An example of what can go wrong when restrictions are lifted

In Apopka, FLA last weekend there was a small pop culture/fannish event. This link shows how they handled sanitation, social distancing and the wearing of face masks, or rather how they didn’t handle them. The article is well written, but I think the pictures alone tell us what we need to know about the wisdom of self regulation in a time of crisis…and it might give us an idea of what to expect, on a much more ginormous scale, when Dragon Con takes place at the beginning of September in Atlanta, Georgia. That small expo was a couple of hundred people for one day-Dragon Con is between 60 to 80 thousand people for five days. Tens of thousands of people from all over the world gathering together for five days, then dispersing back into the world. It makes the proposed Trump rally pale in comparison.
What could possibly go wrong?

And you believe, during these times, 60-80 Thousand people are still going to attend?

If only 1/4 of last year’s attendance show up, that is still 20 thousand people in one area for five days. My link showed you how well the general public heeds safety warnings, and Dragon Con is an extremely popular event.

We need these super spreader outbreak events. Virus is spreading too slow right now. The sooner it runs through the population the better as long as we don’t get overwhelmed.

My folks always host AirBnB folks during Dragon Con. Yet another thing for me to worry about.

That seems wrong. If 80% of the populace never gets the disease, that’s great news. New Zealand is the goal, not Italy.

And you’ve calculated the exact size of super spreader to accomplish that? Look, I’m not part of the “we can beat this” or “lockdown til vaccine” crowd but we can’t be stupid about how we allow any spread. And random thousands of people at a convention ain’t smart.

Assuming people pay to get in, DragonCon can just not sell more tickets than they can handle safely. The venue has restrictions also. I hope they can get out of any contracts they have that assume more people. And good luck with getting those who do attend to wear masks and social distance.
Cancelling is so much easier.

Someone on this board predicted 3 weeks ago that we would be in trouble now and the numbers continue to go down. what are your predictions?

Well, I think so, and you think so, but Bloomberg apparently agrees with HoneyBadgerDC:‘Superspreaders’ Could Actually Make Covid-19 Easier to Control. OTOH I read the article last week and I’m still not entirely sure what’s being advocated.

I predict that if you panic and leave a plane before it lands bad shit is going to happen.

The spread is inevitable at this point: take a deep breath, sit back, and enjoy the ride.

Even if you lose your brakes, it’s still probably a good idea to use the steering wheel.

if you ride a greased pig in the rain you’ll probably get wet.

But I was going for something more related to the virus and future expectations. If you think the numbers will rise than what kind of increase are you estimating?

It all depends on how stupid people get…but it doesn’t matter how stupid they get because these are people I have worked with, partied with, drank with, yelled at and planned with for the last 40 years or so. I give a shit if they live or die, but even I never knew or associated with them I would still give a shit if they live or die because they are human beings.
Pool, I hope I never lose enough self respect to “sit back, take a deep breath, and enjoy the ride” when it comes to the deaths of millions, thousands, hundreds, tens or even one human being.

That reminds me of advice Bobby Knight once gave to women concerning rape:

Numbers are going down in some places. In other places they are going up.

“Coincidentally” they’re going up fastest in the places that have “opened up” first and are doing the least to encourage public safety with social distancing, face masks, and size of gatherings.

Yup. Here in La Crosse County, Wisconsin, people (and businesses) were, generally, really careful, through April and most of May. The number of cases remained low (remarkably low, in my opinion).

Toward the end of May, just by walking around and observing, it was obvious that older folks were continuing to be careful, but younger folks were not

Bam! First two weeks in June, a big jump in cases — mainly among 20-somethings. (We’re an obvious red stain on the US map in the New York Times from three days ago). Not only will this cause at least a few serious illnesses and deaths (maybe more than a few), it is imperiling ALL the sacrifices we have made, and could impact critical things like my child’s grade-school education.

My wife and I are livid.

I think you’re misinterpreting Bloomberg - the article is saying that if it turns out that most of the spread of Covid is due to “superspreaders” then targeted restrictions (focused on stopping the superspreaders) will be very effective, and other restrictions will be less necessary. It’s not saying that we should encourage superspreading.

I honestly believe that our outlook is going to be worse that Italy, possibly a lot worse.