Sunday, 19 January Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles by 4)
Kickoff: 3:00 pm, EST
The Eagles are the hard favorite in this one. The only reason the spread isn’t bigger is the Bucs’ defense. A lot of story angles are being played up here. The Philly Daily News has set up a parody of Warren Sapp’s website (www.qbkilla.com) called www.twinkiekilla.com. The Bucs haven’t won in Philly in the last four tries, including a couple of playoff ending losses. The Eagles’ defense may be more dominant than the Bucs. And of course Donovan McNabb is coming back off the Chunky Soup curse, although IMHO he looked serviceable, not dominant last week. Jon Gruden worked for the Eagles early in his coaching career, sharing his overhyped early morning starts with things that creep through the Vet. Maybe that’s where he learned to scowl. I’m not going to make picks here just yet, but loyalty will cause me to pick the Bucs, even though my brain tells me to go the other way…
Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders (Raiders by 7.5)
Kickoff: 6:30 pm, EST
Not quite as many angles here, but still plenty of stats and things to choose from. Raiders are sizzle and the Titans are substance. Tennessee has yielded fewer than 15 points per game over their last 11 games. Gannon, the league MVP, 10 of whom went on to win the Super Bowl, is having a record breaking year at an age when many would have called it quits. Ditto Jerry Rice and his plus 40 year old body, who continues to tack onto his league records well after the 49ers gave up on him. Air McNair has been so hurt all season that he can’t even practice, yet has been playing well enough to merit MVP consideration of his own. How will Eddie George perform after getting his lights knocked out by Lee Flowers in last week’s game.
Both games are rematches of earlier season games, which ended up being the deciding factor in where these games are played. Raiders rolled 52-26 early in the season. Eagles won 20-10 in a game where Brad Johnson was constantly hurried and the Bucs scored no offensive TDs.
Let’s hear your comments, or did we lose everyone with the Divisional Playoffs?
I am so conflicted about the AFC Championship.
On the one hand, I hate the Raiders and it’ll make me unbelievably happy if they get this far and lose…again. That’s the kind of natural high that’ll last for days.
But on the other hand, objectively, I can recognize that they’re a good team that had an excellent season and deserve to go thte Superbowl. And a Pirates Superbowl (as my husband refers to it) would rock. But if they go to the Superbowl (and God help us) win…sigh*
Fucking Raiders.
Sunday, 19 January Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles by 4)
Kickoff: 3:00 pm, EST
Frankly, I’m surprised at the Iggles being the favorites here – they’ve got an explosive offense, but if you stack it up against the Bucs defense, I think the Bucs definitely have the edge. Shades of the Ravens a couple of years ago, the Bucs don’t have a phenomenal offense but their defense will carry them through. In a low-scoring game, Bucs win but don’t cover.
Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders (Raiders by 7.5)
Kickoff: 6:30 pm, EST
Gotta take the Silver and Black here. The Titans are solid as heck, but with the injuries to McNabb and George, I think their offense will suffer badly. And with the Raiders as dominant on offense as they are (and the Titans defense solid but still assailable)… I’ll take the Raiders. I’m a little leery of the spread (seven and a half is a heck of a big margin) but out of sheer loyalty, I’ll give the Raiders the benefit of the doubt; Raiders win and cover.
This is gonna be the best weekend of football in a long LONG time, and for the first time in many years I’m actually looking forward to the Super Bowl. I don’t see a blowout as has happened so often in years past; no matter who goes to the show, it’s gonna be a slugfest and a great game. (I still think it’s gonna be all-Gruden all the time.)
Titans win. Forget about George’s injury. He will be fine. If he isn’t, we won’t be hurt as Robert Holcombe has been outstanding, and probably should even be the starter IMO. McNair just has a booboo on his finger, thats nothing for him. He seems to play better the more he is hurt. The biggest factor will be who is available to play in the secondary, and how they perform. If it’s close, the Titans will win. Things have just been going their way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles by 4)
The Eagles are going to win this one. They have a very good defense and I just don’t think Tampa can overcome the pressure Philly will put on them. I didn’t see a lot of offense from the Eagles last week though against Atlanta but my money would be on Eagle to cover the 4 points.
Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders (Raiders by 7.5)
The Raiders will win this one. They have a good offense and their defense is better this year. I am not a big fan of the Raiders and Al Davis in particular. They do have the best quarterback in the playoffs and that will make the difference.
McNair has been playing with four injuries and Tennessee has won something like 11 of their last 12 games. I think he could be struck blind and still play a helluva game. And George seems to have the ability to move the pile he is under an addition two yards without any of the other team’s defense noticing – when he is “on.” Meanwhile, Holcombe is getting better and better.
Besides, the Titans deserve to win the Super Bowl considering that they lost by a yard when they last had the opportunity.
They are going to want revenge for that score in the earlier Oakland game this season. I think they are champing at the bit and will take Oakland by 6 points.
Shibbs, big thanks for getting this puppy underway. I feel so disappointed in myself for abandoning things last week…its the playoffs for god’s sake! God, I’m going to miss football come February.
Sunday, 19 January Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles by 4)
Kickoff: 3:00 pm, EST
I’m sure Shibbs is going to be frothing at the mouth watching this puppy, and I’m shocked at how diplomatic he was in his rundown. Anyone who ever read my Bears forecasts (yeah, even once they were 2-6, 3-10 and so on) knows that’s a skill I do not possess. Anyways, after seeing the Altanta game last week, I’m kinda iffy on the Iggles. They won the game easily, but I just walked away with the feeling that the Falcons outplayed them. Sure McNabb and the offense might have been a little rusty, but I’m not sure they’ll be over it coming in this week. And preparing for the 3-4 last week isn’t going to really give them a leg up against the Bucs cover 2. The key to the game might be Simeon Rice [sub]out of Illinois[/sub], if he can get off on Tra Thomas and make McNabb scramble on the untested ankle against the speed of the Bucs D then I think the Eagles could be in deep trouble on offense. Granted Thomas is one of the best there is, but Simeon has been playing really well and had a good day last weekend. The cold and the turf might slow him down enough to neutralize him, but we’ll see. People are talking about this Eagles D, but I just don’t see it. They play very well, but they aren’t in the WOW category that the Bucs are. They’ve given up alot of yards to average offenses the last couple months, and spend alot of time protecting the redzone. Thats good, but field goals are typically enough for the Bucs. If the Bucs had a rushing attack it’d be a easy call, but I think if Gruden sticks with it and keeps the defense honest and Brad Johnson stays healthy and doesn’t throw INTs, then the Bucs will make this very competitive. If Tampa can make sure that Philly has to play with a long field where they can’t dominate with the running attack they’ll win. I’m going to gamble and say they pull it off. Bucs win and cover in the upset. Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders (Raiders by 7.5)
Kickoff: 6:30 pm, EST
This game I’m really excited for. I’ve always had a serious affinity for the Titans, I felt they got screwed in Houston and I like the manner of the team. Difficult to pin point, they just jive with me. One thing I can say is that I’ve loved Eddie George ever since he was a rookie. Just a frigging stud, I hated watching him struggle last season. I wish he was a Bear. Not to mention that they have the highest concentration of Illinois alums in the NFL. And I agree with what you all have noted, Holcombe[sub]from Illinois[/sub] has been playing really well and shouldn’t hurt the Titans if Eddie is unable to go at 100%. I also love teams that use the tight end, easily the most under used postion in the NFL. I swear, every offense that has a productive tight end is successful. For some reason tight end yards seem to be more valuable (equate to victories) than WR yards. And ever since that stretch in the '00 Super Bowl I’ve wanted to see them win badly. OK, on to the match up. The real scary part for me is the god damn blitz packages the Titans run. Talentwise their defense is exceptional. However they run that modified 46 and blitz every 3rd and long, its constantly got their players way out of position. The only reason the Steelers got back into that game was due to the persistent 3rd and long blitzes which left gaping holes for Maddox to pass into. If they simply had played base defnese they probably would have been able to make the tackle, the odds are in their favor. Now, the fact that it cost them so consistently against the Steelers is one thing, it could be devastating against the Gannon led Raiders. On the flipside, I’m not sure the Raiders will have an answer for the Titans rejuvenated offense. McNair is about as tough as I’ve ever seen and Oakland’s D will wear down against the Titans running attack. The Raiders run defense hs stepped up alot, but the power attack of the Titans will probably require alot of run support from the secondary. Look out play action. Its gonna be a shootout. But I am nearly certain that the Titans will cover that fat spread. I’m a little iffy on the winner, but my gut tells me that the Titans are destined for it. They win, two underdog wins this weekend.
First off, let me say how thrilled I am that the four teams I picked as legitimate Super Bowl contenders all made it. (Trust me, even this is a lot better than I usually do. :))
As for picks…erm…Eagles and Titans. Don’t ask for explanations. And I’m not betting my “defective” old hard drive on it, either.
Eagles vs Bucs - This is a tough one. I don’t think McNabb’s scrambling is going to be much of a factor since his ankle and the fast Tampa line will keep him in the pocket most of the time. Both teams will shut down the other’s running game. But I think the Eagles will be more effective at it. It really comes down to the passing game vs the secondary. While the Tampa secondary is better than Philly’s, IMHO, McNabb is better than Johnson. This is because Johnson is more of a system QB, and I think he’ll have trouble with a defense capable of disrupting the system like Philly’s. McNabb will have more options than Johnson due to his greater mobility so I think that will help. Plus, Tampa’s troubles in the cold will play a factor.
Philly wins and I think they can cover the 4 points.
Tennessee vs Raiders - This game’s much harder to call, IMO. Mostly because the Titans have been burning me all season and I’m convinced as soon as I pick them they’ll lose just to spite me. Bastards. OTOH, I have no faith in the Raiders to pull out a big game.
Despite all that, I pick the Raiders. Both teams are about the same against the run (both pretty darn good) and terrible against the pass. Oakland has the receivers and QB best suited to take advantage of this weakness, which will in turn help their run game.
I was going to try to kick this off again this week, but I got swamped yesterday. Thanks for getting it rolling Shibboleth. I really wish I would have been around here during the regular season! It looks like lots of great football fans and talk. Next year, I suppose.
So… onto this week’s picks (not that I’m doing very well so far in the playoffs). Talk about 2 games that seem almost impossible to pick!
Bucs at Eagles
I actually like both these teams. I had McNabb in my fantasy league and he was carrying my team along until he broke his stick; I picked up Brad Johnson and he put up big enough numbers to carry me the rest of the season. Both teams seem so blue collar on defense and get by with whatever offense they can muster week to week, whether it’s explosive or not. McNabb and Staley have had the Bucs’ number lately, and it’s the last game at that stadium; factors play in the Eagles favor. Bucs don’t like being underestimated, Gruden wants a shot at the Raiders and Lincoln Kennedy (who’s been running his mouth about Gruden this week), and odds are the Bucs have to win a big game, on the road, in the cold, against a team that has owned them like the Eagles; factors play in the Bucs favor. I think the possible Gruden vs. Raiders story is just too good, it seems like destiny to me. I’ll go with Bucs to win a low scoring affair. I really don’t care, though, as I will thoroughly enjoy watching either one of these teams in the Bowl.
Titans at Raiders
Well… it really should be Steelers at Raiders, but since my beloved black and gold failed to take care of business last week I’m left in a heck of a predicament here. The Raiders seem so good most weeks this season that it’s just hard to pick against them. The Titans haven’t seemed that good to me, but they just keep doing enough to get the job done. I think the real problem here is that I just don’t see the Titans keeping the Raiders from scoring 30+ points, and I just don’t see the Titans scoring that much against the Raiders in Oakland. Despite my AFC affinity I don’t plan to root for either of these teams in the Super Bowl, but my gut is telling me that to fulfill the Gruden vs. the Raiders storyline this one has to go to the Raiders and I think they even cover that fat spread. (sorry pepper)
Because my hate for the Raiders knows no bounds. There are very few constants in my life, and one of them is that I hate the Raiders.
pepper–born and will die a Denver Broncos fan.
While I hold a similar, although not rock solid opinion on this, I’m wondering what you base this opinion on. Especially since three members of the Philly secondary made the Pro Bowl, while only John Lynch made it from the Bucs. Not that Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly weren’t just as deserving, IMHO.
It’s easy to hate the Raiders. I grew up 20 minutes from the Coliseum and they were my team until they went to LA after the 1981 season. Then they come crawling back to Oakland in 1995, wreck the Coliseum, and brought all those Hollywood Darth Raider/Back Hole/Raider Nation central casting wannabes to Oakland. They’re a caricature of tough fans. Totally laughable, and imho, a genuine embarassment to Alameda Country.
Having said that, I think they’ll beat Tennesse by at least 10 points.