[QUOTE=RickJay]
Every year this happens, and every year we have threads about American Idol in which people say they voted 100 times for someone who WASN’T the best singer but they thought they needed the help, and that very week some good singer is booted or close to booted, and it’s pointed out “Well, if people would just vote, every single time they vote, with every single vote, for the person they thought WAS THE BEST, that would not happen.” And then the next year it happens again. “I can’t believe Greg Greatvoice was kicked off instead of Seamus Shittysinger! Who did I vote for? Oh, I voted for Martha Mediocre, I figured Greg was safe and Martha needed the votes.”
THAT is why shitty singers sometimes last a little longer than they should.
[/QUOTE]
This is how I see it:
– You’re generally going to have the right Final 4. I say “generally” because many people felt Constantine should have lasted at least that long in S4, and many others felt that Jasmine did not belong there in S3. But the F4 generally consists of people who deserve to have gotten that far. I don’t think that will include Sanjaya.
– Now, people are not always happy with the configuration of the F4. Last season had one of, if not the, best F4s. Chris Daughtry, who has become the real star of that season; Katharine McPhee, who may have had the most pure votes (more on that later) of any contestant ever; Elliott Yamin, who had fought his way past people who’d seemed to outclass him at first, but did not have his staying power; and Taylor Hicks, who was an unstoppable fan favorite (at least on the show). So why did Daughtry, who seemed to have a lock on F2, get voted off? He deserved a chance to win, right? I don’t know how that happened, and the theories are too complex to get into, but my point is, once the field gets that narrow, that’s when you start talking about “deserve.” That’s the level of the real contenders. Again, I don’t think Sanjaya will get that far.
– So about those pure votes. Contestants in the later rounds, or contestants who last longer than their performances seem to warrant, usually do so with the support of viewers who will vote for them no matter what. They’re from the south, or from someplace where people really want to support one of their own, or they have devoted fangirls, or they represent some other demographic, like Carrie with her entire sorority voting for her. (Not that she wouldn’t have done well anyway, but every chapter? That’s a lot of votes.) Katherine had none of those advantages (her finale-night hometown party on the Universal CitiWalk was…pretty big, if you count all the people who just happened to be on the CitiWalk that night, minus the 20 or so people who planned to be there.), but she got to Final 2 anyway. People must have liked her a lot, for no altruistic reason, and that’s a lot to be proud of.
– And that’s why I see Sanjaya getting as far as sixth, perhaps even fifth, because he doesn’t need pure votes for that. I know he has devoted fangirls voting for him, I suspect many Indian-Americans are voting, and I hear that Hawai’ians are taking advantage of their time zone, just as they did with Jasmine. And I strongly suspect that many of these people are voting for the entire two hours. So he’s going to be unstoppable for a long time.
Right now, he could easily blow past any combination of Phil, Gina, Haley, and the two Chris’s. The only people who are safe from him are Melinda, LaKisha, Blake and Jordin. Those four are talented and popular, so they would be the right Final 4. But Chris S’s fanbase has deflated on him, so he’s on borrowed time, and I don’t think Phil has the military vote, or much of a fanbase either. Gina, Haley and Chris R. seem to be building credibility, so any one of them could theoretically get to sixth or fifth place, if Sanjaya’s combined fanbases were not blocking them. As it is, though, I think anyone who’s vulnerable to my projected F4, is also vulnerable to Sanjaya. He can’t get past them, but he’ll come darned close.
– So why vote for someone who you don’t think is going to win? Because below F4, there’s a sense that it doesn’t matter as much; you just want your favorite to come back another week. I can’t say I’m down with voting for someone you think “needs” it, if you really thought they sucked, but if you just happen to like a particular contestant for your own reasons, then you’re not obligated to vote for the best. Who decides who’s the “best,” anyway? It’s really a war of attrition. And it is a popularity contest, regardless of what Simon says.