Per 538, here are Biden’s current primary polling averages in Midwestern states and Pennsylvania:
PA: 28.0%
OH: 28.4%
MI: 29.1%
WI: 23.1%
IA: 19.7%
Yeah I know, this is the primary, that’s the general. But still: if he appeals to the midwestern WWC in particular, shouldn’t that boost him somewhat in the primaries as well? After all, you’d think (a) some of those WWC types are already Dems or Dem-leaning independents, and their support would show up here; and (b) to the extent that the Obama/Trump voters were WWC and are reachable by Biden, some of them would be leaning Dem now and supporting Biden in the primaries.
But there’s nothing in these numbers to suggest that Biden has noticeably more appeal in this part of the country than he does generally.
That’s a very good question. He’s supposed to be a “regular guy” even though between 1973 and 2017 he had a high paying cushy government job. Some people act like his career was laying bricks or working on an assembly line.
The problem is that you are looking at polls that only show the top choice. They don’t really speak to who would have a broad base of support in the general election if nominated. One way to get after it is polling who is the second or third choice. We see fewer of those polls in the media. It is the kind of supplemental data that campaigns pay for. Approval ratings might give another look that helps. Even better if you can find those ratings with crosstabs to break out just the approval among Dem and Dem leaning voters. Another way, that we do see some of, is the head to head general election polls.
Biden has typically been doing well in those head to head polls against Trump. The differences between him and the other Dem candidates so far have been small. Those differences are small enough it can be hard to say they are more than just sampling noise. Still Michigan was lost by a quarter percent. Many of the lean slightly blue normally but went for Trump were won by small margins. Small swings are enough.
Isnt he ahead of everyone else? I looked at Wisconsin and he is clearly ahead. When there are that many candidates you cant expect anyone to have a majority this early.
Because he’s the only one with a shot who doesn’t threaten to take people’s private insurance away. He’s relatable, a guy who has overcome more than his share of personal strategy and had the common touch of riding the train to DC every day while in the Senate. He doesn’t scare the piss out of the blue collar workers, is beloved by blacks, and was one of the first to endorse same sex marriage. Let’s cut the bullshit now and nominate him.
He is beloved by older blacks, younger blacks are more likely to prefer Sanders and Warren than their parents. Hillary Clinton won the black vote by a large margin against Sanders, and then when 2016 came around reduced black turnout helped move the northern midwest to the right. But then again, turnout among blacks could be even lower for Sanders or Warren.
Its not an easy trade off. Biden may not scare off the WWC as much as Warren would, but he would demotivate liberals and youth voters under 40, who combined probably make up about 60-70% of all democratic voters. Yeah most of them would vote, but a few would stay home, or not volunteer, or not donate money.
There is no easy answer. Doesn’t matter if we pick the liberal or the moderate candidate, certain people will be demotivated.
Hardly any Democrat is as centrist as I am. Until early 2016, I was a Republican.
So, ideologically I’d prefer Biden, regardless of when he endorsed same sex marriage.
However, Trump is going to try to make this election about how the Democrats tried a coup to reverse the results of 2016, and again are trying to steal it in 2020. By impeaching Trump without having the votes for Senate conviction, the congressional Democrats are walking right into this. To, on top of that, give Trump the Hunter/Ukraine thing to play with is too dangerous.
Am I sure? No. DJT is a very effective negative campaigner against any opponent. I’m wondering if Buttigieg only seems to me a much safer nominee because Donald hasn’t gotten around to him yet. Plus I think Buttigieg is unqualified. But he does seem to me the safest of the top four in terms of ability to stop America from sliding into authoritarianism.
Warren? Trump would be too effective playing up her harmless genealogy mistake.
Sanders? I really, really, don’t like his policies. And if you want to say Sanders/Corbyn, you can. And – this is real – Bernie’s health is shakey. But Biden’s also old, and I’m thinking that the Biden Ukraine problem is a bigger one than being red-bait-able.
Why do people think Biden’s the candidate who can win in the Midwest?
Because when I look at the other candidates in those state polls I see:
PA: Biden +14.7 over Sanders
OH: Biden +9.9 over Sanders
MI: Biden +10.5 over Sanders
WI: Biden +4.5 over Sanders
IA: Biden -1 below Buttigieg but +2.2 over Sanders
Let’s look at a couple of other heartland states:
IL: Biden +6 over Warren
IN: Biden +10 over Sanders
Other than Minnesota, where the polls show Warren and (slightly) Klobuchar ahead, Midwestern Democrats aren’t exactly going for the more progressive Democratic candidates. Why would anyone think they’d do better than Biden in a general election?
Yeah but are those polls from within the democratic primary? Generally the turnout in the democratic primary in a year with a competitive primary is about 1/4 the turnout of the general election. In the 2016 democratic primary about 30 million people voted, vs about 130 million for the general election.
So saying Biden is doing better than other candidates within the democratic primary probably isn’t meaningful, I would assume most of those people will vote in the general and will vote for whoever the democrat is.
I think there’s a scale on scandal attacks. Let’s say the scale runs from Obama’s birth certificate on one (the ineffective) end to Clinton’s e-mails on the other (the effective) end. On this scale Warren and her non Native-American ancestry are closer to the Obama end. Biden and the Ukraine thing are closer to the Clinton end. None the less I still get the impression that Biden would do better than Warren with the working class voters that gave Trump the victory. Right now I find it extremely difficult to determine who has the best chance against Trump, which is my #1 criteria. Right now I’m leaning toward Buttigieg but that’s changed several times.
I think general election matchups in swing states are a better guide to electability and they suggest that Biden has a smallish but consistent edge over Bernie and a bigger edge over Warren.
Furthermore he is a better known quantity than Bernie and his negatives are baked into his numbers. IMO Bernie is more vulnerable to attack ads which, for example, portray him as weak on national security. Finally he has at least one major policy position, abolishing private health insurance, which will be a serious general election liability.
Wesley Clark has already addressed the massive generational gap in his black support. And also, he wasn’t “one of the first” to endorse same sex marriage, though to his credit he did so in 2012, a year ahead of Obama and HRC.
Bernie Sanders formally came out for SSM in 2009, but had a long record of supporting LGBT issues, including voting against the shameful Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. Joe Biden voted for that bill.
Warren says she can’t remember a time when she didn’t support SSM, though in a hasty Google search the earliest I can find her going on the record was 2011, when she first started running for the Senate.
I couldn’t easily find a cite for Pete Buttigieg’s first public statement on the issue, but I’m just gonna go out on a limb and guess he was probably pro-SSM before Biden was, too.
Not that I think this should be a crucial factor in deciding anyone’s vote, but it’s factually true that Biden was not in the forefront on that issue.
The Democratic Party is going to stick with the original plan of nominating the senior most white person in the party. Because their time has come. Next up to bat. Familiar face with a history of inside Washington. That’s what everyone wants.
Will work about as well as the last time it was tried. Which is every election in the past.
I think the answer is pretty straightforward: he’s a household name and he’s campaigning on proposals that are relatively safe.
In my mind, there are two fundamental truths to keep in mind:
Any Democratic nominee is probably going to make the race look competitive. Given how partisan things are now, I could see any of the major candidates getting close to a minimum of 250 electoral votes. California, New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois are going to vote for Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg. Very few states are in play – at least for right now.
Any Democratic nominee is going to have a very hard time beating Trump if the economy is this good in 7 months. That’s true whether it’s Sanders or Biden.
But Biden gives them the best chance in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Voters know who Biden is. They know he’s old, but if they’re fed up with Trump, that fact won’t matter. Just like if they believe Trump is doing his job, it probably won’t matter if Buttigieg brings his youth to the table.
Why, is anyone saying they’ve got some special sauce in the Midwest? Seems they’re trailing there by more or less the same that they’re trailing nationally. And Biden’s leading in those states by about the same degree he’s leading nationally. He’s got no special sauce there, and neither does anyone else. That’s all.
