So, the Alberta Liberals [Aside: such things exist? :eek: ] have taken the riding held by former Premier Ralph Klein since the early 80s.
Does this mean foreshadow the end of the PC regime, which has held power in Alberta since 1971? or is it just the kind of electoral upset one would expect from time to time, without any major significance?
what say you, Alberta Dopers?
If Stelmach doesn’t start responding to the city’s needs in Alberta (where a vast majority of the votes reside) then he has doomed his party. Don’t ask me why the Conservative party decided on this hayseed as premier when there were two better choices, but he had better wake up and start handing out some of the billions he is collecting (well, unless he plans on using that money to eventual wipe out personal taxes in Alberta. In that case, I’d vote for him forever and even claim he was better than Ralph. I’ve heard of no such plan from him, though).
Well, one election means nothing. The Liberals won by 900 votes. Now sure, this is unprecedented for Calgary, but it could have been that the Conservative candidate was unlikeable or didn’t have a decent organization behind him, or some other local issue.
That said, I’m worried about the Stelmach government. I really, really disliked Stelmach stacking the cabinet with rural people. The biggest challenges in this province right now are high spending in the cities, infrastructure in the cities, and resource management/development in the oil sands. This government on paper looks spectacularly unsuited to those challenges. For example:
Our new minister of advanced education and technology is a rural banker who has a 2-year diploma in business.
The new Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation is a small businessman with a high school education who grew up and lives on a farm and who has worked as an ‘oil field consultant’.
The new minister of Education and Housing has, as far as I can tell, never held a real job. His bio says he ‘studied science at the University of Alberta’ (which probably means he dropped out or the official bio would have mentioned the degree), and ‘represented and served the community in many municipal and volunteer capacities’. So he got out of school and just started volunteering around and offering to serve on committees. Now he’s in the government.
There are a few qualified people there - Mel Knight looks like exactly the kind of person who should be chairing Energy. They should all have resumes like that. But they don’t.
Ralph had a team of pros behind him, with tons of experience and education. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve got the jitters. Stelmach’s government looks like a bunch of random guys who just happened to land on the top of the heap after their party was shaken up a bit. And Stelmach himself doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me.
I think the Conservatives may be getting ripe for a bit of a smackdown at some point. But it’s more likely to come from the right than the left.
What party is to their right?
I’m not sure I’d count on the AA putting up that strong showing - a lot of their success in 2004 was due to a charismatic leader, who’s since stepped down as leader, and they haven’t chosen a successor after three years. And in both by-elections, they failed to break 5%. Maybe their candidates sucked, but it’s not a good sign in any case. In Drumheller, they dropped from 13.5% to just under 5.
Not to mention that all these transplants to Alberta have to eventually start having an effect on the political scene.
That’s something you don’t hear very often these days, a degree in ‘science’. It sounds like the type of qualification that would be pursued by either a world-shaking intellect, or a complete cabbage.
One thing that has not been addressed is the shifting demographics of Calgary. For about the last 10 yrs, and certianly before that, Calgary has been a desination for job seekers from all over Canada. These “newcomers” have brought their political leanings with them. As Alberta tends to be a little more “right” than many other provinces, it is not surprising that the influx of new voters has influenced polls and elections.
Regards
FML
It is just my opinion, of course, but I’d think people who pick up roots and move out west would be more independent minded and vote more conservatively because of it.
I think the vast amounts of immigration into Alberta have got to move the politics left a bit at some point. A lot of the immigrants are trade unionists, who don’t tend to be all that conservative. But Conservatives tend to win by such big margins in the South that I doubt they can swing any seats. What may happen, however, is that as the north gets more populated it starts getting more representation, and they may trend more Liberal. Edmonton’s a good example. We have a large immigrant population, and we’re the most left-leaning city in the Province.
I think just by general logic it has to be the case. Alberta is, by any reasonable standard, the most conservative province in Canada. Just about any general group of people that would move to the province from the rest of the country would have to be less conservative.
Unless it is the conservative elements that are moving to Alberta. Who would be more likely to move for increased job opportunities? Someone from the left who is inclined to look to government for help, or someone who looks askance at government involvement and takes matter’s into their own hands?
Have we seen an upsurge of trade unionism in the province? If not, maybe they are trade unionists who don’t want to be subject to the limitations that trade unions place upon the individual.
It is possible that Alberta is currently acting as a magnet for other conservatives in Canada. Which would ultimately make the country even more polarized.
Uzi: Most of the immigration right now is trades people, from what I understand. The oil patch is hiring them by the thousands, and the oil boom has caused infrastructure problems that are creating a lot of jobs in construction.
Yep, from all over the world they are coming. It reminds me so much of Dubai (other than the lack of vision, but I can’t expect more from a guy like Stelmach) that I wonder how long it will be before the locals (a relative term in Alberta at any time, in the cities at least) are outnumbered by the transplants.
Ah yes. Only good conservatives want to work, and leftys just want to live off the government hog. People that are moving for job opportunities are people that are looking for job opportunities. I don’t know that you can generalize any further information about them other than that, save an actual survey.
Who traditionally looks to government more to solve societal issues and needs, at least from an economical point of view?
Maybe you missed where I said, “in my opinion” in a previous post?
I’m not sure I’ve ever used this phrase here before, but… cite?
I didn’t. Does “in my opinion” mean people can’t disagree with you?
You need a cite to know that traditionally conservatives are adverse to government involvement while liberals tend to be advocates for it? Now in practice, I’m sure they both try and build empires as any bureaucracy tends to do.
From your tone (as I interpreted it) it looked like you were trying to lock me into something I wasn’t wedded to. So, I agree with you we can’t know until someone does research. It just makes sense to me that people who take their fate into their own hands are less likely to want big government to interfere with them, or need it to support them.
That’s far more a libertarian attitude than a conservative one. Conservatives, in general, are perfectly content with government interference.
Not this fiscal conservative. You should spend where it is required, not just because you can.
Official policies of both Alberta political parties (Do I need to include the NDP as a group of people who believe in small government? Nah.)
The PC’s say they want to minimize taxation, while the Liberals criticize them for spending freely, but then say they want to make a number of industries private again. They also keeping harping on oil reserves depleting as if it is going to happen tomorrow instead of a couple of hundred years from now. My mistake. It was a blip. Anyone who thinks the oil sands will run out anytime soon doesn’t deserve to be elected dog catcher as it is pretty simple to find out that it isn’t true. Even the conservatives should be smart enough to point this major error out to the voting population come a general election.
AB reserves (pdf)