Presidential Candidate Colin Powell would be a walking, breathing target for every rednecked racist nutball in the 48 contiguous United States – and probably more than few from abroad. Campaigning in the South would be a real stress-inducer… 
What is that, some kind of porno race?
Read the thread title.
Immediately thought, “President Clinton, of course.”
Then thought, “No, that would be ‘most often’ rather than ‘first’.”
Carry on.
Especially the Pakistanis. They’d never deal with a female head of state! 
The ‘threat’ quotient of a black man depends on the man. I doubt it would be a factor in Powell’s case.
If he were to replace Cheney on the GOP ticket in 2004, that would make a second term for Bush more certain: the Dems would still get a substantial majority of black votes, but probably more like 65-70% than the 90% they’re used to getting.
And if Powell is VP from 2005-2009, he’s the early favorite in 2008 if he chooses to run.
(BTW, I don’t think he’d have problems campaigning in the South - both because they like military types down there, and because, while he comes across as strong, he doesn’t do so in a threatening sort of way.)
But when you get down to it:
Which group finds one of their number in the White House first depends so much on circumstance, and on the individuals involved. Were it not for a screwy ballot in Palm Beach County, I’d be saying that the best bet is for a Jew to be first, since Leiberman would be veep.
If Powell isn’t interested in being President, who knows who’s got the inside track? We don’t know now who’ll be running in 2008, just the way few people would’ve predicted in 1993 that Dubya would be the GOP nominee in 2000.
But I do have one minor prediction on the subject:
I think that at a black or Jewish male - one or the other - will be President before a woman is. With the possible exception of Hillary, no American woman has managed to attain the sort of national stature that a person generally needs to make a run for the White House. (Or, as Dubya showed, a pile of major contributors will do.) And since I don’t think it’s gonna be Hillary, I really don’t think it’s going to be any woman for awhile, until a woman commands that sort of national respect without the intense opposition that Hillary arouses.
And an openly gay person will probably be last of all.
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*Originally posted by RTFirefly *
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Slight correction: national stature and recognition can come very quickly. Over, truthfully, hear of Bill CLinton before 1991? (Unless you’re from Arkansas.)
The main problem with Powell is that he has previously said that he would refuse the nomination. Perhaps he will change his mind after Bush finishes his tenure, but I would not bet on it. Powell cares too much about his family to subject them to the hell of a Presidential campaign. Condoleeza Rice would be a potential candidate, but in general people don’t care to vote for “spooks”.
I don’t think a woman would make foreign relations all that more difficult. Maggie Thatcher seems to have managed well enough. Screw the women-hating assholes in the Middle East: they don’t elect our President anyway.
In any case, I suspect we’ll get a woman before we get a black man.
A lot depends on how the War on Terror pans out. Bush’s popularity right now won’t still be with him in 2004 (historically, the public only has a memory of about 8 months, and the election is still 36 months away). If Bush really screws up the remainder of his term, there’s still a good chance for the Democrats to recapture the White House. Especially if the grotesque abuse of the Constitution that we’ve just seen committed comes back to bite him.
Jaysus H. Christmas! Now I’ve heard everything. Was Washington gay, too? I hear he liked to put wood in his mouth.
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*Originally posted by JosephFinn *
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I do believe you have too many credit lines there.
Mods! Clean-up on asile 3!
Someone should remind the American people that England was always at her best under Queens. Elizabeth I, Victoria? etc etc.
I believe Powell honestly does not want the Presidency. If he did, he almost certainly would have gotten at least the nomination in any of the last three elections.
Won’t Powell probably be too old to run in 7 years anyway? I know Reagan and Dole ran in their seventies, but geez.
Anyway, I predict a black male will be the first of the group. Probably a Republican (sorta a “only Nixon could go to China” thing) After all, Allen Keys is the darling of the conservatives. J.C. Watts will probably be a contender too soon enough. I seriously doubt a black women would be electable for a long while. A Jew is probably electable now. A women is likely unelectable, unless she is really hot of course !!!
An openly gay person is probably unelectable for the next 200 years or so
Alan Keyes has always been a fringe candidate for the GOP. He’s a great orator, but is not very electable. Colin Powell is a more viable candidate, if he’s ever interested.
There, we’ve fixed the attribution.
I’ve never lived within 500 miles of Arkansas, but I’d heard of Bill Clinton since he first won the Ark. governorship. Even then, the pundits and the weekly newsmagazines were pushing his name as a future Presidential prospect. He gave one of the featured Democratic convention speeches in either 1984 or '88 - the latter, I think. You can argue about how much stature he had, but he didn’t come out of nowhere, Jimmy Carter-style.
And for the first woman to gain the presidency, it will take more advance cred than for a male candidate. It’s wrong that it should be that way, but that’s the way it is, as I see it.
[sub]And Alan Keyes’ passionate speech in favor of totalitarianism (“You cannot have the right to do what is wrong!!”) at the 1992 GOP Convention will be a serious millstone to any national aspirations he harbors, if any. [/sub]
I think RTF was right, it depends more on the individual. I’d think normally a Jew before a black man, and possibly a woman before either, but not in the case of Powell, who I think could have it if he wanted. I don’t understand, however, how he could say no to either of the 2 top slots, it’s too much, then takes SecState, arguably bigger than the VP. His military record would lessen the stigma down South, I think. I think a woman VP may be close. The GOP may do it first to try to get women voters. The Dems get women - their trouble is men.
I don't see Watts as a VP for Bush. they usually try to get geographic diversity too, and TX-OK are too close.
The gay will likely be last.
I don’t think any female in Sammy Davis’ family is gay.
**RTFirefly ** has long beaten me to the punch regarding Benazir Bhuto.
There is also the current example of Megawati Sukarnoputri who leads the world’s largest Islamic nation.
Perhaps to extend the OP, and we took the premise that Powell could be the next President, if he wanted it. However, if he was to select an equally competent, decent and worldly running mate who happened also to be a black male, would that not totally wreck his chances?
[sub] … and to declare interests, Australia has never had a female or black Prime Minister or Governor General. We have had Jews and gays (though not openly). I think the odds of our next Governor General (or if we get our act together, our first President) being an Aboriginal, probably a women is a laydown misere. 'twould be good. [/sub]
I believe that Sri Lanka and Bangladesh currently have female PMs also.
Wooly - we’ve had gay PMs? how so?
And just as a note - sounds like that Buchanan guy was definitely gay. So that kinda disqualifies one of the four catagories!
I thought that if Cheney doesn’t seek re-election along with W., then Condi Rice, as NSA, would take the nod. Thus assuring that we move one step closer to Tom Clancy’s Universe.
I like the thought of Ford (D-Congressman from Tenn., right?) as an up and comer. He seems to be a really moderate fellow from the limited exposure I have had to him. The fact that he himself is a Southerner (and sadly because he is light skinned, much like Powell) will overcome some of his biggest obstacles.
I think we will have our first Pres that fits one of those categories when a VP suceeds the Pres because of death, resignation or the unthinkable. Then they have the edge to be elected in their own right.
[sub]Notice: My comment about it being Sad that Ford was light skin did not reflect my opinion that such coloration is bad. Instead, I was pointing out that it is sad that such color would be a factor in anyone’s mind[/sub]
Chris Rock talked about this in his early stand-up, saying that we would never have a black vice-president, because the president would then have a week to live. Then the assassin would either be pardoned by the black president, or be a celebrity in jail.
- Female president
- Jewish president
- black president
- gay president
In that order.
Why? We’ve already had a female VP run for office, so the barrier has been (tentatively) broken, plus, even though she flopped, Libby Dole was considered at one point a serious contender. With people like Madeline Albright as a successful Secretary of State, the road has started to be paved (and note she came before Colin Powell). Jewish second because, as with the female president, both will be white, and I think both these things would need to happen before the country were ready for a black president. Sadly, I, too, think a gay president would be last. We have lots of other, bigger, older prejudices in this country to get over first… 
Just my opinion.
Esprix