Anyone have an answer? My mom just called me to tell me she’d heard that Bush was up 2% in exit polls but couldn’t tell me which channel (FoxNews or CNN she mentioned by name).
I can’t find such numbers on either website (though I’ve only looked in a cursory manner). But generally running those numbers prior to close of polling is frowned upon these days?
Anyone with television access clue me in?
CNN is not as far as I can tell. Its always on here at work but the sound is down(thank god). They are running a countdown clock of when the first polls close.
IIRC, after the 2000 mess, there was a mutual agreement not to run any numbers until the polls had closed in that time zone.
What’s the westernmost state that is considered “in play”? New Mexico? What time do the polls close there? And what time zone are they in?
Can anyone find the actual link to the alleged “MORE…” of that Drudge article?
That site hurts me.
Sure, but that’s Drudge.
And anyway, my Mom wouldn’t be checking out Drudge.
Amazingly, Hawaii. Yes, Hawaii, one of the most reliable Democratic states, this year is actually considered a possible for the Republicans.
Mostly likely New Mexico, though Nevada and Colorado are other possibilites, especially with Colorado’s proposed Amendment 36. Unless it’s a really tight race, Hawaii is not likely to matter.
New Mexico and Colorado are both in the mountain zone. Nevada’s in the Pacific. New Mexico and Colorado close at 7 PM MST, Nevada at 7 PM PST. Once again, the BBC is your friend. Just do the math into and out of GMT.
:smack: I knew that yesterday! What time is it NYC when the polls close on Oahu? Just wondering if early results might tilt the balance there? Any Hawai’i based Dopers?
Drudge is link to a pool of exit polls at [exit-poll.net/pool] but that site seems to be overloaded at the moment.
Here are some numbers from [url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/14333/4849]dailykos](http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html) which have Kerry up by 3 in Fla and 6 in Ohio as well as having significant leads in Minnesota (by 18) and Wisconsin (by 9).
It’s early in the day, so grain of salt and all that…
The progression is (without gaps, even): Eastern, Central, Mountain, Pacific, Alaska, Hawaii. So if it’s 7 PM Eastern time, it’s 6 in Central time states, 5 in Mountain time states, 4 in Pacific states, 3 in Alaska, and only 2 PM in Hawaii. Five hours later it gets to be 7 PM in Hawaii, making it midnight in NY.
Go here for poll closing times. (All times EST)
Indiana and Kentucky close at 6pm; NH, VT, VA, SC, GA, and almost all of FL close at 7pm (a couple of Panhandle counties are on central time, and close at 8pm); NC, WV, and OH close at 7:30pm (and those states should give us a very good idea of what the night will look like).
Then big groups of states close at 8 and 9; after 9pm, the only ‘battleground states’ left will be Nevada and Iowa, which close at 10. By 11, everything will be closed except Alaska, which closes at 1am EST.
Now, those (notoriously unreliable) early exit polls:
------ AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45. 48 42. 60 52 51. 51 50 58. 52 49. 57
-Bush 55. 51 57. 40 48 48. 47 48 40. 43 49. 41
Take them with a grain of sand, said Kos, thereby getting under Brad DeLong’s skin.
Oh yeah: the election isn’t over yet, but we have a winner, a big winner: we, the people. In all my years of following politics, I’ve never seen anything like this fervor to turn out and vote. I’m dead serious - whoever wins tonight, it makes me proud to be part of this crazy exercise in democracy we call America.
Movement to Kerry in the Iowa Electronic Markets. I assume Brad’s interpreting the numbers correctly; he’s a big-league economist and all.
Turnout numbers from CNN, via MyDD:
MyDD doesn’t provide a link to CNN. But Jerome and Chris have never lied to me before.
If these numbers are accurate, it’s time for the party to begin!