An actuary speaks...

Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports
1

Dex - you missed the accident hump in your reply!How could you?

You see folks, the force of mortality (i.e. the instantaneous equivalent of the annual rate) starts high at birth and reduces to about age 11 or 12, as Dex said. And from about age 25 onwards it steadily rises (in a kind of log-linear fashion), again as Dex said.

But between the ages of about 13 and 24 there is a distinct “hump” in the mortality rate. It peaks at about age 20.

For many years this feature was assumed to be random error in the data. But then some bright spark noticed that teenagers actually are a bit more blasé in their attitudes to risk than other groups. Investigation was done and the “accident hump”, as it is now called, was found not to be data error at all - it actually represents the distinct increased risk that teenagers face of being killed from their own stupidity.

You may also be interested to know that the force of mortality is higher for males than females at all ages. Females also have an acccident hump, but it is far less pronounced than males.

Lowest force of mortality is at about age 10 though, as the man said.

pan

2

Fair enough comment, kabbes. I’ll give some consideration to drafting up a paragraph to add to the Report.

There’s lots of other interesting bits that I didn’t bother to put in as well, such as the spread of mortality through the year. That is, you would expect that mortality is pretty evenly spread through a person’s age year – there would be no particular reason for deaths at age 45-1/12 and 1 month is different than deaths at age 45-3/12. However, in fact, there is a higher mortality rate in the month immediately following an major birthday. That is, there is higher mortality rates in the month AFTER a 90th birthday than in the month BEFORE a 90th birthday. This is interpreted as people “hanging on” to reach a milestone birthday, and then not caring and “giving up.”

I thought I had made the comment about male/female mortality, but I see that I didn’t, I took it for granted that everyone knew that. Sigh. Thanks.

3

Ah, the actuary’s curse. Assumptions.

You must remember dex - the rest of the world operate on a lower level. They are not privy to the Arcane and Forbidden Knowledge. We must eductate them wisely and well. :wink:

pan

4

I was under the impression that the “birthday effect” (which can also apply to other critical dates) worked the other way around with women.

5

[sub]My husband, the CPA, likes to tell this joke. Which tells you a lot about humor and CPAs.[/sub]
Q: What is the definition of an actuary?

A: An actuary is an accountant, without the personality.
heh

6

Why does a (male) actuary always use the end urinal?

It reduces by 50% the chance that someone will pee on this leg.

Another actuary claimed that there’s only a 33% reduction, because there’s still a chance that he’ll pee on his own leg. :slight_smile:

7

Now why would he assume that he’s as likely to pee on his own leg as anyone else is? :wink:

8

No, no, no. An actuary is someone who likes you to be dead on time.

pan

9

Pfaugh!

An actuary is where they bury dead actors.

10

The decision to use the end urinal would not of course be such an easy call for an actuary. There is always the risk that HE would wet the guy next door and be liable for the cleaning costs, however if the wall covering in the room was expensive the guys pants may be the best risk. All in all, it would have to be a dynamic call based on the situation. Genuinely an “on the fly” decision