As a Steeler fan, let me express my gratitude to the Giants for giving us a big bit of help yesterday.
Also, thanks again for taking Plax off our hands! 
On both and on behalf of Giants fans you are very welcomed on both.
Coughlin seems to be handling Plax very well and Eli likes having the big target.
Jim
You’re getting your wish at halftime. 
28-0 at halftime! Oh, I am cackling with evil glee. The way Dallas has beaten the 'Skins up in the last 8 years or so, nothing is more satisfying than seeing them get knocked to the ground and then kicked in the teeth. I don’t see how the second half of this game could possibly be as sweet as the first, but I remain hopeful.
It is looking really good. I can’t believe 28-0. Whay happened to Dallas?
I was happy enough beating KC with an untried O-Line and Pierce out. This is the icing on top.
If the Bears lose it will be a perfect weekend for Giant Fans. It would move us to the 2 seed.
Jim
35-7
Here come the COWBOYS!
I know it looks like it now, but talk to me in Week 9 of the 2007 season, when Tiki will be 32 and will still have 1.5 high-salary years left. The number of top RBs who don’t fall of the performance cliff at age 32 or earlier is miniscule.
Curtis Martin:
Age 31 – 1697 yds, 4.6 YPC
Age 32 – 735 yds, 3.3 YPC
Walter Payton:
Age 31 – 1551, 4.8
Age 32 – 1333, 4.2
Age 33 – 533, 3.7
Eric Dickerson:
Age 29 – 1311, 4.2
Age 30 – 677, 4.1
Age 31 – 536, 3.2
Tony Dorsett:
Age 31 – 1307, 4.3
Age 32 – 748, 4.1
Age 33 – 456, 3.5
Marshall Faulk:
Age 28 – 1382, 5.3
Age 29 – 953, 4.5
Age 30 – 818, 3.9
Thurman Thomas:
Age 30 – 1033, 3.7
Age 31 – 643, 4.2
Age 32 – 381, 4.1
OJ Simpson:
Age 29 – 1503, 5.2
Age 30 – 557, 4.4
Age 31 – 593, 3.7
Ricky Watters:
Age 31 – 1242, 4.5
Age 32 – 318, 4.4
Even the super-durable Emmit Smith, who didn’t suffer a huge dropoff until his two seasons with Arizona (which never happened, by the way), put up very pedestrian numbers in his early 30s:
Emmit Smith:
Age 31 – 1203, 4.1
Age 32 – 1021, 3.9
Age 33 – 975, 3.8
An obvious objection would be that many of these drop-offs are due to injury. Well, yes, that’s what happens to aging RBs. If Tiki is able to stay healthy, a best case scenario for his mid-30s might be something like Marcus Allen’s production:
Marcus Allen:
Age 32 – 301, 4.5
Age 33 – 764, 3.7
Age 34 – 709, 3.8
Age 35 – 890, 4.3
Age 36 – 830, 4.0
Age 37 – 505, 4.1
However, Marcus Allen’s late-career production is literally a one in a hundred case.
John Riggins and Otis Anderson both had late-career resurgences, but they were big, bruising RBs who had low YPC averages, and only put up big yardage numbers because they were durable and played in smash-mouth offenses that ran a ton because of always playing with a lead. There’s no comparison there to Tiki, who relies on speed and agility, not brute strength.
Based on historical trends, I think it’s probable that Tiki will have another very good year in '06, though there is also a real possibility of his skills suffering greatly. In '07, the first year of the extension, it seems at least as likely as not that he will fall off the cliff (IMHO, it’s probable). By '08, A Tiki Barber whose production even approaches his '05 production would be an anomaly of historic proportions.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Tiki Barber, and I would love to see him contributing in some way into his mid-30s if there were no such thing as a salary cap. All I’m saying is that you should enjoy him while it lasts.
That’s an awful lot of data you’re using in your refutation. Who are you trying to convince, me or you?
As I’ve said before, I don’t think that age or years in the league is relevant to Tiki’s case. I think wear and tear is all about carries. I’d be curious how many carries all those guys you cited had before their precipitous dropoffs, and then project out how many more carries Tiki can have before getting into no-man’s land.
Let’s see:
Sweetness: 3,692 carries before falling off the cliff
Emmitt Smith: 3,537
Curtis Martin: 3,298
Marcus Allen: 2,898
Spermin’ Thurman: 2,566
Ricky Watters: 2,550
Eric Dickerson: 2,450
Tony Dorsett: 2,441
Marshall Faulk: 2,367
The Juice: 1,997
I think it’s fair to say that these guys broke down at around 2,500 carries. There are of course the few select RB gods like Payton, Martin and Smith, but even I would agree that production like that is asking too much. So I’ll settle for 2,500 carries from Tiki.
Since he currently has 1816 carries, I see two solid years left at least. Tiki didn’t become a feature back until 2002, and has been averaging just under 20 carries a game since then. Projecting forward, this means he’s got 34 games left before falling off the cliff. So at your week 9 in 2007 cutoff, he has every chance to still be the demon that he is now. I expect him to finish 2007 strong, and be playing the role Marshall Faulk is currently for the 2008 season. Works for me.
Also, remember that Tiki doesn’t take that many huge hits. Contrary to your belief, he is not a speed back. In fact, he’s never been a speed back, though I’d agree he’s probably lost a half step. But that’s mostly irrelevant, as Tiki is all about angles. He is the cutback king, and quite often avoids the big hit, which may help to extend his career into the high 2000s of carries.
Btw, I just want it on the record that IMO, Walter Payton is the best there ever was, and likely is the best there ever will be. Ladainian Tomlinson is so not in his league as to be an insult to even dare make the comparison. Sweetness was truly the GOAT.
I just noticed that Tiki is averaging 4.6 yards per carry for his entire career. To put that into perspective:
The Juice: 4.7
Sweetness: 4.4
Eric Dickerson: 4.4
Tony Dorsett: 4.3
Marshall Faulk: 4.3
Emmitt Smith: 4.2
Spermin’ Thurman: 4.2
Marcus Allen: 4.1
Ricky Watters: 4.1
Curtis Martin: 4.0
Not germaine to anything, other than saying “Tiki rules!” hehheh.
Alexander must have been pissing his pants after the game yesterday. I see he piled up an ungodly amount of yards as well. Boy must still be pissed about last year. (BWAHAHAHA) Hopefully, Tiki can do the same thing to him Cu-Mart did to him last year. That would be grand.
Did I imagine it, or did the Redskins basically demolish the Cowboys today?
Been waiting a loooooong time for this one. 
Giants are up next, but in the meantime…wow. Just wow.
Big game coming up next week. Redskins are pumped up and on a roll, and will certainly be looking for some payback. And it’s in Washington.
I like the Giants. Tiki rushed for over 200 last time they played, so I’m thinking 120 isn’t out of the question. Shockey will have his one drop, and Eli will toss a pick or two, but I think the DL can use and abuse Brunell again.
I’m glad the Skins have something to play for next week. Any time you have big games between NFC East teams in December, look for some hardnosed oldschool football. Me likey.
Now if only the Falcons can pull out the win over the Bears, it will have been a perfect week.
OK, so the 4th Quarter comeback didn’t quite pan out as I had hoped. 
DA
BEARS!
Thank you for putting the Redskins in the driver’s seat for the last NFC wildcard spot. Now all they have to do is win out. 
Yes, the Giants game next week is going to be big. However, I think that the 'skins can tackle a little bit better than the Chiefs can. I also hope the 'Skins don’t pull what they did after a dominant performance over SF early this year, and completely go into the tank the next week. If Gibbs can keep them focused and fired up this week.
My prediction for the opening line: WAS -3, O/U 39 1/2.
If Gibbs can keep them focused and fired up this week, he continued, they’ve got a good shot at the G-men.
Hey, I’d love to be wrong here. I was just having fun going through the data.
Well, there aren’t many historical comparisons to Tiki, since RBs who play at his level for an extended period of time tend to earn a starter’s role from the start of their careers, or by their 2nd year at the latest. Tiki wasn’t a featured back until his 4th year, and had only 392 touches (rushes+receptions) before then. There are a few players who followed a similar career path, however.
Priest Holmes, 378 touches in first 3 seasons, fell off the cliff (FOTC) after 1,928 touches:
Age 30 – 1555, 4.8
Age 31 – 892, 4.6
Age 32 – 451, 3.8
Jim Taylor, 430 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1,626 touches:
Age 29 – 1169, 5.0
Age 30 – 734, 3.5
Garrison Hearst, 438 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 2038 touches:
Age 30 – 1206, 4.8
Age 31 – 972, 4.5
Age 32 – 768, 4.3
Age 33 (FOTC) – 81, 4.0
James Brooks, 407 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1, 856 touches:
Age 32 – 1004, 5.1
Age 33 – 571, 3.8
Stephen Davis, 237 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1,861 touches:
Age 29 – 1444, 4.5
Age 30 – 92, 3.8
Age 31 (2005) – 549, 3.0
Chris Warren, 258 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1, 825 touches:
Age 28 – 855, 4.2
Age 29 – 847, 4.2
Age 30 – 291, 4.9
Mike Pruitt, 265 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1,680 touches:
Age 29 – 1184, 4.0
Age 30 – 506, 3.1
Charlie Garner, 315 touches in 3 years, FOTC after 1,917 touches:
Age 30 – 962, 5.3
Age 31 – 553, 4.6
Age 32 (FOTC) – 30, 3.7
Garner and Holmes are probably the best comparisons.
This list has not reassured me, but, admittedly, there is some wiggle room here for your position. None of these players had nearly as high a proportion of their touches come in the form of receptions in their first three years, and only Garner comes close over his whole career. There’s a good chance that receptions are less taxing on the body than rushes.
Also, only Holmes reached a higher peak than Tiki, and his FOTC-moment came because of injury, at least in part. It could be that Tiki is skilled enough to maintain near-peak performance longer than almost any other RB, provided he stays healthy. Maybe, hopefully.
Nonetheless, history isn’t comforting to me. By the start of next season, Tiki will be 31 and have about 2,500 touches. That’s a decent number of touches, but even if it’s only carries that should be considered, the list above would suggest that age is more important than mileage.
Howie Long says it’s time for Dallas to start looking for a new QB.
Is that so? They could…
-
Keep Bledsoe and give him a strong O-Line
-
Dump Bledsoe and get a QB who can work under this O-Line
-
Dump Bledsoe and the O-Line
Thoughts?
Varlos & Ellis, interesting discussion on Tiki. I’m not sure I have a strong opinion on the realistic outcome, but I think it needs to be mentioned that historical comparisons are a sketchy proposition when discussing longevity. Medicine and off-season training regimens have advanced so much in recent years, even since the early nineties with Thurman and Emmitt, that we really don’t have a good indication of what to expect from RBs these days. ACLs, Achillies, broken ankles and other injuries used to be career enders or at least career shorteners. We’re not even sure that Steven Davis, Priest Holmes and Jamal Lewis are really done.
Me too. I’ve got no prediction on who will win, but there’s gonna be a lot of serious hitting going on at FedEx next weekend. This is a very good Giants team, but I think the Redskins will be ready to make a contest of this game.
Can’t have everything. I’m rather happy with that, though. If the Falcons, Cowboys, and Vikes can each lose one more game, the 'Skins could sneak in to the playoffs at 9-7. And the Falcons and 'Boys both have tough road games next week.
That’s a fair point, and reminds me of a discussion I had with my buddy the Bills fan a couple weeks back.
I mentioned to him that I didn’t want the Jets to go for Reggie Bush (or Leinart) like the Giants went for Eli, because just like I started hearing whispers about Leinart having some downsides, I had started hearing whispers about Reggie Bush having some downsides. One of which is that he will be too much like Gale Sayers, who ran so buckwild that he only had a four or five year career.
A couple days later I was talking to the same friend and he said, “By the way, you know that injury Gale Sayers had? Nowadays that’s a four week injury.”
I’m not sure how much in our conversation was accurate, but it sure it amazing how far sports medicine has advanced.
Regarding the Tiki discussion, yeah, he does have a crapload of touches. While catches may or may not be less taxing than carries, it’s not like they help your longevity either way.
One thing I did find interesting was how remarkably similar all those guys were in getting to around 2500 carries and then falling apart. The tight grouping around that number struck me as spooky.
Bold picks of the week:
Dallas @ Car (where the Cowboys’ playoff hopes disappear)
NYG @ Wash
Phil @ Arz