What does the GOP do about 2020?

If you’ll remember I have never been a Trump fan:

I’llhave to do some soul searching if Trump wins. But it ain’t going to happen. It’s fun to be at the circus, but when you walk out of the tent you turn back into a grown up. Just like what happened to Howie Dean I think when the actual votes are cast people will turn back into adults and vote for someone other than Trump.

And like Trump himself I never expected him to win the nomination:

[I now think the worst thing in his mind would be if he won the Presidency. I don’t believe he ever wanted to win the primaries and never expected to. He wanted to put on a show, run his big mouth, maybe, just maybe win a state or 2, then get to have the spotlight while he makes a speech at the convention.

Then when a real Republican won against a weak, untrustworthy Hillary he could brag the rest of his life that he help make sure she didn’t become POTUS. And he could bitch about not getting a cabinet position or go on and on the next 4-8 years how he would’ve been a better leader than President Cruz or Rubio.

The stupid shit that comes out of his cake hole. Nobody that wants to win does that. He’s like a dog that chases cars. If the dog actually catches one he doesn’t know what to do with it. So he just pisses all over it.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=764711&page=2)

But he was the GOP candidate and noway was I voting for Hillary. It’s not that I don’t like the positions he takes on issues (I agree with them), it’s that he’s a narcissistic nut job who will flip at any given moment, as evidenced by his betrayal of the NRA and GOA.

The moment otherwise law abiding people get arrested/prosecuted for owning a piece of plastic, a ban that prevents nothing, he will have permanently lost support of a large demographic of his previous supporters. And that’s in addition to all the other previous supporters he’s pissed off.

I do not see Trump winning Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, or Michigan again. Add in Iowa, Florida, maybe even Arizona, Indiana, and North Carolina and you’ve got an epic landslide for the Democratic candidate.

So what does the GOP do? Dump Trump and support someone else? Convince him to declare victory and not run again? Back Trump and let him lose huge? Hope for a valid third party challenge that splits the vote in their favor?

As a Republican voting conservative I see 2020 as a massive train wreck for the GOP!

So, you think his support’s gonna crater on account of the bump stock ban??

That’s gonna be the thing that causes a big chunk of his base to desert him?


Do the Republicans have a choice?

Whatever things Trump may be bad at, campaigning is not one of them. Trump can suck the oxygen out of any right wing challenge.

Too much will happen between now and the election to allow speculation. Perhaps the reason we haven’t seen an international incident taking advantage of the Trump chaos is that they are waiting for 2020 so they can give Trump a dog to wag.

Other. President Pence will run for election in his own right, following his pardon of the forcibly-resigned Individual-1.

I went with other. Let’s look at the options presented and compare some historical races that might apply. LBJ and the 1968 race is the closest that might apply. He didn’t lose, but probably would have if he’d run. This was a situation where the president held a position, in that case to continue the Vietnam war, that was unpopular with his base. For Trump to end up the same way, he would similarly need to be in favor of something his base disagrees with. So far that hasn’t happened, and probably won’t since his base tends to be very forgiving. Worst case scenario for Trump is something like the 2008 map was for McCain (but with Indiana still red). I doubt he can do any worse than that. There is no scenario where I see a blowout race like Reagan vs. Mondale happening.

They’re going to splinter off into the Need To Kill More People Faster party.

Sorry for the double post.

I think the most likely scenario is that Trump runs and loses a close race. Since that wasn’t an option I went with other.

Look, Trump managed to capture a certain element of America. He represented - honestly or not - the frustration and fear among working and middle class voters who feel themselves being left behind by an evolving economy. Those people who know - but don’t really understand why - that the existing power structure isn’t really trying to solve their problems. They weren’t sure what needed to be done, but they new the people saying the same things they’ve always heard weren’t going to do anything for them.

Or, to sum up, they didn’t want the same old thing that - to them - wasn’t helping. They wanted someone to blame for their stress levels and Trump gave them groups to focus on. Illegal immigrants, democrats and the existing republican power structure were easy - and in some cases correct - targets for them to blame for the economic pressures they were under.

A drowning man will grab any branch in the flood, after all.

That, combined with support from the evangelical right - who are primarily interested in nomination of reliable judges - was enough to put him over the top.

It’ll be enough to get him the nomination again should he pursue it. Whether he’ll keep the support of the economically distressed exurban and rural vote is a whole nother matter. I’m very doubtful as his actions have made things even tighter in the short term (I believe long term as well but that’s yet to be demonstrated).

I suppose there’s room for a primary challenge. But it’s going to rough to fight against Trump making the argument that it’s just the existing Republicans - who haven’t given a damn about YOU - trying to keep people down again.

It’s also forced an interesting resurgence in populism and rights of working class voters in the Democratic field as well. Medicare for All now seems like a sine qua non for running for President on the D side. And we’re really at the point where the minimum wage is there, too.

Gonna be an interesting time.

He’ll have a primary challenger who will lose. Given that most Rs still approve of him Rs have no choice but to do as they’ve done and back him. He loses, probably not horribly by historic standards and not for sure depending on the D and the campaign. But like a solid loss.

The Rs go back to trying to expand their appeal with the new members of SCOTUS and elsewhere of the Judiciary to show for it. It takes a cycle and they recover. Next time they are the "change"again.

I’m not sure if the question is
(a) What WILL the GOP do?
(b) What SHOULD the GOP do to maximize its chance of working more evil?, or
© What COULD the GOP do to maximize benefit to America?
So I didn’t answer.

The option "“Hope for a valid third party challenge that splits the vote in their favor?” seems rather sadistic. Trump is so deranged that even many Republicans oppose him so the best hope for the country is … that two sane candidates run against each other splitting the non-deranged vote so Trump wins a 3rd term! :eek: I guess we should be happy nobody’s clicked that box yet.

And we learn OP doesn’t like Trump, a specific complaint being … a minor move to control assault rifles! Comedy gold!

Serious question: Is there a thread where “conservatives” explain what the word “conservative” means? Quite frankly, I no longer have a clue.

The RNC has already made their choice: RNC votes to give Trump ‘undivided support’ ahead of 2020.

This myth should be long dead. It was about culture (largely race and ethnicity), not the economy. Nate Silver has shown this definitively. Trump supporters weren’t poorer than non-Trump-voters. They had more “cultural anxiety” (racism and bigotry).

Trump OWNS the GOP. What does the GOP do? whatever their owner tells them to fucking do, that’s what. The GOP has absolutely zero choice here, Trump has the complete and overwhelming support of the Republican base.

South Carolina GOP has made their choice: Now Republicans in some states want to cancel primaries to protect Trump from challengers.

I’ve got a question that’s in a few parts — unless it stalls out at the first answer, or the second, and so never gets to the third.

First: would Trump, in 2020, beat Hillary Clinton?

If the answer is ‘no chance,’ well, then, fine. But if the answer is ‘yeah, probably’, then my follow-up question is this:

Who, among the Democrats, is significantly similar to Hillary Clinton?

Again, if the answer is ‘none of them, she was unique’ — fine. But if a case can be made for ‘most of them are nothing like her; but a few of them, wow’ — then what should we figure about what 2020 holds for the GOP and Trump?

If I had to guess, I’d say “probably” (because tons of people voted 3rd party or didn’t vote at all because they thought Hillary was a shoe-in), to the first question, and for the second, “none of them have the same history of being attacked for 30 years as one of the most evil people in America by conservatives”.

It’s still too early to make predictions about 2020, IMO. I feel hopeful, and the betting markets agree.

No one else has lost to Trump so everyone else is different. Clinton before that would definitely beat Trump 2020.

I’d kind of figured on that answer to the second part, but that turns it into a matter of degree: yeah, the GOP doesn’t have 30 years — but if that was the key factor, and if they know that and can start attacking the right Democrat now, then per the thread title: how hard can they attack before the election? Could they? Would they?

I’m sure they could and will attack every candidate as much as they can. But they don’t have 30 years to do so, and thus it probably won’t be nearly as effective or resonant as it was against Hillary Clinton.

Well, they’ve suppressed Democratic voters all they can, now they’re trying to do the same with Republicans.