The above quote exemplifies the fear that a lot of folks who oppose him have. I completely understand and do share it.
But on thinking about it, I wonder… I think there’s a better than even chance that Trump would actually have a much tougher time of it during a second term. Why? Once a Republican once again has the top two jobs in the executive branch, what do the powerful conservatives in government, business, and media need Trump for? Is there anything he can do that Pence can’t or won’t? How many of them like or respect him personally, or are not only dependent on him, but trust him to fill their needs? What gain do any of them get by installing Trump as a dictator? Where are his hardcore supporters going to go, if they even remember any of their emotions in two or four years, the Green Party? We’re already seeing a rift right now with the Lincoln Project and Fox News’s reactions over the last four years.
I think there’s a very real chance that if Trump is re-elected and starts acting up again, thinking he’s invincible, he’ll get more and more forceful pushback from his own party and Fox. Maybe a LOT more. I can easily envision him getting mad and frustrated, accelerating the pushback, ending in another impeachment attempt… this one succeeding with margins beyond what anyone expects.
I’m not saying any of this is a reason to re-elect Trump, nor do I think any of this affects the danger of normalizing what he’s doing. I’m just pondering the possibility that if he wins re-election, his usefulness to the people shielding him up to now effectively comes to an end, and I think the results could be potentially amusing…
…nope. They’ve already pretty much ignored the process now. Acting heads of departments that have been ruled illegal. Ignoring subpoenas. Stephen Miller running immigration. Kushner running everything else. Stripping the Federal government of people, resources and power. What they are doing to the Post Office. Firing the Inspector Generals. The Attorney General acting at the Presidents pleasure.
What makes you think that this will stop if Trump retains power? It won’t stop. It will accelerate. Members of Qanon will get elected in the next round of elections. The pushback will get crushed. That’s what happens when authoritarian strongmen retain power. Its a fantasy to believe that Trump getting a a second term will be anything but an utter disaster for American democracy.
They’ll need the same thing they’ve always needed - approval from Trump’s base. Stuff like the Lincoln Project represents a very small minority of GOP voters. The scenario where Trump doesn’t have to get reelected, but the other GOP politicians still do, and conservative media and special interest groups are still reliant on Trump personally approving of them is scary.
Also, the only thing that will matter at that point will be impeachment. We’ve already seen in the first term that nothing in US politics actually works as a check on the president unless it is backed up by willingness to impeach. So you don’t just need more tepid hand-wringing and brow-furrowing; you need large numbers of GOP politicians to actually be willing to remove Trump from office.
I am reminded of the quote that is often misattributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
The Republicans in Congress have shown absolutely no willingness to stand up to Trump like the Founders thought they would when confronted with a authoritarian, lawless President who flouts the Constitution. Why would they start now? All they appear to care about is re-election, not what’s best for the country, and to get re-elected they apparently think they need support from Trump and his misguided base. I see no reason why this would change.
There will always be another election to worry about, and Trump will still have his megaphone and his Twitter account.
The argument that a President Pence would be just fine for the GOP congress members is based on assumptions about policy decisions & judicial appointments. That is most likely true.
However, the calculations that the GOP congress members are making is not based on policy, instead the calculations are based on politics. The Trump supporters are the voters that they need to placate in order to keep their jobs. If they had voted for removal in the impeachment process, they feared that they would have been tarred and feathered (so to speak) by their constituencies. That will not change in a Trump II term, no matter the level of corruption or bad actions.
As long as Trump has a media presence (whether as President or not) he will be able to whip up his base. Who will in turn exert out-sized influence over the “normal” Rs.
Trump derangement syndrome is real. But it isn’t lefties deranged by Trump’s antics. It’s the “normal” mainstream right wing deranged by Trumps’ followers. Who in turn are deliberately deranged by Trump.
I explained this, even if you don’t agree. I had a theory it would stop because the people who are currently letting him do what he wants stop letting him, because they have much less reason to put up with him once the White House is secure.
As for needing the votes of his base, as brought up by the other replies, I addressed that too, although not in very much detail. I don’t think Trump’s base, the people who actually like and admire him (which is very different even from just agreeing with him), is all that big. I think a plurality of those who vote for him do so because he’s a Republican or because they like his racist policies. And the vast majority of those voters of any kind are, as liberals complain all the time, easily influenced. A couple of months of Fox News pushing things in the right direction will have them cheerfully agreeing with anything the oligarchs want, which includes impeachment. Besides, where else do they have to go? Nowhere. The worst they can do is stay home, which is admittedly pretty bad, but I simply do not think that would be a significant source of lost votes. Haven’t we been discussing the president’s lack of coattails for the past two years? How many voters who would otherwise vote for Republicans won’t do so if something happens to their idol? I don’t think that number is all that significant. And if Republicans in general do poorly in 2020, that calculus changes even more, even if Trump is re-elected.
I guess what it comes down to is that I am skeptical of the idea that the Republican Party is the permanent party of Trump. Trumpian rhetoric and ideals, sure, but not the man himself, not yet, and that isn’t an insignificant difference. Look, I’m not saying Trump being re-elected wouldn’t be a huge clusterfuck and incredibly damaging to the citizens of this country. I’m saying that the circumstances that lead McConnell and his buddies to let Trump off the hook right now change significantly once he’s a “lame duck.” And since again, I see no benefit to them as a group in letting Trump gain ultimate power, the only thing left tying them to him is the votes of his hardcore fans, and I think their power diminishes greatly after this year.
I could be wrong. I probably am. But it all comes down to not thinking that a second Trump term would be exactly the same as his first in terms of the political calculus and the atmosphere surrounding him. I don’t think he’s the god-king he and his fans think he is. Do you?
I read something that was kind of chilling a few weeks ago. It was something I hadn’t really considered, but as soon as I read it I realized it was very likely true.
Trump isn’t going away if he loses. I don’t mean that he will refuse to vacate the White House or leave office - I’ve never subscribed to the theory that he won’t- he’ll make some noise but he’ll eventually go. But he’ll probably start his Trump 2024 campaign on January 21st. I imagine he’ll get not just a TV show, but an entire Trump network. He’ll spend his mornings on Twitter, his afternoons on TV and his evenings holding rallies. He’s going to manage to be as loud and obnoxious as ever. He might revive Trump U and his other scams as well. Like it or not, he’s going to be loud.
I agree, but as you’ve probably guessed from my previous reply, I just don’t see how he’d wield significant power and influence this way. That’s likely the fundamental difference here: how we see his base (not his voters, which I think is an entirely different kettle of fish). I guess time will tell who’s right.
I personally don’t think it’s just about being easily influenced, and I don’t think Trump’s true base is small by any stretch. Trump taps into a lot of the unconscious desires of a ton of predominantly white Americans who use him to make up for their deep-seeded feelings of resentment and shame for a huge variety of reasons. The GOP establishment tried to appeal to this demographic with people like Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush and it utterly failed. The GOP wants to be able to put respectable politicians up that can reach their base in a positive (at least superficially) way, but most of their base wants open nationalism and demagoguery. Just take a look at the 2016 primaries - the only candidates who got any traction from GOP primary voters were Trump and Cruz.
People who are vocal about politics in person and on message boards are a very small minority, and they are the more informed ones (even people who seem to make absolutely no sense). There are a ton of extremely dedicated people who respond heavily on an emotional level. Rationally, what Trump has recently done to the USPS should be a bridge too far. I think a lot of conservatives who have been conflicted about Trump might use this as a reason to vote third party, but they are a tiny minority. For most of the base, he’s their personal savior and they don’t bother to pretend to care about details like what he’s actually doing.
Sure, but once he’s no longer president he loses all the automatic media coverage devoted to everything that person says and does. Remember, other than Fox, most of the big media despise him. When his thoughts and actions no longer have consequence, they’ll be consigned to fringe websites.
Also, once he’s no longer POTUS, he’ll be subject to civil and criminal actions from every jurisdiction in the country. Anything he blurts on Twitter could conceivably trigger something, because he’s too stupid to not realize when he’s incriminating himself.
But that’s where the media, especially Fox, comes in. The reason the USPS isn’t considered “a bridge too far” (and I’m not sure how much the average Republican voter would care as a baseline) is because Fox News says so. If they said differently, I think the discussion would at least be altered.
And I think you may be right that the modern GOP base generally wants open nationalism and demagoguery. But I still don’t think that necessarily translates to unyielding support for Trump in specific. To be sure, it’s a threat to democracy even without him, but I don’t think that the point of view that what Trump has unleashed is more dangerous than the man himself has been controversial. Isn’t that one of the things that people who fear “a smarter Trump” (who I’m still not sure exists in a practical sense) are thinking of?
I do think Trump for the most part was just at the right place at the right time to catch this wave. The only other special things about him that made him so popular with Republicans are starting his campaign with saying that Mexico is sending rapists and murderers, and just that he generally projects confidence and defiance at all times. The sentiment can easily be replicated by someone much smarter.
For his base, as long as they still believe he’s protecting what they think of as American culture, they don’t actually care about things like voter suppression or corruption, regardless of what Fox tells them about it. Support for Trump is about his direct appeal to emotion.
The argument presented by the OP is very similar to one that was heavily pushed by foreign operatives in 2016: that electing Trump would be no big deal because he’d quickly become bored, and either quit or just let others govern. 'So why oppose Trump? He can’t do any harm!’
It seems likely that this new argument is near the top of the “push this idea” daily work assignments of today’s operatives. ‘Trump can’t do much harm so what’s the big deal if he gets re-elected…’
Very familiar. Completely bogus argument, of course. If Trump stays in, the rule of law will be gone. Critics and rivals will be eliminated–perhaps not through violence right away, but through show trials and imprisonment. And those who flatter and enrich Trump will prosper (at least unless and until he takes an irrational dislike to them…)
And not unworthy of mention: a certain Russian dictator will benefit to the tune of the complete removal of sanctions, removal of all opposition to armed aggression in Europe, and no doubt plenty of other goodies.
No, I don’t think the ideas are similar at all. I’m not questioning that Trump will do whatever he can get away with to flex and remain in power. I’m questioning the conventional wisdom that if Trump is re-elected, the current state of enablement by parties in Congress and the media will remain exactly the same as it is now. I’m questioning the conventional wisdom that the real movers and shakers in the party have reason (or the stupidity) to actually support Trump becoming a dictator and taking away their own power.
IOW, why would McConnell continue to support Trump as firmly as he does now? Why would mainstream conservative media continue to coddle him as they are now? Other replies suggested an answer to this, but I’m not totally convinced.
Again, I’m very sure that Trump will continue to think he’s an all powerful god-emperor if he’s re-elected (or even if he’s not). I’m not so sure whether he WILL be, practically speaking.
The people that are “currently letting him do what he wants” are currently “getting everything that they want”, and they will continue to get everything they want if Trump retains power. I understand that this is your “theory.” But your theory is based on nothing.
For starters, why would Fox news reverse course? Your theories are predicated on people or institutions changing behaviour. But what is there to suggest that Fox would all of a sudden stop supporting Trump? Who would they throw there support behind?
In the original Republican primaries Trump destroyed his opposition. Experienced, career politicians. They didn’t stand a chance. Joe Walsh, famous for being a Tea Party member who called Obama a muslim, has over the last couple of years genuinely (IMHO) flipped from being a racist provocateur to being (still an extreme right wing) a supporter of Black Lives Matter, defender of Iilhan Omar, and last night was full of praise of Obamas speech. Walsh tried to primary Trump. But he (and other challengers) hit a major roadblock when multiple States decided to cancel their primaries.
I don’t think you really understand how powerful Trumpism is. They are completely dominant. And many of them are corrupt, and they know if Trump loses power that corruption will be exposed. Loyalists have been seeded throughout the Republican party, throughout the Federal government, they report disloyalty, they rule through a culture of fear.
You are assuming a “perfect system”, where Trump and Co aren’t suppressing the vote, aren’t allowing foreign interference, aren’t doing absolutely everything they can do to win. This is the most corrupt administration in history, and to think that they won’t “cheat” at the next election is magical thinking. A good way to look at it is to imagine that everything they “accuse other people” of doing, they are doing themselves.
They are getting everything they want. They are looting the country, they are rapidly reshaping the judiciary, they are closing the borders, removing protections from the LGBT community.
They are reshaping society in the way that they want it. With white men in control, the way that it should be.
This is a white supremacist authoritarian regime in the making. And a Trump victory this year will entrench that regime. Michelle Obama said “If You Think Things Cannot Possibly Get Worse, Trust Me — They Can.” Her husband said " "our worst impulses unleashed, our proud reputation around the world badly diminished, and our democratic institutions threatened like never before".
You really need to believe what the Obama’s are saying. The evidence is yelling at you, screaming at you, that they aren’t going to “cut Trump loose” if he gets reelected.
The reality is that it doesn’t matter what I think. it doesn’t matter if his fans think he is a “god king.” If Trump gets reelected then the handrails come off. Everything accelerates. Everything gets worse. The political calculus will be “nobody can stop us.” Its magical thinking to consider otherwise.
He might be pretty busy being indicted. It seems fairly likely that there are plenty of felony fraud cases that are pretty easy to prove and that he’s mostly skated by in the past because prosecutors and the politically connected didn’t take him seriously and because that sort of crime is woefully underprosecuted in general. That state of affairs is probably over.
I’ll add only: this is the way authoritarianism works. One guy gets to the top, by whatever means. The others would certainly like to be at the top themselves, but those with half a brain realize that they can’t all be at the top at the same time. So they agree to support the guy at the top in exchange for getting things they want–power, money, influence, and in the case of people like Bill Barr, the chance to see their personal religious views imposed on the entire population.
It’s oligarchy. Putin can’t rule an entire nation by himself–he needs a bunch of guys who are getting rich and getting to do crimes without any consequences, to support him. Trump is a great admirer of that system. And he, and people like McConnell and the Murdochs, are fine with making it a reality in the USA.
That’s arguable. At the moment, Twitter refuses to ban Trump’s account (despite otherwise violating their terms of service), saying that his tweets are newsworthy. That is, they hold him to a different standard because he’s the POTUS. Take that away, and their argument also goes away.
He’ll still have some platform or other, but be increasingly marginalized. When’s the last time anyone saw anything from Alex Jones?
I typed up a reply to another post or two here, but I still couldn’t shake the feeling I was still trying to refute arguments towards things I never said. I don’t know to what extent that’s my doing, but I know there’s a difference between not intending to say something and actually not saying it.
So I’ll have to think about how I want to approach this, because obviously the one I’m on now is just frustrating people, including myself. Thanks to everyone who gave me something to think about.