It would be unusual for a political party to publicly announce it’s nominee three years before the general election, but Hillary was considered a front runner soon after Obama kicked her political ass in 2008.
Without actually having another candidate to chose from, it’s difficult to currently determine if any voters will tip towards that candidate-to-be-determined-later.
Not sure I see the distinction. Would you be OK with the ATF “getting their dirty paws all over your gun collection” if your employer said it was OK? (Don’t fight the hypothetical)
As long as people are living and feel like Trump is not really getting in the way of their lives, Trump’s popularity comes down to how much they like or dislike him, and the intensity of these feelings. And at this point, I think it’s fair to say that his personality, his attributes are baked into the cake. Absent of any kind of major problem, like a deep economic recession or disastrous war, Trump will be regarded as the giant bigoted douchebag by his detractors on the left, and a fighter for the good ole days when white men ruled the country by those on the right. His approval rating will most likely be somewhere between 45 percent on his best days and 35 percent on days when he’s causing twitter storm drama. He won the last election this way, and if Democrats are divided and disorganized, or if they send out a weakling candidate, then he could win in 2020 this way as well.
Liberals are also pinning too much of their hopes on the Mueller case. It might get some of his cabinet thrown in the clink but the Mueller case is probably going to be a huge let-down for progressives. What will finally do Trump in is his own gross incompetence, and the consequences that we will all have to endure as a result. Bob Mueller could find evidence that Trump had someone murdered and if the economy’s fine, it won’t matter. But if the average American is worried about paying the rent or where he’s going to find his next meal, then it won’t matter of Trump reaches a peace deal with North Korea, Iran, and Russia. Americans will demand his impeachment.
Watching Democrats act like they have 2020 in the bag already is like watching a car driving towards the edge of a cliff in slow motion. I’m really hoping we don’t have a repeat of the 2016 election but it is eminently possible. The fact that the biggest movement with the most momentum on the left right now, the Parkland kids and their supporters, has not coalesced around a popular Democratic pol who could potentially be a good candidate in 2020 - and that it centers around a very politically-risky position, gun control - does not seem to bode well.
When, in recent history, has a pol with people coalescing around him or her two and a half years prior to Election Day, won? Why do we need a front runner now? So the Pubs can build a strong campaign against them?
Bill Clinton? Out of the blue. W? Wasn’t even the front runner among Bushes. Obama? Wasn’t that the black guy with the big ears and a funny name that spoke at the DNC a couple years ago? Trump? Bwa-ha-ha-ha! All out-of-left-field candidates that won.
I’m not saying Dems will win in 2020, but I feel good about the pool of possibilities. We don’t need to lock this shit up now. Early front runners have this nasty habit of shitting the bed- Hillary, Romney, McCain, Gore, Dole. Give me a sleeper that shows his or her colors during the primaries and surprises the competition.
I gotta say, as much as we sometimes lock horns, I think you’re actually a reasonable dude. I enjoy debating with you, even if I occasionally spazz out in response to some of your posts.
I guess my logic was based on the fact that a large part of his base are religious evangelicals who might forgive deceit, harassment, general idiocy, and even treason. But sex is where they would draw the line. Maybe their disgust was offset by the fact that at least he didn’t use a condom.
Oh please. He could hold a press conference, announce he’s funded a dozen abortions from his various extramarital affairs, and evangelicals would still line up to slobber the golden knob.
For the record, I disagree with HD on like 99% of his posts but I don’t think he trolls. I think he often posts responses that make me think, whether I agree or not.
And he tolerates my occasional excesses (which of course are very rare)
Yes, I agree with the sentiment that the Dems need to take their time and get this selection right. Let Hillary keep taking the brunt of right wing anger right up until the last moment and then spring a fresh face on the '20 election to galvanize that large and growing millennial vote. I doubt if Trump’s approval rating ever climbs over the 50% mark but, still, incumbents are 5-2 over the last 50 years and the Trump Thumpers have proven that they will never abandon him. It’s doable but it won’t be easy.
