Nice!
Not a great set of polls for Biden, actually — a statistical tie in Michigan, supposedly the most repentant of the three 2016 fuckup states.
ETA: 538 rates Trafalgar a C-minus, so I won’t worry until the next Michigan poll.
So among all the other bits of information we’re learning: no polls on Discourse? At any rate, the poll that used to be accessible from the first post in this thread, doesn’t seem to be there anymore. (Or maybe I just don’t know where to click to find it…?)
That Michigan poll is from Trafalgar Group, a pollster with a C- rating on 538. The pollsters they have rated as A and B show a much larger gap with Biden leading by double digits. I’m going to need to see more quality polls reproducing the Trafalgar result before I’m convinced.
At this point the old polls seem to have been lost. Maybe they’re on the list of things being repaired. Spoilers, Links & Quotes probably and should have priority though.
Agreed.
Fresh Polls: but nothing from a swing state.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 50, Trump 36 | Biden +14 |
| President Trump Job Approval | NY Times/Siena | Approve 41, Disapprove 56 | Disapprove +15 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Politico/Morning Consult | Approve 39, Disapprove 58 | Disapprove +19 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Harvard-Harris | Biden 56, Trump 44 | Biden +12 |
| — | — | — | — |
| President Trump Job Approval | Harvard-Harris | Approve 43, Disapprove 57 | Disapprove +14 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 45, Disapprove 53 | Disapprove +8 |
Just bought some Biden buttons and bumper stickers. Biden still underwhelms me but we gotta have a change in the White House.
Got some polls today and they look good for Biden, the Country and the World.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump vs. Biden | CNBC | Biden 47, Trump 38 | Biden +9 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 47, Trump 41 | Biden +6 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 49, Trump 38 | Biden +11 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 47, Trump 36 | Biden +11 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 50, Trump 40 | Biden +10 |
| N. Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 49, Trump 40 | Biden +9 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 48, Trump 41 | Biden +7 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | NY Times/Siena | Kelly 47, McSally 38 | Kelly +9 |
| Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters | NY Times/Siena | Peters 41, James 31 | Peters +10 |
| N. Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | NY Times/Siena | Cunningham 42, Tillis 39 | Cunningham +3 |
| N. Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper | NY Times/Siena | Cooper 50, Forest 39 | Cooper +11 |
| Trump Job Approval | CNBC | Approve 39, Dis. 52 | Disapprove +13 |
| Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 47, Dis. 51 | Disapprove +4 |
I hope a run of bad polls from now through November will freak Trump out and make him do more and more desperately stupid things to try to catch up, only to push more and more voters away from him.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | USA Today/Suffolk | Biden 53, Trump 41 | Biden +12 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | East Carolina U. | Biden 45, Trump 44 | Biden +1 |
| New York: Trump vs. Biden | Siena | Biden 57, Trump 32 | Biden +25 |
| North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | East Carolina U. | Cunningham 41, Tillis 41 | Tie |
| North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper | East Carolina U. | Cooper 49, Forest 38 | Cooper +11 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 43, Disapprove 55 | Disapprove +12 |
| President Trump Job Approval | USA Today/Suffolk | Approve 40, Disapprove 58 | Disapprove +18 |
| 2020 Generic Congressional Vote | USA Today/Suffolk | Democrats 51, Republicans 37 | Democrats +14 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Susquehanna | Biden 46, Trump 41 | Biden +5 |
| Wisconsin: | Trafalgar Group | Biden 45, Trump 46 | Trump +1 |
| Direction of Country | Rasmussen Reports | Right Direction 24, Wrong Track 69 | Wrong Track +45 |
Thanks for that, What_Exit.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Economist/YouGov | Biden 49, Trump 40 | Biden +9 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 44, Disapprove 54 | Disapprove +10 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Economist/YouGov | Approve 42, Disapprove 57 | Disapprove +15 |
| Direction of Country | Economist/YouGov | Right Direction 25, Wrong Track 67 | Wrong Track +42 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Trafalgar Group ® | Biden 48, Trump 43 | Biden +5 |
| — | — | — | — |
| Maine: Trump vs. Biden | PPP (D) | Biden 53, Trump 42** | Biden +11** |
| Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon | PPP (D) | Gideon 46, Collins 42 | Gideon +4 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Gallup | Approve 38, Disapprove 57 | Disapprove +19 |
Slow week for polls.
Right now it looks like Biden would win the Electoral with a few spare states and the popular by plenty. The Dems have a fair chance of taking the Senate also, so maybe they could get some things done.
Dont get cocky, GOP Jim Crow Voter suppression laws and shenanigans will stop many of those people from voting.
I’m mostly worried about the potential for Trump and Barr to exploit one or more crises with a week or so remaining in the campaign. I expect some October surprises.
The Trump campaign’s much hyped about “Death Star” was put into motion two months ago but Biden’s lead in the RCP tracker is still on the cusp of double digits. And as shown above individual polls are ominous for Trump. Both in head to head match-ups but also his own record being assessed in approval ratings which he did not have four years ago. George HW Bush won 40 states and won nationally by 7.8% in 1988 only to be defeated four years later. He was a far more popular incumbent that Trump was. In fact his approvals for most of his term were as good as any incumbent. Trump has consistently been among the worst.
His base is not enough alone to eek out another electoral college win. And it looks like in polling the 65+ vote is shifting to Democrats. That’s got the writing on the wall.
Biden is the closest equivalent to a generic Democrat you can get. He’s an old white straight male moderate who may not inspire or enthuse as reasons for lots of people to vote for him but who is not going to scare a lot of people away to vote against him. Pre-Obama enthusiasm wasn’t something I recall anyway. Someone who is really enthused carries as much weight in their vote as someone who sticks their nose up to cast their ballot.
The GOP can’t run an identity campaign against him no matter how hard they try. Right now I am thoroughly enjoying the GOP attempts to make him out to be a socialist or a tool of the “radical left”. Ten years ago his gun control history would have been jumped on as anti-2A but now it’s not working. And I think the most radical left version of Biden is when he led the hearing that blocked Robert Bork’s appointment to the Supreme Court which at the time pissed off a lot of conservatives as vindictive and demagoguery. Other than that he’s pretty much been a median Democrat throughout his career.
Just for the fun of it, I combined 538’s most recent poll numbers, with the 270 to win map, using the following cutoffs
Tossup: spread <= 3.0
Leans: 3.0 < spread <=8.0
Likely: 8.0 < spread <=15.0
Safe: Difference > 15.0
This results in Biden having 249 EV at likely or better, and 323 at lean or better. Meanwhile Trump has only 109 at lean or better, with 106 toss-ups.
This is all very unscientific and there is a long way to go with lots of dirty tricks along the way, but it does give me a warm glow inside.
I did a different experiment with only a binary win/lose choice. I gave Biden every state that he is polling at 5 points or higher than Trump. I gave Trump everything else. Result: Biden 296, Trump 241.
So Biden can drop 5 points from his current polling and still win pretty handily. Maybe as much as 7 points and still pull it out. I’ll take those odds any day. (Not that I think we should be complacent, of course).
I looked at this too. If I did it right Biden can lose though Florida (+6.9), but has to take Pennsylvania (+7.5).
In my market the Trump campaign is going in heavy on the “BIDEN WILL FIRE ALL THE POLICE AND YOU’LL BE MURDERED” theme…which is ridiculous. I find it hard to believe that even the Trumpiest Trump-fans believe that Joe Biden wants to get rid of the police.
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No doubt they plan to try. But all these months of “Biden ahead substantially” is going to make it difficult to sell any storyline in which some supposed Silent Majority actually wants Trump, thereby granting him a genuine 2020 win.
It worked in 2016–people put aside thoughts of dirty tricks (Russian and otherwise) and did credit Trump with a genuine Electoral College win. But that narrative won’t go so smoothly this time–it just won’t be plausible.
I, for one, would say “Eek!” very loudly if he did.
Those ads have been popping up on YouTube for me quite a lot. Hate 'em.