I didn’t do that, YOU did that when you said “… people may not realize how much they got screwed by the Cut Cut Cut Bill until they do their returns, *after *the next elections.” It was pretty obvious to me that you were talking about the 2018 tax year. On that subject, your own freakin’ cite says:
He had a list of people who hated abortion and loved guns. He picked one. A chimp could have done the same with names of such people placed in a hat. If he, heaven forbid, get a second pick he’ll just draw another name of gun-loving abortion haters out of a hat.
Jesus people. Enough with the Gorsuch business already.
It’s something he promised to do during the campaign and something he did once he took office. It is just about as rock solid of an example of campaign promise kept as is imaginable.
Even if you believe this seat rightfully belongs to Merrick Garland or that it does not have a high degree of difficulty, it is unequivocally a promise kept.
For those who are unfamiliar with the weeds of polling, Rasmussen has strong house effects: they tend to favor Republicans. They are not the worst poller - some polling outfits are suspected of literally fabricating data, using other firm’s results as a guide. 538’s algorithm weights polling outfits by their past performance in predicting elections. Rasmussen is a C+ outfit, while Gallup gets a B-. Not too different.
The key value addition 538 offers is that they take an average of this volatile data, avoiding cherry picking effects (cough). Click the link if you want to compare Obama’s trend to Trump’s. Or any other recent President to Trump. Trump’s approval trend is substantially below all of them, with the exception of 1 brief period of Clinton’s and an extended period of Gerald Ford’s.
That’s especially true early in campaign season, then they gradually bring their reported results closer to honesty so that their final numbers, the ones that get the most attention, are not out of line with the rest of the polls.
There’s no Syria thread yet, so I’ll post it here. The Syrian bombing occurred about an hour ago. As of 9 hours ago, Trump’s trendline at 538 was 40.8% approval, 53.2% disapproval, netting out to -12.4%.
This event should push Trump to a year-to-date high, I say. (Not hard as 538’s peak approval was 41.5%.) 45% would not shock me at all.