She’s tough and competent, but I don’t think she has likability or the personal charisma necessary (even among Democrats and moderates) to carry the majority of the electorate unless the Republicans are foolish enough to run a polarizing loon.
If other Democratic contenders step aside and make her the default candidate because it’s her “turn” they will making the same mistake the Republicans did with Bob Dole. If it was her vs a slimmed down Christie I think he would beat her hands down, and I am not a fan of Republican policies.
That’s not a demographic issue though, Democrats win in Colorado because they simply persuade better than Republicans do. That’s how you win elections, you don’t just count noses based on skin color and assume support or opposition.
Although I think Hickenlooper is hurting the Democratic brand there. He’s a good governor, but between gun control and a huge tax increase he’s pushing, I think it’s going to be overreach for what is a purple state.
Again, Christie will have to pass the extreme conservative gauntlet in the primaries, I still see a planned reduction on his polling advantage once he has to burn any moderate positions that he could use later in the presidential contest.
Christie doesn’t have to do any such thing if he’s the only moderate facing a bunch of Tea Partiers dividing the right-wing vote. And I see no other viable moderates thinking of running unless Giuliani finally stops being a tease.
Because historically, black turnout rates are lower. Obama caused a rise in black turnout rates. He also increased youth turnout rates in 2008.
Will Hillary Clinton draw the same way? I don’t think she needs to, personally, she’ll do better among women than any candidate in history I’d expect. But the fact that women go 65-35 for her or something like that isn’t going to mean that Democrats will then have a permanent 30 point advantage. Different candidates produce different coalitions.
As for Hispanic and Asian turnout rates, those groups aren’t monolithic so I don’t worry about them. Republicans can win both those demographics, or at least stay close enough to let their overwhelming advantage among white voters to give them the win.
Not if the inaction in immigration reform continues in the house. You want to ignore it so hard, but as I pointed many times before this issue will not be forgotten by people like me, and come elections time we will work to make sure others also do not forget.
The public is not with you on this one. Even if Hispanics vote as a bloc, it won’t be enough to overcome a motivated voting public, and this is the one issue that can move African-Americans out of the Democratic camp.
Hispanic voters are all by their lonesome on this issue.
So much for the “public not with this one”, so the Republicans “will pass one that the public will like”, like if others would not see those points as being as consistent as baby poop.
The public doesn’t want the immigration reform the Senate has pushed, anymore than the public wanted it in 2007. The townhalls are going to have Senate bill supporters running away from this thing with their tails between their legs.
red state Senate Democrats doomed themselves by voting for that bill.
Lots of hate for the immigration bill here. The locals are Drunk On Tea ™, and have forgotten the words “reasonable” and “compromise”, and all that dirty Commie stuff. :rolleyes:
On Hilary. I can’t support her. She really doesn’t seem to be up for the job.
Maybe there’s a Kennedy out there, in the weeds, someplace.
If not, Biden I suppose.
The only Republican I’d even consider voting for is Christie
I don’t see how one could think that Hillary is not “up for the job”. She has shown the ability to throw her heart and soul into the job, as she did as Secretary of State and as Senator. The only concern I have about Hillary would be that she would burn herself out before her terms were finished.
I’m not worried about the immigration bill not being popular in Tennessee. If Democrats have to mold policy to suit Tennesseeans, than we might as well not be Democrats.
Let’s not delude ouirselves into thinking that Christie has any prayer of winning the nomination. He has way too much room on his right and being the leftmost Republican is not the formula for getting nominated.
I understand that, and agree (although the increase in black turnout actually started in 2000 and has risen steadily since, peaking in 2012).
But I think there is a step you are taking for granted, and that is that the turnout will decrease when Obama is no longer on the ticket. It is just as likely, I think, that it will maintain. It’s not like black turnout has suddenly spiked to 80%+. It’s merely caught up to where white turnout has always been (maybe 2% higher in 2012). All of those people that have now voted in two straight presidential elections will now just sit out? I guess I need more than a hunch to buy that.
It’s also worth noting that these new voters didn’t just wake up and decide “hey, a black presidential candidate! I’m gonna go vote!”. They were targeted, registered, motivated, and driven to the polls. There is more to winning elections that just candidates and policies.
I agree that a woman top-of-the-ticket candidate will really shake up the race in ways that I think many pundits (who tend to be male) aren’t really grasping.
This is exactly what they (the GOP) needs to do. Stop pissing off Hispanics and Asians, who are very turned off by needlessly divisive rhetoric. I’m in contact with many Indian-Americans, a generally very GOP-friendly demographic, who are downright repulsed by large swaths of GOP elected officials. And that’s not even mentioning what the War On Terror has done to Muslim voting patterns.
You believe that the GOP will pass an immigration bill that the public will like. I kind of doubt it at this point. The GOP House lives in far more fear of an attack from the right than one from the center.
