish as it would give the US and pretty much anyone else a blank check to run in and remove the current Iranian regime if not simply bomb them back to the stone age.

However, with their own nukes the Iranians gain a whole new level of independance to go about doing whatever they see fit. They could step up terrorist activities. They could invade (with conventional forces) much more easily as any serious retaliation against Iran itself might see them say they throw a nike if anyone tries. They could pack up a nuke in a ship and sail it into any harbor they chose and claim ignorance when it went off. I am not saying they would do any of these things but it is not hard to conjure up scary scenarios.

I doubt the Israelis have the capacity to bomb the facilities with sufficient force to take them out. As I understand it many of the facilities are buried and hardened. It would take a lot to bomb them out and while the Israeli air force is first rate I doubt they could maintain attacks at that distance for long enough to do damage before they were stopped (one way or another). Remember the Osirak reactor in Iraw was above ground so easily taken out. The Iranians paid attention to that and are not making the same mistake.

If Israel did do something I think it more likely they would try to insert some commando forces to go in and do the job. Not saying that it is s simple or trivial thing to try. Just that I bet chances for success would be better. Perhaps a combined gig…bomb them then run in commandos right after in the confusion. Whatever, the Israelis are good at these things…I am sure they have a pile of options they are looking at. While I doubt any are “easy” if any country could pull it off the Israelis are among the few who I think could.

And FWIW I think taking out those facilities would more than set the Iranians back just a little. This equipment is difficult to obtain and highly technical. If you took out all that and perhaps a good deal of the scientists working there it could set them back years.

14

They may not be stupid but they are religous extremists. People of this nature are extremely dangerous. They believe that Allah is on their side and will hand them victory over the infidels.

15

I agree with Imasquare. I think for some Islamic extremists the death of 20 million Iranians would be a fair bargain for wiping out Israel from the face of this earth.

16

A “growing theory”…

I like it.

17

Well again, the mullahs may be fanatics, but why would they sacrifice everything they have built? Iran has its own weapons industry, and is trying to industrialize-the move to nuclear power means that somebody in the Iranian government is planning (for a future withoput cheap oil0. So, I still think that the bellicose talk is just that-talk. The Iranians are not about to risk everything for a chance to wipe out the “zionist entity” (as they call it.
More likely: Iran wants to be the power in the ME; it will seek to dictate some kind of agreement with Israel, and displace Iraq as the dealmaker. The tough talk is meant to drive the Israelis to the bargaining table-something that Syria has never been able to do.

18

The primary use of nuclear weapons is as a deterrent. With an Iranian nuclear bomb, no one could contemplate a military invasion of Iran without risking a nuclear retaliation when the Iranian leadership has nothing left to lose. So yes, having a nuke gives the Iranians a lot more freedom to act aggressively in the Middle East.

But even so, what are we going to do about it? Invade before they get the bomb? Not likely. Bomb their nuclear sites? Very risky action.

As for the religious fanatic mullahs trading 20 million Iranians for the extermination of Israel, well, they might be willing to kill off their people, but are they willing to face loss of power? An Iranian use of nukes means that we have no choice but total war with Iran, until the last mullah left alive surrenders.

19

I think the real problem comes when one considers the potential for their being an important millenarian compenent in their government and how that might possibly color their foreign policy. How many people in a position of power in Iran truly believe that a full-on war with Israel (and other parts of Western civilization, such as it is) would herald and precipitate the End Times? It seems absurd to even consider such lunacy, except in the case of radical Islam, the possibility can’t be ignored, any more than it can be when considering radical Christianity or any other faith with an apocalyptic component. Iran IS a theocracy. At least some of the rulers of that nation DO believe in the eventual return of the Mahdi and the Yawm al-Qiyqmah that follows. It will be a time of great torment and upheaval, no less fearsome than Revelations, according to their faith.

Consider what a relative smattering of “faith-based” government has gotten the United States lately, and multiply that many times in severity. That’s the dreadful X factor that we can’t ever ignore, but we also can’t overephasize lest we cause the very sorts of things we wish to prevent through ignorant bellligerence.

20

Not only that, but its also real!