Another state legislative seat flipped (#36) - Florida

[Evil_Economist]

Per an article in Vox:

Democrat Margaret Good defeated Republican James Buchanan by a 52-45 margin in a special election for Florida House District 72, marking the 36th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped in a special election since Donald Trump’s election.

Trump carried the district by a 51-46 margin

Not the huge swing we’ve seen in other districts, but a continuation of the ongoing string of Democratic victories.

So, is this good news (another win!) or bad news (much smaller swing!) for the Democrats?

[Ulf_the_Unwashed]

@Evil_Economist

Per an article in Vox:

Democrat Margaret Good defeated Republican James Buchanan by a 52-45 margin in a special election for Florida House District 72, marking the 36th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped in a special election since Donald Trump’s election.

Trump carried the district by a 51-46 margin

Not the huge swing we’ve seen in other districts, but a continuation of the ongoing string of Democratic victories.

So, is this good news (another win!) or bad news (much smaller swing!) for the Democrats?

If you can’t beat James Buchanan, one of our least effective and popular presidents, by more than a few percentage points then something is wrong.

Still, a win is a win is a win…

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Ulf_the_Unwashed

If you can’t beat James Buchanan, one of our least effective and popular presidents, by more than a few percentage points then something is wrong.

It’s Florida; a higher-than-typical base level of wrongness is to be expected.

[galen_ubal]

Is there a listing of swings in all the special elections since Trump took office? It’s my impression that they’ve been swinging by an average of 15-20% towards Democrats, but I could well be wrong.

[galen_ubal]

Okay, found a number, and I’m wrong. According to that article, the average swing has been 11.9%

@The Washington Post

Some national Republicans say the trend is overstated. “Twenty of the 35 special election wins for the Democrats since 2016 were in districts won by Hillary Clinton,” said David James, a spokesman for the Republican State Leadership Committee. “Liberal groups have been outspending Republicans on an average of 3 to 1, just to win back seats they should have never lost.”
But for years, Democrats had been spending little, and losing more — nearly 1,000 state legislative seats, many gerrymandered further out of reach after the party was routed in 2010. Starting last year, they’ve seen money and volunteers flood the sort of local races where the party had been wiped out during Barack Obama’s presidency. In many of the races they’ve lost, they’ve erased most of Republicans’ margins, often with the same pattern — strong Democratic turnout in suburbs and a Republican fade in rural voting. In an average of legislative races, Democrats have seen a 11.9 percent swing since 2016 results.

I’d still rather see a full breakdown, if anyone can find it.

[Evil_Economist]

@galen_ubal

Okay, found a number, and I’m wrong. According to that article, the average swing has been 11.9%
I’d still rather see a full breakdown, if anyone can find it.

Here you go

[galen_ubal]

@Evil_Economist

Here you go

Bookmarked, and thank you.

[Derleth]

@Ulf_the_Unwashed

If you can’t beat James Buchanan, one of our least effective and popular presidents, by more than a few percentage points then something is wrong.

Say what you will about Buchanan, at least he ended the war in Utah.

And since when did Zombuchanan become a Republican?