Alternate American Revolution

Great Debates
1

Most alternate histories of the American Revolution that I’ve seen have gone in the direction of partial or total defeat for the USA. I’ve been thinking about the other direction. While things broke pretty well for the Americans, there were a few missed opportunities for the Allies, which could have pushed the tide even further in their direction:

  1. In Canada they couldn’t quite pull off a siege of Quebec, and storming the city proved disastrous.

  2. They were unable to send support to would-be rebels in Acadia/New Brunswick and quickly lost any opportunities they had there.

  3. The French decisively lost the Battle of the Saints in 1782 (IIRC), which prevented an easy invasion of Jamaica. A Franco-Spanish siege of Gibraltar also failed, and an invasion of England never quite got its act together.

So, imagine a timeline where at least some of these occur. When the peace negotiations get undeway, the French hold Jamaica, the Spanish and French have captured Gibraltar, Yorktown has happened, the Spanish have captured British posts all along the Gulf of Mexico (as in real life). The Allies are in much stronger position than in reality.

But we know the French and Spanish were more than willing to sell out the USA, and their real-life position was that the US should be hemmed in at the Mississippi. So having a stronger French/Spanish bargaining position doesn’t necessarily help the Americans.

So, what happens next? Do the British swap Canada back to France to regain Jamaica (assuming they still have it)? Does such a decisive victory save the French monarchy? Does a US-UK rapproachment occur more rapidly in the face of the resurgent French, or more slowly since the British defeat is more bitter? Does the Spanish-American war occur around 1800 to gain access to the Mississippi?

2

It’s an interesting hypothesis. What do you think? (I got nothing right now, but this need a bump.)

3

Well, I’m not as well-versed in French history as I might be, but I’m under the impression that any scenario that has the war lasting as long as it did in real life presents real problems for the French treasury, so the events leading up to the French Revolution still go ahead.

The British end up basically kicked out of the Western Hemisphere, plus or minus. In real life they gave up Florida and were willing to give up Ontario until the naval war turned their fortunes around a bit. Losing Jamaica would be really bad for them-- I don’t know what they’d be able to swap to get it back, especially if they’d lost Gibraltar. IIRC, the French had assured the Americans they didn’t want Quebec back, but the UK might be willing to give it and/or Nova Scotia back in exchange for Jamaica.

There’s all sorts of random Indian possessions that I assume wouldn’t be involved, but I guess I don’t really know.

So the peace treaty ends with Britain keeping Barbados, Bermuda, getting Jamaica back, and maybe holding a few others. The US is blocked from the Mississippi by Spain (though they aren’t happy about it), but gains Ontario. The French get Quebec. I’ll fudge the Maritimes-- they could go to the US or France (or be kept by the UK?). Spain gains Gibraltar and Florida (and Minorca, as in real life).

The Loyalists go to-- Bermuda? The Bahamas?

Tensions between the US and Spain are constant. The French Revolution provides an opportunity for Quebec to declare its independence, though I don’t know that they would. It also provides a place for Napoleon to be exiled, though that may be too fanciful.

No War of 1812, at least not against the UK. More likely we end up in open war against the Spanish. Not clear that the Louisiana Purchase can occur in this scenario, either-- too much depends on what happens in Europe.

And of course, looking ahead 150 years, losing Gibraltar has profound effects on whatever the 20th century becomes for the UK.

4

South Africa, and you ain’t heard the last of 'em, rebel pigs!

5

I don’t see why this would work. France had given up Canada after the Seven Years’ War in order to keep Guadeloupe; this sugar-producing tropical colony had become much more important to France than Canada where the principal economic activity was the fur trade, and which they couldn’t really adequately defend. I’m sure that France would have also preferred Jamaica to Canada.

6

Fair enough. I suppose I was imagining it from the British point of view, where they’d be willing to go to great lengths to get Jamaica back rather than be left with a relatively unpopulated, French-speaking, Catholic province. But that doesn’t guarantee the French will be willing to give Jamaica back for it. If the British keep Quebec, maybe the US purchases it later? I don’t see that it’s doing the British much good unless they keep the Maritimes, too, I guess.

7

:smiley:

I finally caught up on this the other week. Apart from massacring chess notation, Stirling runs with this notion quite agreeably (in a uniquely horrifying kind of way).

8

Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the 1780s wasn’t there a dispute between the colonies/states concerning a potential treaty with Spain, where a group of northern states wished to give up essentialy all control of the Mississippi to Spain? Which was vehemently opposed by Virginia and others.

Of course, Spain soon ceded much of that terr. to France.

But a US limited to the east of the Miss. would have been quite different.

9

The Yazoo Strip? (Insert Upstairs at Eric’s jokes here)
In theory, disagreements over the boundaries of Florida led to disagreement over the US-Spanish border in that area.

According to Alden, Spain wanted the US-Spanish border to run due south from the western end of Lake Erie, then were willing to “compromise” by letting Britain keep the area between the Ohio and the Great Lakes and making the rest of the area a Spanish-run Indian reservation.

Meanwhile, the starting negotiating position for the US was that they’d get all of Canada.

If Spain rams through the boundaries above, I don’t see how there isn’t a Spanish-US war in the late 1700s/early 1800s, or maybe a purchase. And if the French Revolution/Napoleonic Wars happen in Europe, I don’t see how Spain can win.