And if every country just said, "Taiwan is a sovereign nation..."?

[gitfiddle]

Yes, another Taiwan debate.

As I’m trying to wade through all of the historical material over China’s historical claims to Taiwan, one question comes to mind.

The history is so muddled, and I don’t get the impression that either side has a clear, undebatable argument. It seems to me right now that the whole issue is plagued by ambiguity and contradiction.

That’s the history though. What I keep asking myself is what about right now? There is no way to deny that the two countries are separate. They each have their own currency, government, laws, etc. The DPP is looking to rewrite the constitution, thusly renouncing the KMTs old, outdated claims that the ROC includes China and Mongolia.

So, if the entire world were to simply say, Taiwan does not belong to China. That’s it. What would happen?

The first answer that comes to mind is, China would attack. Yet, wouldn’t they be doing so under a much less solid premise than if they were to attack Taiwan right now? Sure, you may say that doesn’t matter, and it may not.

But, if China didn’t attack, what would happen? Isn’t it safe to say that nothing would happen? China would be China, Taiwan would be Taiwan – as they are right now, but they would both simply be recognized by the whole world as such, separate. Taiwan would continue to invest in China. Travel barriers may be opened. Trade may even increase.

I get the impression right now that China is in the driver’s seat. They are the ones who get to define the “status quo” because they are the ones threatening attack, and the whole world gives them credibility by acquiescing to the “One China” myth, even though I doubt anyone actually believes in it.

[Little_Nemo]

I think you’d want to get Taiwan on board with this plan first. They’re the ones that would be taking the biggest risk. (And they haven’t technically renounced claims to all of China yet - there’s no point in recognizing Taiwan as a separate nation until they declare themselves so.)

The next big issue is China’s reaction. Beijing has said all along that it would regard a Taiwanese declaration of independence as a casus belli. They might let it go at the last moment but I think the possibility of a Chinese invasion needs to be considered as likely. And I think it’s grossly irresponsible for other countries to encourage Taiwan to do something that would lead it into a war unless they’re prepared to support Taiwan in that war.

So the question is: Are you willing to go to war for Taiwanese independence?

[Polycarp]

We hit precisely the issue that Little Nemo outlines back in 1958.

‘Taiwan’ as a governmental entity is a construct of Western writers trying to be objective. The island of Taiwan, plus three smaller coastal islands and a bunch of small chains of islets, comprise the free territory of the Republic of China. And yeah, they have only slightly more chance of reconquering the mainland than that clown who claims to be the Jacobite pretender does of taking the English throne. But it needs to be stressed that they regard themselves as the true surviving and only legitimate government of China. (I mentioned in passing in a GQ thread some months back that those coastal islands are important to them* because they comprise a small part of a second province, other than Taiwan, i.e., Kwangtung, that belongs to the ROC.*

[Whack-a-Mole]

@gitfiddle

The first answer that comes to mind is, China would attack. Yet, wouldn’t they be doing so under a much less solid premise than if they were to attack Taiwan right now?

First off China has no chance of successfully invading Taiwan. As big as their military is they have nowhere near the sealift capacity needed to pull off an invasion. Not to mention I think the Taiwan Relations Act which commits the US to protect Taiwan should China invade is still in effect (I might be wrong on that though…certainly China invading carries a very real risk of the US defending them though).

About all China could manage would be to bomb Taiwan back into the stone age but I think the Chinese would like Taiwan intact rather than a bombed out shell.

Mostly I think China just wants to keep its options open so they keep up the rhetoric. But seriously…how long does the status quo have to be the status quo before people give up on old claims? Taiwan is most assuredly a sovereign nation in every way that is meaningful. Countries all over the world could rummage through history to find some claim to something or other but using that as an excuse for attacking is meager to say the least. China going after Taiwan today would really be nothing more than an overt land grab and I never fail to be amazed that they think dressing it in some 50+ year old claim makes it look any differently.

[Little_Nemo]

And yeah, they have only slightly more chance of reconquering the mainland than that clown who claims to be the Jacobite pretender does of taking the English throne.

Overall, I’d agree with this. But twenty years ago, people would have given the same answer if you had asked them what are the chances of Poland joining NATO within the next twenty years. So who knows? In 2025, President Ma Ying-jeou might be running the Republic of China from an office in Beijing.

[China_Guy]

one factor the OP ignores is rightly or wrongly the PRC fears setting a precident. renouncing claims to Taiwan is a slippery slope to renouncing the spratley’s, nautuna oil fields, the diaoyutai islands, much less manchuria, mongolia, tibet, the zhuang, xinjiang. potentially the East coast, etc.

this is a big issue for china and has to be addressed internally by china before accepting taiwan independence.

[Mosier]

China actually has the ability to ENFORCE its sovreignty over those areas, though.

It has no such ability to do so over Taiwan. Insisting that China has a legitimate claim over Taiwan is like insisting the Navajo have a legitimate claim over Arizona. Who cares if the claim is legitimate, if it’s completely ignored and they don’t have the power to enforce it?

[Acsenray]

@Polycarp

they have only slightly more chance of reconquering the mainland than that clown who claims to be the Jacobite pretender does of taking the English throne.

Hijack: I was under the impression that the current pretender has never actually claimed any right to the throne.

[Acsenray]

@China Guy

one factor the OP ignores is rightly or wrongly the PRC fears setting a precident. renouncing claims to Taiwan is a slippery slope to renouncing the spratley’s, nautuna oil fields, the diaoyutai islands, much less manchuria, mongolia, tibet, the zhuang, xinjiang. potentially the East coast, etc.

… the Aksai Chin (Kashmir), parts of Arunachal Pradesh …

[Polycarp]

By “that clown” I did not mean the Wittelsbach (Bavarian) pretender whose claim is, uh, legitimate-by-Jacobite-standards, but the nutball who claims to be “Duke of Albany” and has been mentioned in various threads here lately.

And I called the wrong province for Quemoy and Matsu (and neighboring islands) – they’re offf the shore of, and juridically part of, Fukien Province. (Taiwan itself is off the coast of Kwangtung, though of course a separate province; I tend to forget that Q & M are further north.)

[Malodorous]

@Whack-a-Mole

First off China has no chance of successfully invading Taiwan. As big as their military is they have nowhere near the sealift capacity needed to pull off an invasion. Not to mention I think the Taiwan Relations Act which commits the US to protect Taiwan should China invade is still in effect (I might be wrong on that though…certainly China invading carries a very real risk of the US defending them though).

The Taiwan Relations Act didn’t commit the US to defending Taiwan, just to help arm it and: “(c) The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger.”

[gitfiddle]

I think you’d want to get Taiwan on board with this plan first. They’re the ones that would be taking the biggest risk. (And they haven’t technically renounced claims to all of China yet - there’s no point in recognizing Taiwan as a separate nation until they declare themselves so.)

“They” by and large seem to favor independence. About declaring itself a separate nation, there’s this:

The resolution, which passed 250-73, could rile China, which has repeatedly threatened war if Taiwan formalizes its de facto independence.

“We should rectify our name to Taiwan and enact a new constitution as soon as possible,” the resolution says. “A public referendum should be held at an appropriate time to underscore Taiwan as a sovereign state.”

Even Ma (whom people on the StraightDope always seem so sure is going to win), recently said something along the lines of “The ROC is Taiwan.” Meaning, I think, that even the KMT no longer believes that the ROC is anything more than the island of Taiwan.

Sure, it’s not written in the constitution, but it seems like the mechanizations are in place.

one factor the OP ignores is rightly or wrongly the PRC fears setting a precident. renouncing claims to Taiwan is a slippery slope to renouncing the spratley’s, nautuna oil fields, the diaoyutai islands, much less manchuria, mongolia, tibet, the zhuang, xinjiang. potentially the East coast, etc.

this is a big issue for china and has to be addressed internally by china before accepting taiwan independence.

Are those regions as autonomous as Taiwan? Do they have their own governments, their own currencies, etc.?

The Taiwan Relations Act didn’t commit the US to defending Taiwan, just to help arm it and: “(c) The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger.”

This goes back to Little Nemo’s question too, “Are you willing to go to war for Taiwanese independence?”

One of the biggest gripes within the US State Dept. as I understand is that they think Taiwan is trying to trick the US in fighting for them. That doesn’t go over very well.

The truth is, this is probably one of the biggest question marks, because the Taiwanese "Strawberry Generation " (the kids who would be fighting) don’t really give a damn about anything if it’s not cute, cuddle, playable, etc. To get them to fight, it sometimes seems like you’d have to give them pink guns and tell them that commies don’t believe in Hello Kitty.