An observation about the phrase "X is going to be the next big thing"

I have learned that when something gets spoken about in terms of “it’s going to be the next big thing”, it almost certainly will not be.

Big things just happen before you have time to notice they’re about to happen.

I don’t recall anyone ever saying “Facebook is going to be the next big thing” or “YouTube is going to be the next big thing”. By the time we’d heard about them, they were already big things.

Things that get talked about being “the next big thing”, seem to not actually become “big things” at all.

And that’s my observation on the phrase “X is going to be the next big thing”.

I did. Facebook was “private” (only college and high school kids could join) for about two years after MySpace became the big thing. I was constantly hearing how “As soon as Facebook opens up to the public, it’ll crush MySpace”. And it did, almost instantly.

I was in the music biz when I heard “U2 is the next BIG thing”. That one was correct.

To find the next big thing, look for something that has not yet taken off, but that people are already talking smack about. A good idea can be kept down by pooh-poohing more effectively than by anything else.

Of course, then you need to evaluate the thing on its own terms. Is it a neat thing? a fun thing? creative? potentially useful? intellectually stimulating? daringly different? If so, why is it being smack-talked? Is it because any of the foregoing apply to it?