I think that domestic culprits are more likely than a group working directly with al-Qaeda. (Of course, it’s much too early to say one way or the other.) I have hung back from this thread because it seems to me that things are covered pretty well in the earlier thread. I think that spoke has not given the other thread a careful reading, based on his short summary of it, so I’ll reiterate a few points:
LOCAL EXTREMISTS’ BIOWEAPONS HISTORY: Larry Wayne Harris has:[ul][li]A connection to Christian Identity & Aryan Nations.[]A background in microbiology.[]Been active in vaccinating members of hate groups against anthrax.[]Stockpiled a number of biological agents.[]Told an FBI informer that he has large amounts of “military-grade” anthrax.[]Been arrested for plotting to unleash biological agents in New York and blame it on Iraq.[]Threatened to send anthrax through the mail, prior to 9/11.[]Gone on record (in 1998) as saying that he believed he would use have to biological weapons offensively.[/ul][/li] ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS’ BIOWEAPONS HISTORY:
al-Qaeda has been known to:
[ul][li]Use rotting beans & excrement to cultivate e. coli bacteria as a poison.[/ul]al-Qaeda has been suspected of:[ul][]Having contact with Iraqi agents.[/ul]Iraq is known to have:[/li][ul][li]Cultivated Anthrax for weapons use.[/li](According to Scott Ritter, who was the UN Weapons inspector in Iraq, they exclusively used the Vollum strain in their programs, rather than the Ames strain which the culprits are using.)[/ul]
As far as some claims that the “sophisticated aerosolizing agents” used indicate that the attacks are state-sponsored, it took me about twenty minutes of research on the web to find out how pesticide powder is aerosolized for easy distribution. I could do it my kitchen. I’m sure that someone who can manage sterile bacterial culture wouldn’t have too much trouble figuring it out.
The Pakistani “anthrax” letter is interesting, but, as Collounsbury pointed out, there are a lot of false positives. (Remember the Kenyan letter that everyone was making so much noise about until it turned out to be mildewy cloth samples sent from the guy’s daughter?) Even if it does turn out to be positive for anthrax, there’s no indication that there’s any connection to the American letters.
I am not saying that it is certainly a domestic attack, but it’s clear that it would be unwise to make policy decisions based on the assumption that there is a direct connection to the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks.
Sory Zenster, I don’t mean to insult you but frankly you do overreact. Or react with as much heart as head. That is perhaps neither good nor bad. I’m sure you’ve never been accused of being a calculating cold-fish, as I have.
But panic and hysteria is a bit strong. I apologize for that phrasing. Writing quickly often leads one to be less precise than one should be.
Otherwise, I thank Larry for his intervention and would like to underline my own sense that the technical aspect of the attacks sadly may be overrated.
As I noted in the other thread, my sense is that biotech has generalized a skill set and technological base which makes these sorts of things much easier than they were even 10 years ago. The banality of biotech may have hidden undersides. To my chagrin.
Thank you for clarifying, Collounsbury. No harm, no foul. And yes, both my heart and head react. I wouldn’t have it any other way. Keep up the good work. I sincerely would like to believe that we are both fighting on the same side.
I have no doubt. Frankly balance is required and we all need to be challenged. I was speaking this evening with a ‘friend’ in the community about this. We agreed that a lot of old assumptions and moorings have been cut loose. BTW I am led to understand that there is a conference on bioterrorism to be webcast by Kaiser International http://www.kaisernetwork.org/health_cast/hcast_index.cfm?display=detail&hc=363 this Tuesday. I was just informed about it.
…please ponder some things which are bugging me.
[li] It would seem that to mail letters while wearing biological suits and an air supply might draw some attention. Apparently, based on some TV stories - so I could be wrong, the anthrax letters were mailed from public mailboxes. How? Are we to assume that the anthrax terrorists drive around in chem. / bio. suits? Seems like a great way to draw attention. If, in the alternative, the letters were mailed from private boxes wouldn’t the feds. have some leads?[/li]
[li] So, put another way, why haven’t any terrorists turned up with anthrax, or dead from anthrax? Are they immune, in suits, using specialized equipment, or possibly medicated to prevent infection? If so, maybe some lab equipment, suit, vaccine, or antibiotics purchases prior to the attacks might constitute leads. Or, is all this letter creation being done in a foreign country (Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, former Soviet republic, et al) and the finished letters just sealed up and mailed here? If so the letters only have to be dropped off, only unsealed when at the destination mailbox = less danger, preparations, and precautions.[/li]
[li] Not to mention the danger inherent in transfering aerosolizing anthrax from a container into a letter. I know that some Al Qaeda members were found with chem. / bio. suits in Europe. Is that all there is to it? I wonder if one could live in an environment where anthrax is being handled all the time. Don’t you have to open a suit occasionally?[/li]
Or, is it Bayer* stockholders? Maybe another drug company? No, really, quit laughing. If one believes that GWB somehow orchestrated the 9/11 attacks and instigated the war over oil - I don’t - this theory becomes reasonable. [sub]madness[/sub]
*If Bayer holds the Cipro patent, which I think it does.
Given the small number of letters actually confirmed to be anthrax carrying, as opposed to contaminated and all other evidence, there is no reason to suppose extra-territorial prep of the letters. Indeed, that makes no sense at all.
The ‘aerosolized’ anthrax is just fine powder with additive to prevent clumping and reduce adhesion. Presuming you have a sterile and sealed transfer box/mechanism, there’s no reason to presume they have to have had biohazard suits.
BTW I missed reports of al-Qaeda members being found with biohazard suits, can you direct me to the source? I’d like to read more.
For what it’s worth, I do not believe that OBL’s group is behind the anthrax attacks in the US.
OBL’s group seems to take pride in near-obsessive organization, planning, and synchronization of attacks. Also, it seems that his group is not into making “statements” as much as causing harm.
IMHO, if Al-Quaeda had been behind the anthrax letters, they would have spent months planning things out to the nth degree, videotaping mailrooms, and figuring out how to send stuff so that the right person would open them. They would not have “Death to Israel” written in the letters - it would have been something totally innoccuous. Further, they would have posted the letters right around September 11.
As far as domestic v. foreign goes, that’s a tougher question. But I find myself agreeing with Spoons, this has the “feel” of the Tylenol guy. It will be interesting to see if the Pakistan attacks are real and of the same origin.
One last point: It seems to me that the evidence is ambiguous enough that reasonable people can differ over the source of the anthrax letters. IMHO, this is nothing like a situation where people refuse to believe that radical Muslims were behind the WTC attacks.
Over the weekend, I read that some white supremecists has planned (in the 80s?) to poison the water supply in various places (including Chicago?). So the above skepticism may be unjustified.
I heard the chemical suit story on TV, five searches later, still looking. I thought it involved the arrest of someone in Europe with ties to Al Qaeda who was carrying chemical / biological protective gear. Anyway, back to searching. It is really difficult to pick the right search terms for this. Chemical, biological, suit, protective, clothing, arrest, too many things pop up when you use all terms - or nothing if the combination is wrong. Hezballah
I did a final search with the terms: (“Bin Laden” chemical biological) and got almost 17000 hits. The upshot is he probably has tested chemical weapons in Afghanistan, possibily has acquired some biological agents from the Russian mafia or Iraq, and may have some nuclear material or briefcase nukes (less certain). The only thing which is absolutely certain is that OBL has been making a concerted effort to acquire WMDs of all kinds for several years now. It would be foolhardy to mess with that stuff without protective gear, and OBL is not a fool. Dangerous psycopathic zealot, granted, but not a fool.
Now that the anthrax is showing up in Pakistan it seems pretty unlikely that domestic terrorists are the only ones behind this, especially since OBL in his lates pronouncement called moderate Arab leaders “infidel.” Seems like he just made them enemies as the anthrax is arriving in their countries - another remarkable coincidence. Just like the anthrax appearing soon after 9/11 in the U.S., the evidence seems to be mounting that OBL is behind at least some of the anthrax attacks. Of course, there is no mutual exclusivity. Some events could be domestic and some foreign. Copycatting will undoubtedly lead to some events (mostly hoaxes) also.
According to CNN, Diane Fienstein said that the FBI got back to her on the “How many labs in the US could produce the anthrax?” question.
Apparently, there are over 2200. That’s more than 40 for each state. Probably a lot easier to get locally than from disgruntled Russian scientists or Iraqi agents.
Presuming that this is confirmed, would I officially come down 100% on the side of domestic now. What kind of domestic, I am not sure, 60-40 odds off the top of my head that it is someone with racist-right connections although not necessarily native born.
This is an interesting debate. I noted myself when the letters came out that the writing seemed like an American trying to sound like an Arab. That bit about using “Allah” in place of “God” seemed a tad too off to me. I suggested this to some coworkers, one of whom nearly beat me up. Others reacted violently. This is in New York City, liberal New York City, not half a mile from where the Trade Center used to be, in my office which has windows that used to look out on the Trade Center.
A Spanish friend pointed out to me that Daschle is not a logical target for foreigners; he’s a big shot in the U.S., but not globally. Sending fake anthrax-laden letters to Family Planning clinics in the United States isn’t really a foreign terrorist’s first impulse, either, but that happened as well. And now these cowards sent one to Senator Leahy—another Democrat. Sounds to me like radical Christian groups, particularly ones with a pro-life bent. Some of these groups, like the Army of God, have claimed to possess anthrax bacteria. I’m not sure about Operation Rescue.
I’ve never believed the anthrax attacks to be foreign-borne, not since I laid eyes on the copies of those letters. Odd that no anthrax-laden letters have made their way to the office of the (pro-life) president, whom foreigners have certainly heard of. Radical pro-life groups: that’s where the answer most likely is, I say.
Idle speculation-- Could Leahy be a logical target for racist extremists? He’s been pretty diligent about trying to make it tough for them. Among other things, he gave this speech before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Business Rights and Competition on August 1[sup]st[/sup] recommending a bill to prevent hate groups from spreading propaganda by tampering with consumer products:
Yeah, the Leahy letter certainly increases the likelihood that this is a domestic terrorist. Or at least a terrorist who has lived here long enough to understand the workings of American government. (Leahy is a committe chair, so he is not an obscure target.)
(As to the supposed failure to attack Bush, I thought they found anthrax spores in the letter-sorting facility for the White House. Am I misinformed on that point?)
Looks like investigators still have few real leads. Saw in the paper today that investigators are now saying they are wide open to both the “domestic terrorist” and the “foreign-sponsored terrorist” ideas.