Turnout will be terrible. The ones who try to emulate him (like DeSantis) will fail abjectly on a national level. And the ones who don’t emulate him won’t drum up support.
Many of the true believers will stay home instead of voting, leaving the rest to deal with the fallout
Trump has damaged not only many of our institutions and traditions and credibility as a nation to those around the world, he’s damaged the RNC to the point it can barely exist on its own.
They’ll have to figure out how to rebuild in a world where they can’t rely on him.
I’d agree that anyone who tries to emulate Trump while (a) running against him, and while (b)Trump himself is campaigning against them would, as you say, fail abjectly. But I’m not sold on the idea that anyone trying to emulate him without saying anything against the guy, and without him saying anything against them, is doomed. For starters, Trump is going to name someone as his running mate pretty soon, and will presumably frame that as the bestest pick ever, really, you can’t believe how good this decision I’ve made is — and if that person never winds up getting on his bad side like Pence, does Trump eventually get to play kingmaker, without even having meant to, by having talked up that person as his choice to keep fighting the good fight?
But his stamp of approval, as it were, didn’t help at all during the midterms. The Republicans underperformed massively and the ones more aligned with him personally did particularly bad. It seems that if he’s not personally on the ballot, his supporters just don’t show up.
I am talking to my Canadian extended family members a lot these days for a particular reason (an elderly family member is nearing the end).
They are almost all (at least my generation and my parents’ generation) right wing nut jobs.
Their devotion to Trump and their desperate wish that they had someone that charismatic north of the 49th parallel is really striking.
The last time I was involved with these folks was in 2016 (same family member’s 80th birthday celebration) they were mocking the US for having Trump as a serious presidential candidate.
A bunch of South Asian immigrants in Canada have now embraced anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideology.
The same thing has happened to the US but since I’m talking to those folks all the time the change from eight years ago to now is less stark.
Regarding future prosecution of Trump, I don’t think that there will be much hesitation going forward. If Garland was trying to avoid the appearance of a politicized prosecution, that ship sailed with the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago. At this point it’s in for a penny in for a pound.
IMHO 2024 will come down to which type of GOP malfeasance has a larger effect. Are the voter suppression efforts at the state level enough to counteract the effect of the graft and dysfunction that comes from rewarding loyalty over competence at the national level?
I’m proposing a counterpoint. Control of the party’s purse-strings is just part of the plan. ALL down ticket members will have to pledge undying loyalty to the monster or be cut off entirely. The loyalty will include (require) outrageous lies, corruption, undermining election confidence, and participation in a new, perhaps more violent, Jan 6th in an attempt to throw the election to the house. The strategy is based on the immigration issue which is being pounded into the minds of the Faux faithful. Fear, hatred and only The Donald can save you (white Jesus) is the order of the day.
Rant perhaps more pertinent to the Evil thread but I’m not seeing the Schadenfreude associated with grabbing all the monies.
Trump is the greatest conman in history. You generally think of conmen as being genial, even charming. Who knew that what it takes to make it really work is being a vile, hateful piece of shit.
I’m thinking they’ll be asked for more than a loyalty pledge, but also a cash donation to the Party. If the check doesn’t clear, candidate Trump will mention how insincere you seem when he stumps in your area.
It worked (sometimes even better) for other people through history. He’s not even the best demagogue ever. Possibly not even the best over the last century.
The big difference for us is that he’s the one we have to deal with.