Are we at Trump’s tipping point?

Yes, you did. The party of fiscal responsibility indeed. :rolleyes:

Oh, wait, you limited your question to 2018, didn’t you? Why is that?

It shouldn’t be. But picking a name at random from a list of reliable ideologues you’ve been handed isn’t easy?

writing a longer response.

I didn’t do that, YOU did that when you said “… people may not realize how much they got screwed by the Cut Cut Cut Bill until they do their returns, *after *the next elections.” It was pretty obvious to me that you were talking about the 2018 tax year. On that subject, your own freakin’ cite says:

I love the sound of whistling past the graveyard.

He had a list of people who hated abortion and loved guns. He picked one. A chimp could have done the same with names of such people placed in a hat. If he, heaven forbid, get a second pick he’ll just draw another name of gun-loving abortion haters out of a hat.

I think his pick was a bit savvier than that, but either way, if he does pick a second one like Gorsuch, he’ll get another round of applause from me.

Jesus people. Enough with the Gorsuch business already.

It’s something he promised to do during the campaign and something he did once he took office. It is just about as rock solid of an example of campaign promise kept as is imaginable.

Even if you believe this seat rightfully belongs to Merrick Garland or that it does not have a high degree of difficulty, it is unequivocally a promise kept.

Who said it wasn’t?

It’s something he promised to do. It’s something he did.

Some people voted for him for because of this promise. Those people are pleased.

Many conservatives abandoned their principles for the prospect of of a conservative judiciary and a CostCo membership sized tax break.

The ultimate tipping point comes when the repeated trade-war and personal-vendetta hits to the stock market build into a definite Trump Slump.

How would you define a “Trump Slump”?

Stormy told him “no” 5 times?

For those who are unfamiliar with the weeds of polling, Rasmussen has strong house effects: they tend to favor Republicans. They are not the worst poller - some polling outfits are suspected of literally fabricating data, using other firm’s results as a guide. 538’s algorithm weights polling outfits by their past performance in predicting elections. Rasmussen is a C+ outfit, while Gallup gets a B-. Not too different.

The key value addition 538 offers is that they take an average of this volatile data, avoiding cherry picking effects (cough). Click the link if you want to compare Obama’s trend to Trump’s. Or any other recent President to Trump. Trump’s approval trend is substantially below all of them, with the exception of 1 brief period of Clinton’s and an extended period of Gerald Ford’s.

Go to the bottom of the page:

That was a nice way of pointing out the phenomenon of cherry picking.

  1. He didn’t plunge the world into nuclear war today.
  2. He didn’t get to personally execute one of those DACA wannabes who crossed the border yesterday.
  3. He couldn’t goosestep his way along Pennsylvania Ave. in front of a military parade today.
  4. The White House kitchen ran out of double-scoop vanilla ice cream.

Not as long as they can still find a way in their own minds to blame Obama somehow.

That’s especially true early in campaign season, then they gradually bring their reported results closer to honesty so that their final numbers, the ones that get the most attention, are not out of line with the rest of the polls.

Probably when an actual politician can persuade the public at large they’re not blood sucking advocates for whoever bribes them the most.

Trump is president - the part that made the difference and the core of his vote - because he is not a politician. That’s what you are reduced to.

Good chance you’ll get a celebrity after Trump as well.

In other news, living proof that they really do stack shit that high:

Donald Trump Jr. Continues to Make Terrible Accessory Decisions

Nice to see him finally self-identifying.

There’s no Syria thread yet, so I’ll post it here. The Syrian bombing occurred about an hour ago. As of 9 hours ago, Trump’s trendline at 538 was 40.8% approval, 53.2% disapproval, netting out to -12.4%.

This event should push Trump to a year-to-date high, I say. (Not hard as 538’s peak approval was 41.5%.) 45% would not shock me at all.