Here’s an argument I was pondering recently: between such potentially catastrophic problems as terrorism and nuclear proliferation, global warming, potable water shortages, bird flu, and impending oil shortages (among many other such problems of worldwide concern), civilization as we know it is doomed. We could probably muddle through one, maybe two, of these coming problems intact. But ALL of them? There are just TOO MANY. If one doesn’t get us, if two don’t get us, one of the remaining ones will.
It seems to make sense to me, but somehow, I’m not convinced of my own argument. Anyone care to share analysis, supporting or detracting?
All we need is a good barbarian invasion to finish us off…
Well, terrorism is certainly serious…but I don’t see it bringing down our entire civilization (I assume when you say ‘civilization’ you mean global…not just the US).
Nuclear proliferation has been going on for quite some time so I’m not overly concerned with this. Thats not to say its not a serious problem of course.
Global Warming…well, this could potentially be very serious. Or it could not be serious at all. Afaiac the jury is still out on what Global Climate Change will MEAN in terms of how radically it will effect the environment and over what time period.
Potable water shortage…well, I know its a concern out here in the South West but I wasn’t aware it was a global problem. Well, thats not true…I was vaguely aware it was a global problem, I just didn’t think it was civilization show stopping important. Can’t we produce potable water from sea water through reverse osmosis? Besides, one of the effects of Global Warming (IIRC) is…more rain. So…problem solved. (the wink btw means I’m just kidding here for the humor impaired)
Bird Flu…again, this is like the Global Warming thing. Might happen, might not. I suppose we are over due for SOME kind of world wide pandemic. I suppose it will all depend on how serious it is…and how quickly governments respond (especially those governments where the outbreak first starts).
Oil shortage…I’m not all that concerned about this one to be honest. But then I’m an optimist (which you obviously aren’t ). I think that by the time the real crunch comes wrt oil we will have viable alternatives for personal transport. Same with coal. Then again, by running out of oil maybe we’ll head off the whole Global Warming thingy .
I suppose looking at all these grim things one could fret about them all hitting at once. And it certainly might happen. Toss in a super volcano or two, another sea zone major earthquake and the odd asteroid and yeah…we could be in serious trouble on this rock.
Look how quickly this ‘civilisation’ appeared: a mere few thousand years, even when we didn’t know what we were doing, feeling our way forwards by inspired guesswork!
Now look at 21st Century Earth. Nearly 7 billion people dispersed over almost every corner. More importantly, look at the knowledge stored in books and electronic memory, spread almost as universally. Even if we underwent some terrible gigadeath catastrophe, return to ‘civilisation’ would be complete in mere centuries if not decades. Even global thermonuclear war or a dinosaur-killer meteor would not kill every single human on Earth - the Southern Hemisphere might even suffer only darkness and birth defects.
So, if “the end of civilisation as we know it” means a few nukes going off somewhere, or a terrorist attack killing many thousands, or some disease killing millions or rising sea levels swallowing a few cities, don’t worry - there’ll still be plenty of civilisation around elsewhere.
Terrorism & nuclear proliferation will not end civilization. Even if nuclear war breaks out (which has almost happened several times) it won’t end civilization anymore than WW2 did. It’ll just change it in ways that make 9/11 look weak by comparison.
Bird flu, even if it is as bad as some people predict (over a billion dead) will not end civilization. It’ll just slow it down. The black plague killed half of europe and civilization kept going.
Water shortages may not be a major problem as we continue to find better & cheaper ways to purify water.
Oil shortages do bother me a bit. But at the end of the day we have tons of various non conventional oil reserves we can tap into once they become price competitive. We can convert coal or dead animals into oil, we can get more oil from Canada & Russia than we currently are but it isn’t cost effective to get it out. But yeah, at our current rate and refusal to seriously consider fuel efficiency for cars we are pretty much going ot have major problems. I don’t think oil is used for industrial energy on a global scale though, things like coal and nuclear are used for that.
Civilization will survive. I have faith in technology I guess. True there are problems but we’ll probably find total or partial cures for them in due time.
Remember how we were entering a new ice age, the Soviet nuclear arsenal was on a hair trigger, people were giving up on society, cocaine and heroin everywhere, disco played openly, crime skyrocketing, latchkey kids, the third world joining the Soviet bloc, inflation, deficits as far as the eye could see, crumbling infrastructure, our military a joke (remember Stripes?), riots, lawlessness, open racism and sexism acceptable, no thai food anywhere, no computers, the automobile industry imploding due to Japanese competition, oil shocks, pollution and litter everywhere, nihilism, short shorts on men, chest hair, the Red Brigades, the Iranian hostage crisis, I could go on and on.
Now THERE was a decade when civilization was going down the tubes! And we were thankful it wasn’t worse! Although everyone was sure it was going to get much much worse, very very soon. As in, the survivors fighting the rats for a chance to gnaw the carcasses of the dead bad.
But you tell that to the kids today, and they won’t believe you.
Don’t forget the sun being extra active even though we’re supposed to be in a solar minimum, or the oceans are becoming increasingly devoid of life, or the expansions of the dead zones in them, or the coral reefs dying, or that there are 6.5 billion people on this Earth who will be very hungry and very pissed off if global warming causes our crops to fail, or that volcanoes are erupting and earthquakes are shaking with increased frequency, or that all-out war is looming over the oil shortages that are soon to be expected.
Echoing the voices above, I think it would take an extinction-level event to even knock us back into the stone age, as it were; and given all the tech and archival info. lying around in the aftermath, reaquisition and reverse-engineering of lost capacities would probably be relatively swift in historical terms.
I don’t think civilization is ever “intact” from one major epoch to another, major calamities or no. I would imagine rapid climate change is going to be our biggest challenge over the next few centuries, and while I highly doubt adaptation will be painless for humanity, whatever kills us off, that won’t be it. Civilization will not be “intact”, of course. I mean, major cities like New York and London will be well below sea level, and possibly underwater, and developments like that tend to alter the course of history in pretty unpredictable ways. I don’t think we’re looking at Mad Max-style dystopian collapse, however, which is what I think you’re getting at.
As an aside (but related to the thread, at least part of it)…what did ya’ll think of Cecil’s latest column on Global Warming? I could practically hear the heads exploding. I haven’t been brave enough to check if there are any threads yet in the comments forum…I assume there is a 6 pager there right now (if it hasn’t been sent to The Pit yet)…
You forgot to mention that in the late 70s Punk Rock ended civlilzation in Great Britian. Then in the 80s Satanic Heavy Metal ended it in both the UK & the US, and in the 90s Gangster Rap ended civilization in the US again. I don’t know what will end civilization this decade. Maybe the war in Iraq, just like the Civil Rights movement, Vietnam war & the hippie counter-culture ended US civilization in the 60s.
(the wink btw means I’m just kidding here for the humor impaired)