I’ve played online poker on and off since they became available. And while I play mostly 10-20 to 20-40 in live games, I’ve stayed away from anything bigger than 5-10 online, on the theory that any real professional colluders will probably be in the bigger limit games.
I can tell you a couple of things about online poker - first, my win rate is nowhere NEAR what it is in live games. I don’t think I’ve made more than $1000 or so, over probably 300 hours of play.
Second, for whatever reason the swings I see online poker are far, far greater than what I see in real life. In talking with a number of other pros, they see the same thing, and a couple of very good winning players I know have given up on online poker out of frustration with the wild swings.
For example, the first time I played Paradise poker, I made over $1500 in two days playing 2-4 limit poker. Then I went absolutely cold, and trickled it all back over a week. When I was down to my last $100, it suddenly turned around, and I went on a huge rush and ran it back up to over $1000 in the space of two days again.
I’m a pretty tight, conservative player. Those kinds of numbers are outrageous. In ten years of full and part-time poker, I never had a run of cards like that. And yet, that pattern seems to repeat itself, over and over again. Huge winning streaks, marked by periods of weeks on end where I can’t hit a hand.
In real life poker, you usually see small wins, somewhat smaller losses, with a steady trend upwards. Punctuated by the occasional 30 to 50 big bet win or loss.
In online poker, my results are all over the map.
I don’t have an explanation for this. It could be a combination of wilder play, more hands per hour, and the lack of visible clues. It could be that the quality of play is both better and more aggressive. It could be non-random shuffles, either online or in the casino. It could be collusion. Or it could be more sinister, and the house is mucking about with hand frequencies to keep people playing, but I think this is a remote possibility.
In short, I think the games are honest, at least from the house’s standpoint. But there’s something different about online poker I can’t put my finger on, and the risk of collusion is always present. If you want to play, start by playing for small limits, with the notion that it’s entertainment money that you don’t care about losing. Move up in limits slowly and carefully.