No, Edmonton is quite liberal. It has been liberal for decades. And Calgary can lean that way.
So, to win this election, the NDP had to capitalize on those tendencies, and also extend them into the “donut” ridings (the satellite cities and towns around Edmonton and Calgary). This did not happen. Despite a very unattractive Leader in Danielle Smith, and the UCP’s mediocre record in power, the UCP won. Why? Liberal inclinations were checked by something else. I’m saying the Left has baggage too, and that baggage is turning off the voters.
No, I said Alberta. Alberta as a whole is overwhelmingly conservative. Calgary was very close this time. A few thousand votes would have changed Calgary, which I think I said. The NDP making this competitive was always going to be a major challenge.
There’s a LOT of very wealthy people in Alberta thanks in large part due to the energy sector. Lots of head offices in Calgary. The fact the NDP did so well there is a bit of a wonder in and of itself.
Much of that “baggage” is in my opinion, a load of dingo’s kidneys.
Some of this “baggage” consisted of “We hate Trudeau and so should you and Notley is Trudeau’s friend and will do what the bad Trudeau tells here to do.” In other words, bullshit.
Some other baggage is “Ohh, the NDP are “woke”. What is “woke”? We don’t know and we won’t define it, but it’s bad and it’s telling you to do things you don’t like”. In other words, bullshit.
“Woke” is a bullshit term that the right co-opted. It basically meant “Treat others who are different from you with respect and give them equal rights”. But it now means “silly bad people who tell me what to do.”
Just to put the closeness of this election into historical context:
The conservatives won (subject to recounts) 49/87 seats (56.3%) to get a majority.
This is the fewest number of seats a winning party received since the 1971 election of Peter Lougheed’s party, when he ousted the Social Credit dynasty. And this was out of only 75 seats, so the PC’s won 65% of available seats.
In fact, if one looks at percentage of available seats, it looks to me like this was the closest election in well… Ever as far as I can see.
Interestingly, in Lougheed’s historic 1971 win, the Progressive Conservatives were a city party. They won 16/16 Edmonton ridings and 9/13 Calgary ridings. What we are now seeing is the “new” Conservative party being much more a rural party.
Returning to their Socred roots. It was a different type of conservativism than Lougheed’s Progressive Conservativism. Steele has acknowledged that Notley is closer to Lougheed’s political views than Steele is.
Danielle Smith had a 46% approval rating just before the election. That’s 16 points higher than Jason Kenney, and higher than the premiers of Ontario, New Brunswick and Manitoba, and just behind the Premier of BC.
Another poll at the beginning of May had Notley and Smith with identical personal popularity: 42% approve, 47% disapprove, 11% unsure.
It looks like Smith as a candidate did not hurt the UPC at all. And it helped them a lot over a Kenney alternative.
The poll in question is about halfway down the page.
It will be a long if entertaining four years. So Smith has decided that despite their having lost, failed UCP candidates will have a voice in government and a sweet cheque.
Appearing Tuesday morning on 630 CHED, Smith said to ensure Edmonton isn’t overlooked, she will put together a “council” of UCP candidates who lost in Edmonton.
“Some got a lot closer than I think anybody would have ever expected, so I’m going to rely on them to continue giving me advice because our capital city is vitally important to the overall success of Alberta,” said Smith.
I hope having to pay civil servants we didn’t elect to put forth ideas the electorate has already explicitly rejected doesn’t cut into the 20 billion dollars Smith wants to give away to private concerns for no reason. Strange that she thinks Edmonton would be overlooked when there are a whole bunch of freshly-elected MLAs ready to represent. This is, presumably, agile governance.
I call it “attempting to circumvent our legislative process”. It wouldn’t be the first time she’s shown contempt for how things are done. She thought she was endowed with the powers of a U.S. Governor a while back. Probably not one of the good ones either.
